Alex Advisories

[Stormsfury]

Here's a new image. Two vortices rotating W-NW, one coming south down the SC coast:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alex4.gif

I just created one using PSC's McIdas generator ... pretty much the same thing and image.

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Temp/Charleston080104.gif

[ColdFront77]

All these vorticies and the important definate spin within the convection.

[Stormchaser16]

Yup, but the Extrap pressure is down to 1010 MB.... interesting. Still with 3 circulations all north of the convection, i wouldnt expect much development from this system within the next 24 hours. Of course, minimal TS strength is possible.

[vacanechaser]

That was at 10:50am ET right?

Next recon flight is scheduled for 18z(I'm assuming that is when it leaves, meaning it'll be an hour or so later before they get there).

yep.. your right.. however, it is interesting how the pressure was 1mb lower.. this report also came in late... because i checked for it around 12pm and found ob 6 ...

[Brent]

Yup, but the Extrap pressure is down to 1010 MB.... interesting. Still with 3 circulations all north of the convection, i wouldnt expect much development from this system within the next 24 hours. Of course, minimal TS strength is possible.

Yep... just noticed that.

[Stormsfury]

Here's a new image. Two vortices rotating W-NW, one coming south down the SC coast:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alex4.gif

Which center is the one the NHC used at 11am?

Probably the one in the middle of the 3 distinct swirls in the image

[Stormchaser16]

What is causing the shear over the system?

[wxman57]

Here's a shot with McIdas - medium zoom:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alex5.gif">

[wxman57]

What is causing the shear over the system?

I'll plot you a satellite with upper winds over it. Moment, pls...

[Brent]

Nice images.

[Stormchaser16]

Thanks wxman

[wxman57]

Here's a shot showing 17:15Z satellite and 150mb streamlines and wind barbs. The NE shear was greater at 150mb than 200mb. You can see that the TD is on the eastern edge of a ridge. That ridge is moving east and weakening, so the shear may drop off briefly this evening before the SW winds aloft move in.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alex6.gif">

[Stormsfury]

Although, it hasn't been horridly dry this year, the averages for several locations along the coast, and particularly along the coast, where seabreeze convergence lacks and all the thunderstorm activity develops inland in a diurnally driven convective pattern, many locations are still below normal for the year in rainfall ...

The grounds in the Lower Carolinas aren't that saturated either ATT, so it should be able to hold many inches of rain without any significant problems (unless of course, you get 4" of rain in a couple of hours) ...

Swells shouldn't be too high either, although, riptides could be a problem and is recommended that anyone venturing into the coastal waters (surfing, etc) should be well aware of these conditions.

Charleston, SC rainfall was roughly 2½" below for the month..(3.77" for the month, Normal - 6.13" .... and to couple this with a below normal rainfall in June as well for the CHS WFO ... also roughly 2½" below normal, 3.50" (5.92" normal) ... (Charleston Downtown rainfalls are even less) ... the potential for heavy rains along the shoreline and just inland could be a welcome blessing to recharge ground moisture.

SF

[WXBUFFJIM]

Perhaps an indication of a minimal tropical storm potentially. Pressures remain fairly high though and the winds are occurring mainly in heavier squalls. We shall see what this piece of data received recently influences on potentially the intensity of this system.

000
URNT12 KNHC 011704
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/1704Z
B. 31 DEG 29 MIN N
79 DEG 08 MIN W
C. NA
D. 35 KT
E. 123 DEG 45 NM
F. 211 DEG 41 KT
G. 121 DEG 038 NM
H. EXTRAP 1010 MB
I. 23 C/ 277 M
J. 25 C/ 276 M
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/1
O. 0.5/2.0 NM
P. AF861 0401A CYCLONE OB 12
MAX FL WIND 41 KT SE QUAD 1650Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.

;

[Stormchaser16]

O ok so its not the Bermuda high its an upper level ridge behind the front in the SE?

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Storm Alex Intermediate Advisory Number 4a


Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on August 01, 2004



...The first tropical storm of the season forms...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear to Cape
Hatteras North Carolina...including the Pamlico Sound. A Tropical
Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect from Edisto Beach South
Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina.

Reports from an Air Force reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that Tropical Depression One has strengthened into
Tropical Storm Alex...the first named storm of the 2004 North
Atlantic hurricane season.
At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical
Storm Alex was located near latitude 31.7 north...longitude
79.1 west or about 80 miles...south-southeast of Charleston
South Carolina.

The center of Alex has been essentially stationary over the past
several hours...however...a slow northward motion is expected to
begin later today with a turn to the north-northeast tomorrow. On
this track...the center of Alex is expected to be very near the
South Carolina coastline tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts...mainly in squalls to the south and east of the center. Some
strengthening is possible over the next 24 hours.

The minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is
1010 mb...29.82 inches.

Rainfall accumulations of 1-2 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected in association with Alex.

Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...31.7 N... 79.1 W. Movement
...Stationary. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1010 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.

Forecaster Franklin

[Stormchaser16]

Well 35 KT from the vortex WOULD make this a minimal TS..... pressures remain at 1010 mb........

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Alex Intermediate Advisory Number 4a


Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on August 01, 2004



...The first tropical storm of the season forms...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear to Cape
Hatteras North Carolina...including the Pamlico Sound. A Tropical
Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect from Edisto Beach South
Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina.

Reports from an Air Force reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that Tropical Depression One has strengthened into
Tropical Storm Alex...the first named storm of the 2004 North
Atlantic hurricane season.
At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical
Storm Alex was located near latitude 31.7 north...longitude
79.1 west or about 80 miles...south-southeast of Charleston
South Carolina.

The center of Alex has been essentially stationary over the past
several hours...however...a slow northward motion is expected to
begin later today with a turn to the north-northeast tomorrow. On
this track...the center of Alex is expected to be very near the
South Carolina coastline tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts...mainly in squalls to the south and east of the center. Some
strengthening is possible over the next 24 hours.

The minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is
1010 mb...29.82 inches.

Rainfall accumulations of 1-2 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected in association with Alex.

Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...31.7 N... 79.1 W. Movement
...Stationary. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1010 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.

[The Dark Knight]

We will see.....

[Stormchaser16]

Its official, TS ALEX has FORMED