Tropical Storm Ophelia

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cjrciadt
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#101 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:24 pm

Image
The UKMET is um.....
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#102 Postby LanceW » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:26 pm

re: cjrciadt

The UKMET creates an arrow pointing to where it will hit... :D
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#103 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:26 pm

The UKMET path is as good as any with the weak steering currents
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#104 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:28 pm

LanceW wrote:re: cjrciadt

The UKMET creates an arrow pointing to where it will hit... :D
You're right I wish all the models could be as simple to read. :roflmao: Oh crap the GFDL just showed up.
Last edited by cjrciadt on Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#105 Postby KatDaddy » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:29 pm

For what its worth from the HPC Disc they also agree on GOM with strong high pressure building over the SE US

SOUTHEAST...
NO MATTER HOW FAR NORTH THIS POTENTIAL TROP CYC GETS...THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BUILDING OVR THE SOUTHEAST/WRN ATL SHOULD
FORCE IT WWD/WSWWD EVENTUALLY... SIMILAR TO KATRINAS TRACK BUT
FARTHER NORTH. THE ECMWF IS ONE OF THE WORST MODELS IN FCSTG TROP
CYC MOTION... USUALLY SHOWING A WWD BIAS IN THE SUBTROPICS...AND
IT IS THE MOST WWD OF ALL THE GUIDANCE. THE CAN/NAM/UKMET/NCEP
ENSMEAN STILL SHOW/HINT AT FULL RECURVATURE WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
LOOK OF THE UPPER PATTERN IN THOSE MDLS. THE COORDINATED POINTS
ARE CLOSEST TO THE 06Z GFS AT THE SFC AND 00Z NOGAPS... WHICH
NORMALLY SHOW GREATER SKILL W/TROP CYCS THAN THE ECMWF.
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#106 Postby Amanzi » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:31 pm

sweetpea wrote:
HurricaneGirl wrote:
sponger wrote:Either way, this will be a huge rain even for Florida!
Holy Crap it's coming right for us! :eek:


Sure looks that way-that 8am Sat point is right over my head. Debbie


Debbie, do your self a favor, when the grannies here about this there is going to be a scramble for gas. I think people are going to be spooked because of all the images they have been watching on TV. I will decide tonight if I need a hotel res.. My house is on the barrier island on the A1A, so I get evacs first. I dont think this storm will be too scary for us (hey thats just my opinion!) Besides I still have a very very unsound roof from last year, so I take no chances with my kids and all the massive oak trees here. I learnt from last year, try be one step ahead of the crowd.
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#107 Postby nequad » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:32 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.4N 78.1W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162005



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 06.09.2005 26.4N 78.1W WEAK

00UTC 07.09.2005 27.1N 78.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.09.2005 28.0N 79.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.09.2005 28.1N 80.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.09.2005 29.0N 80.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.09.2005 28.1N 80.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 09.09.2005 28.8N 79.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 10.09.2005 30.2N 79.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.09.2005 30.6N 77.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 11.09.2005 31.6N 76.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 11.09.2005 31.5N 75.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 12.09.2005 30.7N 75.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 12.09.2005 31.4N 75.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
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#108 Postby KatDaddy » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:32 pm

Oh yeah........and what does Joe B really say once it gets to the GOM.
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#109 Postby nequad » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:34 pm

WHXX04 KWBC 061727
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN 16L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 6

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 26.6 78.3 360./ .0
6 26.3 78.5 212./ 4.2
12 26.3 78.8 276./ 2.7
18 26.4 78.9 340./ 1.2
24 26.7 79.1 327./ 3.6
30 26.9 79.4 298./ 3.9
36 26.7 79.6 216./ 2.3
42 26.9 79.6 8./ 1.5
48 27.2 79.6 354./ 3.0
54 27.3 80.1 282./ 4.3
60 27.1 80.5 242./ 4.3
66 27.2 80.8 297./ 3.2
72 27.5 81.3 295./ 5.0
78 27.5 82.0 276./ 6.4
84 27.6 83.1 275./ 9.9
90 27.6 84.4 269./11.2
96 27.7 85.5 273./10.1
102 27.7 86.6 274./ 9.1
108 27.8 87.7 272./10.1
114 28.2 88.9 291./11.8
120 28.7 90.0 295./10.4
126 29.5 90.9 308./11.0
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#110 Postby hicksta » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:34 pm

