Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[sealbach]

poof or not, it's got a significant amount of cyclonic turning that was not as evident as before

[Ed Mahmoud]

Winds at the buoys are decreasing, and pressures rising slightly. Don't see much evidence of an LLC, just a MLC. Trof axis nearing the TX coast.

How close are we to an image of a 1960's TV sci-fi series medico pronouncing mortality?

[srainhoutx]

Winds at the buoys are decreasing, and pressures rising slightly. Don't see much evidence of an LLC, just a MLC. Trof axis nearing the TX coast.

How close are we to an image of a 1960's TV sci-fi series medico pronouncing mortality?

[Extremeweatherguy]

[HURAKAN]

TWD 805:

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST
OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[srainhoutx]

Hmmm. Warranted a Special Feature and now Conducive for development per TWD...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1746.shtml?

[destruction92]

yeah, Destruction92----it will never make it into the GOM either...

I never suggested that it would not "make it into the GOM either". Seriously, give it a rest. We all have our own opinions, but it does not mean we have to go out of our way to disparage one another.

I don't see much potential with this system because it looks unhealthy right now, has no convection around its center of circulation, has no low-level circulation, and is way too close to the coast. On top of that it is near a cold front that is still active...this front has not stalled out and is depicted with blue lining on the surface analysis map...see for yourself...

[terrapintransit]

Just a major rain maker

[HouTXmetro]

Maybe it will follow the trend with the convection relaxing in the PM to limit any potential rainfall threats...

[KatDaddy]

Currently fading away. A few pop-up storms in a mass of mid-level cloudiness

[HouTXmetro]

Do you all think the convection will start ramping back up in the next 2-4 hours?

[HURAKAN]

484
WHXX01 KWBC 120043
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0043 UTC WED SEP 12 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20070912 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070912 0000 070912 1200 070913 0000 070913 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.2N 94.9W 26.8N 96.0W 27.5N 97.1W 28.3N 98.1W
BAMD 26.2N 94.9W 26.6N 95.8W 27.3N 96.7W 28.5N 97.1W
BAMM 26.2N 94.9W 26.7N 96.0W 27.4N 96.9W 28.3N 97.6W
LBAR 26.2N 94.9W 26.4N 95.6W 27.1N 96.5W 28.1N 97.2W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070914 0000 070915 0000 070916 0000 070917 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.0N 98.6W 29.3N 101.1W 30.4N 105.5W 32.8N 107.8W
BAMD 29.9N 97.2W 30.8N 97.7W 31.3N 100.5W 34.4N 102.6W
BAMM 29.2N 98.0W 29.2N 99.9W 29.9N 104.3W 32.5N 107.2W
LBAR 29.5N 97.4W 32.4N 95.7W 33.7N 91.9W 35.4N 86.9W
SHIP 45KTS 56KTS 63KTS 65KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.2N LONCUR = 94.9W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 26.0N LONM12 = 94.6W DIRM12 = 340DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 25.0N LONM24 = 94.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Talk about concensus!!!

[KatDaddy]

As WXman stated......mucho rainfall for SE TX but not much else. The rain-ruined weekends continue onward

[Ed Mahmoud]

Pressure still falling slightly at databuoy South of Freeport...

[HoustonTexas]

How much rain can we expect in Houston?

Looks like the curve back east is not as certain now.

[jasons2k]

What a headache. One one hand, the convection is completely falling apart & it looks pitiful, on the other, I see a ship report with a pressure of 1010.7 south of Galveston and a waterspout was reported an hour ago over Copano Bay...we usually don't see waterspouts in the evening time unless something is going on. I don't think we'll really know what plans 90L has until tomorrow...

[BigA]

For what its worth, weak western gulf systems seem to often follow the opposite of the DMIN DMAX rules, flaring up in the afternoon and dying down in the evening. I wouldnt write it off as a potential tropical cyclone yet, especially if it refires tonight or tomorrow morning.

[HURAKAN]

Tomorrow's DMAX should be imperative for this system.