EX INVEST 94L Thread

[BigA]

The trough is going to hang around for very long. It will be moving out by next week.

Take a look at the 12z GFS and ECMWF 8 to 10 day ensemble means:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... tcomp.html

I really dont want to be picky about typos, but do you mean that it "is going to stay around for very long" or that it "isn't going to stay around for very long" ? Thank you much.

In any event, the 8-10 day ensembles dont really show a digging trough across the eastern US and GOM, but my interpretation could be faulty.

[alienstorm]

Afternoon visible loop shows a little tighter Low moving every so slowly to the NNE.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[cycloneye]

18z NAM Loop

For those interested in the NAM model here is the 18z run.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

thanks derek for the explanation to my
questions earlier...that explains it

[Thunder44]

The trough is going to hang around for very long. It will be moving out by next week.

Take a look at the 12z GFS and ECMWF 8 to 10 day ensemble means:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... tcomp.html

I really dont want to be picky about typos, but do you mean that it "is going to stay around for very long" or that it "isn't going to stay around for very long" ? Thank you much.

In any event, the 8-10 day ensembles dont really show a digging trough across the eastern US and GOM, but my interpretation could be faulty.

Your interpretation is correct. I edited to say "is not going to stay around for very long".

[BigA]

Afternoon visible loop shows a little tighter Low moving every so slowly to the NNE.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

I sorta agree. I dont really see a movement east or west...maybe an ever so slow drift to the north. Does look a little less broad.

[Thunder44]

360
ABNT20 KNHC 082112
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY. SURFACE
PRESSURES REMAIN LOW IN THE AREA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE LOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

[Derek Ortt]

not moving to the NNE... still crawling to the west

[Nimbus]

Its too early to be sure about the direction of motion, if anyone could say for sure they should be working at the NHC.
Based on just the last few hours observation from the visible loop, It looks like some of the circulation will pass over the tip of the Yucatan inhibiting development. Otherwise if this were really going to track NNE Key West and south Florida are going to be in for some trouble in a hurry.

[Derek Ortt]

its not too early at all to have a good idea of the motion. It is a fairly easy forecast... into the Yucatan and a flooding threat

[cycloneye]

RL3AO it has been a long time that the scale chart has not been posted.Looks like a good moment with this TWO.

[RL3AO]

[wxman57]

Yeah, most models move it inland into the Yucatan during the day tomorrow, so not much time offshore remaining. Such a weak system may maintain an LLC inland for a few days. What's left could be drawn northeastward (not north) ahead of the cold front across Cuba and the Bahamas late Thursday. But the moisture should stay east of Florida, as stated in the south Florida discussions above.

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 21:15 UTC

Looking better by the hour.

[cpdaman]

sure does

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

especially when you turn the speed up and watch it spin

good thing it is headed westward otherwise this would become a problem potentially fast IMO

[mightyerick]

Again!!!! Another system aiming to Central America!!!
however, it is so near to land!! That should prevent it for gain hurricane status, cutting its time over warm waters. looks like another false-alarm invest in this really weird season.

[mightyerick]

i just dont understand this season... we have a niña evenet... but... it looks like a Niño shearing everything!!! Dry air everywhere, a lot of subtropical systems, short-living storms. IT IS A NIÑO!!!!

ACE value is falling down for first time ever!!!! Systems are generating negative ACE values!!!

(Another invest and I would cry)

[Vortex]

Becoming much better organized...Would not be surprised if it gets kicked to the ene(ahead of deepening trough) to a position just south of western/central cuba in 3-4 days. We may see it stall or meander near the caymans for several days....Thereafter, well ahve to see how the pattern evolves after the deep trough begins to lift to the NE..

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Spin is evident..No Questions asked..

[gatorcane]

Reading through this discussion, I see some opinions that South Florida has nothing to worry about here. Based on the NWS discussion I posted, it would seem the moisture will stay SE of South Florida

Question for discussion:

If this thing develops can we say south Florida is in the clear?