Tropical Storm Bonnie Intermediate Advisory Number 14a
Statement as of 1:00 PM CDT on August 11, 2004
...Bonnie accelerating northeastward and getting stronger...
a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect
for the Florida Panhandle and northwest Florida from the
Alabama/Florida border eastward to the mouth of the Suwanee River.
A Hurricane Warning may be required for portions of the watch area
later today.
At 1 PM CDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 26.2 north...longitude 89.5 west or about
205 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Bonnie is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph. This general
motion...with a gradual increase in forward speed...is expected to
continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...Bonnie is
expected to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle Thursday
morning.
Maximum sustained winds recently measured by reconnaissance
aircraft are 65 mph...with higher gusts...and reports also
indicate that a small eye may be forming. Additional
strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Bonnie
could become a hurricane later tonight or Thursday morning.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from
the center. NOAA buoy 42001 located just east of the center of
Bonnie reported a 10-minute average wind of 56 mph with a gust
to 67 mph during the past few hours.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the right of where the center makes landfall.
Recent heavy rainfall over the Florida Panhandle has saturated the
ground. Additional rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with
isolated higher amounts...can be expected near the path of Bonnie
by Thursday morning.
Repeating the 1 PM CDT position...26.2 N... 89.5w. Movement
toward...northeast near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 4 PM CDT.
