Frances Advisories

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Stormsfury
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#101 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Aug 25, 2004 11:30 am

Derecho, to format it ... use the code format like you would use for urls, imgs, and such ...

For example ..

Code: Select all

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX (AL062004) ON 20040825 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040825 0000 040825 1200 040826 0000 040826 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.1N 35.1W 11.5N 37.7W 12.2N 40.0W 13.1N 42.1W
BAMM 11.1N 35.1W 11.5N 37.4W 12.2N 39.5W 13.1N 41.3W
A98E 11.1N 35.1W 11.5N 38.2W 11.8N 41.2W 12.1N 43.9W
LBAR 11.1N 35.1W 11.5N 38.0W 12.3N 40.9W 13.2N 43.6W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040827 0000 040828 0000 040829 0000 040830 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.0N 43.9W 15.5N 46.7W 16.3N 48.8W 16.2N 51.2W
BAMM 14.0N 42.8W 15.7N 44.9W 16.8N 46.3W 17.9N 48.2W
A98E 12.3N 46.4W 12.6N 50.4W 13.0N 54.1W 13.5N 58.3W
LBAR 14.3N 45.9W 16.3N 49.6W 18.0N 52.2W 18.5N 54.3W
SHIP 61KTS 73KTS 77KTS 77KTS
DSHP 61KTS 73KTS 77KTS 77KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.1N LONCUR = 35.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 32.1W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 10.1N LONM24 = 29.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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#102 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Aug 25, 2004 11:32 am

wxman57 wrote:
Stormsfury wrote:One thing to note is how LARGE the overall circulation pattern is of TD #6 ...

and in response look to the SE of the depression ... SW winds at the 950mb level E of the 40ºW line, south of 10ºN ... monsoon trough ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


Actually, those are 1 deg lat/lon lines on the image, so it's not that big of a system. Only about 100-150 miles across.


I was actually using the floater 1 VIS loop for the scope of the circ.
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#103 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 25, 2004 11:36 am

Cool. Come on Frances!! :)
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#104 Postby hurricanefreak1988 » Wed Aug 25, 2004 1:14 pm

Wouldn't it be something if Frances decided to come up here to NC. The Fran-Frances confusion would be crazy :lol:
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Re: Hi-Res McIdas Shot of Frances (to be)

#105 Postby msbee » Wed Aug 25, 2004 1:23 pm

wxman57 wrote: Definitely looking like a threat to the NE Caribbean next Monday/Tuesday, and possibly a future east U.S. coast threat. I calculate speed of movement is now 18 mph just north of due west.

wxman, if it's already moving slightly north of west, wouldn't that possible mean it would steer north of the islands, as the computer models are suggesting?
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TD6 / FRANCES - STARTING TO SPIN UP

#106 Postby stormernie » Wed Aug 25, 2004 1:24 pm

Expect TD6 to be upgraded at 5 PM, last couple of hours have seem much better organization and buildup of overal cloud canopy.

Also, seems to be moving almost due west, don't see this pasting 20 degrees north until at least it passes 60 degrees west.

Ernie
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2.5 T number for TD#6/Frances=11.5n-39.8w

#107 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 25, 2004 1:26 pm

25/1745 UTC 11.5N 39.8W T2.5/2.5 06 -- Atlantic Ocean
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#108 Postby hurrmia » Wed Aug 25, 2004 1:39 pm

storm2k that link to ts alex. :lol:
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#109 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 25, 2004 1:41 pm

There haved been some problems to get rid of that old information as we had problems with the server a few days back.
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FRANCES AT 5 PM !!

#110 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 25, 2004 1:56 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

The heading changed from noname.
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#111 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:00 pm

YAY!!!!! Good Afternoon Frances! :) :) :)
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#112 Postby hurrmia » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:03 pm

it look like it frances!!!!!!!!!!! it look like it already ts by 5:oopm or before :?:
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3:15 PM EDT Storm2k Update of Tropical Storm Frances

#113 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:04 pm

The tropical depression located midway between Africa and the lesser antilles now has becomed Tropical Storm Frances with maximun winds of 40 mph moving west at around 17 mph.In terms of intensity a gradual proccess of intensification will take place with it as it moves more west to westnorthwest and it may become a hurricane in 3-4 days.About the future track of Frances it is still not clear if it will feel the effects from a trough that is at the east coast now so those who live in the islands must watch the progress of the storm to see if it gets more closer to the islands or not.More details from the storm2k forecast team later.

Forecaster Luis Martinez (Cycloneye)
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed Aug 25, 2004 7:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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charleston_hugo_veteran
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Heres FRANCES...................

#114 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:04 pm

FIXED!


Image
Last edited by charleston_hugo_veteran on Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:09 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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#115 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:04 pm

Not surprised looking at the circulation on visible imagery ... although, the lack of deep convection ATT would proclude Frances being nothing more than 40 mph (35 kts) ..

The spin is quite vigorous, and Frances is just needing

1) a little more on the vertically stacked side
2) a sustainable and deep blowup of convection

And she'll take off ...

SF
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#116 Postby OtherHD » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:05 pm

That's TD 9 in the EPAC...
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#117 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:06 pm

LOL!
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#118 Postby Guest » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:09 pm

yea, once Frances gets more convection it should strengthn quickly.
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Nice banding on TD 6

#119 Postby dixiebreeze » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:09 pm

this afternoon. Looks like Frances is winding up:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg
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#120 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Wed Aug 25, 2004 2:09 pm

OtherHD wrote:That's TD 9 in the EPAC...


Sorry ...it's fixed now!
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