Hurricane Emily Advisories

[Portastorm]

NHC better hope Emily bends to the west in the next 12-18 hours or they'll blow their landfall forecast.

[Normandy]

NHC better hope Emily bends to the west in the next 12-18 hours or they'll blow their landfall forecast.

\

Well the only way they could blow their landfall forecast is if it hits outside the cone.....dont think thats gonna happen.

[Portastorm]

NHC better hope Emily bends to the west in the next 12-18 hours or they'll blow their landfall forecast.

\

Well the only way they could blow their landfall forecast is if it hits outside the cone.....dont think thats gonna happen.

alright good point, I guess what I meant is that Emily needs to start bending west in 12-18 hours or she will make landfall in Texas and not Mexico.

[deltadog03]

ok, this is a little interesting.....

HIGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND COULD EVEN BUILD WESTWARD

i thought for sure it was building westward??

[Stratosphere747]

ok, this is a little interesting.....

HIGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND COULD EVEN BUILD WESTWARD

i thought for sure it was building westward??

You left out it could even build "more" westward...Consider the "more" silent as that is what they are implying.

I'll give you an "A" for effort though..

[HURAKAN]

So far the best storm I have seen coming back almost from death is Tropical Cyclone Ingrid. Remember when she emerged in the Gulf of Carpentaria Ingrid was almost alien-looking, and in a few hours began to look beautiful until reaching cat. 5.

[Mac]

Convection beginning to fire around the eye again. She's not done just yet.

[cycloneye]

They are waiting for a message from recon that is why the delay.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2005

...EMILY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH
OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST OR ABOUT 410 MILES...
660 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 440 MILES...710 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE NEARING THE
COAST OF NORTHEAST MEXICO LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 INCHES OR LESS
ACROSS YUCATAN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...22.6 N... 91.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[Wnghs2007]

Well it is slowly becoming better organized but thank god it took a huge hit when crossing over the Yucatan!

[Thunder44]

Brent do you read the advisory first before you post it here? Or do you just copy and paste. You are too fast.

[cycloneye]

Brent do you read the advisory first before you post it here? Or do you just copy and paste. You are too fast.

Yeah he is like a lighting strike. I am rapid too but he beats me.

[Brent]

Brent do you read the advisory first before you post it here? Or do you just copy and paste. You are too fast.

No. I sometimes skim through it EXTREMELY fast just to get the basics, but I never read the entire thing. I keep refreshing the page waiting on it while I have a separate browser window open with how to post a reply here and then just copy/paste.

[cycloneye]

18/2345 UTC 22.8N 91.3W T4.5/4.5 EMILY -- Atlantic Ocean

Surely at 10 PM CDT advisorie the winds will be bumped a little based on the recon data and T numbers now up from 4.0 this afternoon.

[Derek Ortt]

fi we dont see stronger recon winds, 65KT will remain

[Sanibel]

It has the look of bursting by later this evening...

[Derek Ortt]

we wont see any bombing when the cloud tops warming as they have been doing the last 90 minutes

[Brent]

HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
0300Z TUE JUL 19 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH
OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 92.1W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......125NE 75SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 50SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 92.1W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 91.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.6N 93.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.2N 96.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.5N 98.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 25SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.5N 101.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 92.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2005

...EMILY STRENGTHENS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH
OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 92.1 WEST OR ABOUT 365
MILES... 590 KM... EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 400 MILES...
640 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.

THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 983
MB...29.03 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 INCHES OR LESS
ACROSS YUCATAN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...22.9 N... 92.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[jkt21787]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 190234
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2005

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN TRYING TO WRAP AROUND EMILY'S LARGE RAGGED
EYE...AND...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT YET
FALLEN...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 90 KT IN THE NORTHEAST EYE WALL. THIS CORRESPONDS TO A
SURFACE WIND OF 80 KT...WHICH IS THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME RATHER SYMMETRIC AS EMILY SHEDS THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...SIMILAR TO THE
LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN. EMILY COULD BE APPROACHING MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN
RAPIDLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.

INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED A LITTLE AND IS ABOUT 300/13. ALL
AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF EMILY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION UNTIL LANDFALL. THE 18Z GFS TRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO
THE NORTH BUT THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...AND IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
TRACK.

NO CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 22.9N 92.1W 80 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 23.6N 93.9W 85 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 24.2N 96.2W 95 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 24.5N 98.5W 70 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 21/0000Z 24.5N 101.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

This is a first for me, beating Brent