SouthFloridawx wrote:sma10 wrote:Seriously, though, the NoGaps is getting an awful lot of love this morning!
yes the Outlier is getting a lot of love this morning.
What's going to happen if the 12Z NoGaps shows something different?!
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sma10 wrote:SouthFloridawx wrote:sma10 wrote:Seriously, though, the NoGaps is getting an awful lot of love this morning!
yes the Outlier is getting a lot of love this morning.
What's going to happen if the 12Z NoGaps shows something different?!
caneman wrote:Don't think NOGAPS is that out to lunch. Check out the 06GFS. It shows a real slow crawl West towards end of run before being ejected out. That is all NOGAPS might be showing at end of that run and then later it could be ejected out.
sma10 wrote:curtadams wrote:One thing about these occasional west-run outliers - they all have Helene quite weak. The last time the UKM did it it had Helene never go below 1000 mb. In that NOGAPS run, Helene is about 1005 mb towards the end. So the NOGAPS is saying that if Helene is a wussy, fizzly TS, she'll make it to N of the islands (but still at sea) before the monster front bats her out of the park- which I find believable.
That is true, Curt, but I have found that the global models do not handle central pressure in tropical entities very well.
curtadams wrote:sma10 wrote:curtadams wrote:One thing about these occasional west-run outliers - they all have Helene quite weak. The last time the UKM did it it had Helene never go below 1000 mb. In that NOGAPS run, Helene is about 1005 mb towards the end. So the NOGAPS is saying that if Helene is a wussy, fizzly TS, she'll make it to N of the islands (but still at sea) before the monster front bats her out of the park- which I find believable.
That is true, Curt, but I have found that the global models do not handle central pressure in tropical entities very well.
Oh, absolutely. The point I was making was that the only way land will even see some cirrus clouds is if Helene stays weak. The globals can't tell us whether Helene will be weak or strong, but they can tell us (kind of) what the tracks will be in each case. Right now they're saying if she strengthens any she'll go twist up the seaweed in the Sargasso Sea and if she struggles and fizzles she might make it to within a few hundred miles of land.
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