Tropical Depression INGRID: Global & BAM Models

[windstorm99]

Models in good agreement...

Which is pretty frightening.Once they hve come together in agreement,it is pretty much set as to the direction a system is going.Maybe slight variances along the way.Its pretty clear Ingrid is going to impact the US

18z runs look much better for SFL, NE of the Hebert Box.

[Blown Away]

If TD8 follows those model tracks it will almost 100% miss SFL.

[DESTRUCTION5]

If TD8 follows those model tracks it will almost 100% miss SFL.

Im thinking your having problems with Geography today..LOL

It sure don't look like 100% too me..

[windstorm99]

If TD8 follows those model tracks it will almost 100% miss SFL.

If this ends up north of puerto rico my opinion is south florida should then begin to watch closely.Especially if its still moving WNW.Most models indicate a bend back to the west sort like a stair step.

[JTD]

Hmm,

I seem to count 5 models that trend westward and indicate a possible U.S. threat down the road and 4 models that have a sharper right turn.

Does everybody agree with that?

[JTD]

Also where is the 18Z GFDL?

[Blown Away]

If TD8 follows those model tracks it will almost 100% miss SFL.

Im thinking your having problems with Geography today..LOL

It sure don't look like 100% too me..

Give me examples of storms that passed NE of 20/60 and affected SFL. I'll give you Andrew, I didn't say 100% but awefully close.

[DESTRUCTION5]

If TD8 follows those model tracks it will almost 100% miss SFL.

Im thinking your having problems with Geography today..LOL

It sure don't look like 100% too me..

Give me examples of storms that passed NE of 20/60 and affected SFL. I'll give you Andrew, I didn't say 100% but awefully close.

Umm Id ignore the Clip,Bamms and Lbar...What you left with is all the more reliable models moving this west..well south of 20 N

[canegrl04]

What the..?NOGAPS looks like it is retro grading this system

[CalmBeforeStorm]

If TD8 follows those model tracks it will almost 100% miss SFL.

Im thinking your having problems with Geography today..LOL

It sure don't look like 100% too me..

Give me examples of storms that passed NE of 20/60 and affected SFL. I'll give you Andrew, I didn't say 100% but awefully close.

The only models that bring it outside those coordinates are the lbar, bamd and clipper, all basically worthless.

[Brent]

Hmm,

I seem to count 5 models that trend westward and indicate a possible U.S. threat down the road and 4 models that have a sharper right turn.

Does everybody agree with that?

Kind of reminds me of Frances, and the official NHC track is not all that different.

[skysummit]

The 18z GFDL is back south again.....


827
WHXX04 KWBC 122322
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT 08L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 12

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.5 45.1 290./ 9.9
6 13.5 45.6 270./ 5.0
12 13.6 46.4 279./ 8.1
18 13.8 47.3 279./ 8.3
24 13.9 47.7 290./ 4.5
30 13.9 48.2 265./ 4.6
36 13.9 48.7 271./ 5.4
42 13.9 48.8 243./ 1.1
48 14.1 49.5 294./ 6.8
54 14.2 50.2 276./ 6.7
60 14.3 51.0 278./ 8.3
66 14.6 51.6 291./ 5.9
72 14.8 52.7 280./11.2
78 15.3 53.4 307./ 8.6
84 15.6 54.7 284./12.4
90 16.0 55.7 289./10.4
96 16.1 56.8 278./11.2
102 16.2 57.9 275./10.4
108 16.3 59.0 275./10.4
114 16.1 60.0 260./ 9.6
120 15.8 60.4 229./ 5.6
126 15.9 61.7 274./12.2

[JTD]

Hmm,

I seem to count 5 models that trend westward and indicate a possible U.S. threat down the road and 4 models that have a sharper right turn.

Does everybody agree with that?

Kind of reminds me of Frances, and the official NHC track is not all that different.

I agree. Remarkably similar to Frances at this point.

[JTD]

The 18z GFDL is back south again.....


827
WHXX04 KWBC 122322
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT 08L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 12

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.5 45.1 290./ 9.9
6 13.5 45.6 270./ 5.0
12 13.6 46.4 279./ 8.1
18 13.8 47.3 279./ 8.3
24 13.9 47.7 290./ 4.5
30 13.9 48.2 265./ 4.6
36 13.9 48.7 271./ 5.4
42 13.9 48.8 243./ 1.1
48 14.1 49.5 294./ 6.8
54 14.2 50.2 276./ 6.7
60 14.3 51.0 278./ 8.3
66 14.6 51.6 291./ 5.9
72 14.8 52.7 280./11.2
78 15.3 53.4 307./ 8.6
84 15.6 54.7 284./12.4
90 16.0 55.7 289./10.4
96 16.1 56.8 278./11.2
102 16.2 57.9 275./10.4
108 16.3 59.0 275./10.4
114 16.1 60.0 260./ 9.6
120 15.8 60.4 229./ 5.6
126 15.9 61.7 274./12.2

Thanks for posting! If that verifies, I have a very very difficult time believing that this system will miss CONUS to the east.

[Brent]

The 18z GFDL is back south again.....


827
WHXX04 KWBC 122322
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT 08L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 12

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.5 45.1 290./ 9.9
6 13.5 45.6 270./ 5.0
12 13.6 46.4 279./ 8.1
18 13.8 47.3 279./ 8.3
24 13.9 47.7 290./ 4.5
30 13.9 48.2 265./ 4.6
36 13.9 48.7 271./ 5.4
42 13.9 48.8 243./ 1.1
48 14.1 49.5 294./ 6.8
54 14.2 50.2 276./ 6.7
60 14.3 51.0 278./ 8.3
66 14.6 51.6 291./ 5.9
72 14.8 52.7 280./11.2
78 15.3 53.4 307./ 8.6
84 15.6 54.7 284./12.4
90 16.0 55.7 289./10.4
96 16.1 56.8 278./11.2
102 16.2 57.9 275./10.4
108 16.3 59.0 275./10.4
114 16.1 60.0 260./ 9.6
120 15.8 60.4 229./ 5.6
126 15.9 61.7 274./12.2

Caribbean bound!

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z GFDL SW twards end...

[destruction92]

Give me examples of storms that passed NE of 20/60 and affected SFL. I'll give you Andrew, I didn't say 100% but awefully close.

Umm Id ignore the Clip,Bamms and Lbar...What you left with is all the more reliable models moving this west..well south of 20 N[/quote]

It's never too late to make new history.
I don't think it's always a good idea to use the past to predict the future...the past and future are 2 different realities and are in many respects independent of each other...sort of.

[miamicanes177]

The latest 18z gfdl does indeed shift significantly southward, and if that track verifies you can take it to the bank for a US hit. No way this sucker is going straight west throughout the entirety of his life like Dean and Felix. There will be weakness down the road to pull it up no doubt

[DESTRUCTION5]

The latest 18z gfdl does indeed shift significantly southward, and if that track verifies you can take it to the bank for a US hit. No way this sucker is going straight west throughout the entirety of his life like Dean and Felix. There will be weakness down the road to pull it up no doubt

Still alot of obsticles...Hati, Yuc, Shear Ect..

[Recurve]

The latest 18z gfdl does indeed shift significantly southward, and if that track verifies you can take it to the bank for a US hit. No way this sucker is going straight west throughout the entirety of his life like Dean and Felix. There will be weakness down the road to pull it up no doubt

Still alot of obsticles...Hati, Yuc, Shear Ect..

Yep, too early to cash any chips in on this.

Here's a sat/track/models image. First and last forecast position shows with island names.