Tropical Depression INGRID: Global & BAM Models

[SouthFloridawx]

I wouldn't totally count on re curvature just yet. Even if we do get a trough/ull in the later period, we probably want to wait and see the how deep the low becomes. If it is weaker, it won't be steered by the upper levels, but will be steered more by the mid level steering layer.

If the NHC is forecasting a weakening system late in the forecast period... I wouldn't be suprised if the system gets pushed back westward to the north of the islands.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 130051
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0051 UTC THU SEP 13 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT (AL082007) 20070913 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070913 0000 070913 1200 070914 0000 070914 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.6N 46.0W 14.2N 47.4W 14.7N 48.3W 15.0N 49.4W
BAMD 13.6N 46.0W 14.0N 47.1W 14.3N 48.0W 14.7N 48.7W
BAMM 13.6N 46.0W 14.1N 47.3W 14.6N 48.2W 14.9N 49.1W
LBAR 13.6N 46.0W 14.1N 47.7W 14.9N 49.4W 15.5N 51.2W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 45KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070915 0000 070916 0000 070917 0000 070918 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.5N 50.3W 16.6N 52.7W 17.9N 55.7W 19.3N 58.1W
BAMD 15.4N 49.4W 17.3N 50.6W 19.8N 51.4W 22.5N 51.5W
BAMM 15.4N 49.9W 16.7N 51.7W 18.1N 53.6W 19.7N 55.2W
LBAR 16.5N 53.1W 18.3N 56.9W 20.3N 60.3W 22.8N 62.7W
SHIP 50KTS 56KTS 55KTS 56KTS
DSHP 50KTS 56KTS 55KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.6N LONCUR = 46.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 13.1N LONM12 = 44.1W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 42.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



Still a TD.

[DrewFL]

GFDL:

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1229 UTC THU SEP 13 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT (AL082007) 20070913 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070913 1200 070914 0000 070914 1200 070915 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 47.7W 14.3N 48.9W 14.5N 50.2W 14.6N 51.4W
BAMD 13.8N 47.7W 14.1N 48.9W 14.5N 50.0W 15.0N 50.9W
BAMM 13.8N 47.7W 14.2N 48.9W 14.5N 50.0W 14.7N 50.9W
LBAR 13.8N 47.7W 14.4N 49.1W 15.2N 50.8W 16.1N 52.3W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 36KTS 40KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 36KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070915 1200 070916 1200 070917 1200 070918 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 52.7W 14.7N 55.0W 15.7N 57.8W 16.9N 60.2W
BAMD 15.6N 51.9W 17.2N 53.6W 19.3N 55.1W 21.2N 56.3W
BAMM 15.0N 51.9W 15.5N 53.8W 16.3N 56.0W 17.5N 58.2W
LBAR 17.0N 54.0W 18.8N 57.2W 21.0N 60.4W 23.5N 63.0W
SHIP 44KTS 47KTS 47KTS 49KTS
DSHP 44KTS 47KTS 47KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 47.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 46.1W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 44.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[windstorm99]

I smell fish.....

[baitism]

I doubt it will take that far of a northerly course if it doesn't actually develop into something soon.

[Gustywind]

GFDL:

Seems that GFLD loves the islands since 3 or 4 consecutively runs....hope it will fish quickly for those who lived in the islands

[DrewFL]

GFDL is just pointing out that there won't be much of a system once it gets to the end of that track......if it gets to the end of that track!

[windstorm99]

GFDL is just pointing out that there won't be much of a system once it gets to the end of that track......if it gets to the end of that track!

Exactly my point this is forcasted by most if not all models the conditions in front of this depression are not good for significant intensification.

[OuterBanker]

Let's see, number of named storms since Dean (prior storms were mostly really subtropical) 5. Number of landfalling storms 5. That's 100%, maybe it's time for a fish. And I'm glad our yearly threat is already over (a whimp if I must say). But I'll still be a little nervous for the next month. The 06z gfdl did take this south but it also dissapated it too.