The GFDL has had a very good grip on many storms. I am truly worried it might have a grip on this one two.
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#111 Postby tracyswfla » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:36 pm

Where is the GFDL grafic?
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#112 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:36 pm

nequad wrote:WHXX04 KWBC 061727
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN 16L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 6

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 26.6 78.3 360./ .0
6 26.3 78.5 212./ 4.2
12 26.3 78.8 276./ 2.7
18 26.4 78.9 340./ 1.2
24 26.7 79.1 327./ 3.6
30 26.9 79.4 298./ 3.9
36 26.7 79.6 216./ 2.3
42 26.9 79.6 8./ 1.5
48 27.2 79.6 354./ 3.0
54 27.3 80.1 282./ 4.3
60 27.1 80.5 242./ 4.3
66 27.2 80.8 297./ 3.2
72 27.5 81.3 295./ 5.0
78 27.5 82.0 276./ 6.4
84 27.6 83.1 275./ 9.9
90 27.6 84.4 269./11.2
96 27.7 85.5 273./10.1
102 27.7 86.6 274./ 9.1
108 27.8 87.7 272./10.1
114 28.2 88.9 291./11.8
120 28.7 90.0 295./10.4
126 29.5 90.9 308./11.0


BAD GFDL!!! BAD!!! :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :eek: :eek:
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#113 Postby BreinLa » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:36 pm

Please Please stay out of the gulf. And yes I am wishcasting but after last week, I am entitled
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#114 Postby tracyswfla » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:37 pm

BreinLa wrote:Please Please stay out of the gulf. And yes I am wishcasting but after last week, I am entitled


More than entitled to wishcast!
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#115 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:37 pm

GFDL takes it inland just west of Grand Isle, LA. Let that be wrong... please.
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#116 Postby Dmetal81 » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:39 pm

BreinLa wrote:Please Please stay out of the gulf. And yes I am wishcasting but after last week, I am entitled


Yes you are.... and even though my Family lives in Daytona, Ill still wish it into Florida before LA, they need a break for a bit!
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#117 Postby Amanzi » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:40 pm

Bre... Im wishcasting this one away for you as well!!

As usual at this time of year, I normally get a ts watch or warning for my birthday present, its on friday.. please dont mess up my birthday TD 16, go play with Maria and Nate!!!!! :roll:

Correct me if im wrong, but was not ophelia a name from a Shakespear play... Midsummer nights dream or the Merchant of venice???
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#118 Postby tracyswfla » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:43 pm

Amanzi wrote:Bre... Im wishcasting this one away for you as well!!

As usual at this time of year, I normally get a ts watch or warning for my birthday present, its on friday.. please dont mess up my birthday TD 16, go play with Maria and Nate!!!!! :roll:

Correct me if im wrong, but was not ophelia a name from a Shakespear play... Midsummer nights dream or the Merchant of venice???


Hamlet? I am googling....
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#119 Postby Dmetal81 » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:45 pm

Amanzi wrote:Bre... Im wishcasting this one away for you as well!!

As usual at this time of year, I normally get a ts watch or warning for my birthday present, its on friday.. please dont mess up my birthday TD 16, go play with Maria and Nate!!!!! :roll:

Correct me if im wrong, but was not ophelia a name from a Shakespear play... Midsummer nights dream or the Merchant of venice???


I feel your pain! My poor sister's birthday is on the 15th of Sept. I think Daytona has been under some kind of tropical advisory/warning/evac almost every year for the past 6 or so. She NEVER gets a party the poor girl.
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#120 Postby Canelaw99 » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:45 pm

Yes - Ophelia was Hamlet's true love in "Hamlet"
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