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 131720
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT 08L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 13

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.8 47.7 285./ 8.9
6 14.0 48.0 292./ 3.7
12 14.2 48.4 303./ 4.2
18 14.6 48.8 311./ 5.6
24 14.7 49.5 277./ 6.7
30 15.0 50.0 304./ 5.9
36 15.2 50.5 296./ 4.7
42 15.5 51.1 292./ 6.9
48 16.0 51.9 302./ 9.4
54 16.3 53.0 289./10.4
60 16.6 54.1 281./11.3
66 16.9 55.2 286./11.0
72 17.0 55.9 281./ 6.9
78 17.3 56.8 285./ 9.1
84 17.2 57.9 267./10.5
90 17.8 58.9 301./10.7
96 18.0 59.6 286./ 6.8
102 18.4 60.6 294./10.7
108 18.5 61.3 279./ 6.7
114 18.7 62.0 285./ 6.9
120 18.7 63.0 270./ 9.3

STORM DISSIPATED AT 120 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.


12z GFDL dissipates it in 120 hours.

[KWT]

Probably runs into that high shear that is forecasted. Interesting to see the GFDL also slows down the depression to 3.7kts at 6hrs, which should be about now. Will be interesting to see the strength forecast from the GFDL and also to compare it to the SHIPs forecast.

[cycloneye]

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.09.2007



TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 47.6W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082007



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 13.09.2007 13.6N 47.6W WEAK

00UTC 14.09.2007 14.2N 48.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 14.09.2007 14.7N 50.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 15.09.2007 15.2N 51.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 15.09.2007 15.6N 53.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 16.09.2007 16.3N 54.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 16.09.2007 16.6N 56.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 17.09.2007 17.1N 57.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 17.09.2007 17.1N 58.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 18.09.2007 17.8N 59.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 18.09.2007 18.5N 60.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 19.09.2007 19.6N 60.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.09.2007 20.5N 61.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12z UKMET.It seems to keep at least a weak storm during the period with some peaks and valleys.

[cycloneye]

12z Intensity Animation.

It peaks at 58kts.

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF Animation

12z HWRF mantains it as a storm during all the run.

[cycloneye]

KWBC 131835
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1835 UTC THU SEP 13 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT (AL082007) 20070913 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070913 1800 070914 0600 070914 1800 070915 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.1N 48.2W 14.3N 49.4W 15.0N 50.8W 15.2N 52.0W
BAMD 14.1N 48.2W 14.4N 49.1W 14.9N 49.9W 15.6N 50.8W
BAMM 14.1N 48.2W 14.4N 49.3W 15.0N 50.4W 15.4N 51.4W
LBAR 14.1N 48.2W 14.4N 49.4W 15.4N 51.0W 16.4N 52.6W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 35KTS 40KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 35KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070915 1800 070916 1800 070917 1800 070918 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.5N 53.4W 15.5N 56.2W 16.2N 58.8W 17.2N 61.1W
BAMD 16.4N 51.6W 18.6N 53.0W 20.7N 53.9W 23.2N 53.2W
BAMM 15.8N 52.5W 16.4N 54.7W 17.2N 57.1W 18.5N 58.9W
LBAR 17.4N 54.4W 19.3N 57.8W 21.6N 61.4W 24.3N 63.7W
SHIP 44KTS 48KTS 49KTS 49KTS
DSHP 44KTS 48KTS 49KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.1N LONCUR = 48.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 47.1W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 45.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


SHIP mantains it as a moderate Tropical Storm after 48 hours.

[KWT]

Interesting, the SHIPS don't see the shear being high enough to weaken the system ,rather just high enough to effectivly halt the development of the system after 72hrs, seems pretty reasonable actually.

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS animation

It shows a storm that goes with the fishes.

[knotimpaired]

[attallaman]

I haven't been paying that much attention to TD #8 today; I've been focused on Humberto for most of the day but I did take a look at some of the models on TD #8 just a while ago and it looks like it could turn out to be a fish storm. Would that be a pretty accurate statement on TD #8's status this evening? Feedback anyone?