Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

[Evil Jeremy]

it looks to be heading NE!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Water spout normal 50-70 mph winds or f0 on the f scale. Or about 50-150 feet across. Some can get wider or stronger.

[Buck]

Not all tornados on Bermuda are landfalling waterspouts necessarily. The island is definitely big enough to have tornados that form and stay on land.

[CrazyC83]

Very little change this evening it appears. I think it will be held.

[Sanibel]

Looks like a big wobbling turn right for Bermuda and right over it!

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 10 2006

...FLORENCE HEADED TOWARD BERMUDA... CONDITIONS SHOULD WORSEN
OVERNIGHT...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST OR ABOUT 120
MILES...190 KM...SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. THE CENTER OF FLORENCE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF BERMUDA TOMORROW MORNING.
HOWEVER... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING
BERMUDA. A WIND GUST TO 66 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN
ELEVATED WEATHER STATION AT THE COMMISSIONER'S POINT ON BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND FLORENCE COULD INTENSIFY INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS
IT PASSES NEAR BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST
OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND.

FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG
RIP CURRENTS... ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON
COASTAL CONDITIONS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...31.0 N...66.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

[Brent]

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
0300 UTC MON SEP 11 2006

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 66.1W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......225NE 175SE 90SW 225NW.
12 FT SEAS..475NE 275SE 350SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 66.1W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 66.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 32.8N 65.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...250NE 175SE 90SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 35.0N 64.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...275NE 175SE 90SW 275NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 37.5N 63.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...325NE 250SE 125SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 40.4N 60.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 125NW.
34 KT...350NE 300SE 200SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 46.0N 53.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...200NE 300SE 200SW 120NW.
34 KT...360NE 480SE 420SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 48.0N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 49.0N 28.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 66.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

[Brent]

HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006

THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PRESSURE WAS ABOUT THE SAME AS EARLIER
TODAY... 975 MB... WITH 86 KT MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. THIS FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
CORRESPONDS TO SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 75-80 KT USING
STANDARD WIND REDUCTION FACTORS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT
AT 80 KT BUT COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKNESS
OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STORM.

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE IS MORE RAGGED THAN SIX HOURS AGO AND THE
LAST AIRCRAFT FIX REPORTED AN OPEN EYEWALL. STILL...THERE IS A
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FLORENCE TO STRENGTHEN IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SSTS HINDER ANY
INTENSIFICATION. THUS... THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE OVERNIGHT BEFORE ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO BERMUDA
EARLY MONDAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN BETWEEN SHIPS... WHICH PEAKS THE SYSTEM AT
87 KT... AND THE GFDL WHICH STRENGTHENS FLORENCE TO 97 KT.
PHASE-SPACE DIAGRAMS FROM FSU SHOW EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE
72 HOUR TIMEFRAME... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE
HURRICANE WILL LIKELY BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM AT HIGH
LATITUDES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN...AS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS.

FLORENCE APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS POINT OF RECURVATURE AND IS
MOVING DUE NORTHWARD... 000/12. A GRADUAL BEND TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS THE MIDDLE-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. AS THE HURRICANE MOVES FARTHER NORTHWARD... AN
ACCELERATED MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SEEMS LIKELY AHEAD OF AN
UPPER-TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW
MUCH INTERACTION FLORENCE WILL HAVE WITH THIS TROUGH. THE UKMET IS
THE RIGHTMOST OUTLIER KEEPING THE SYSTEM MOSTLY SEPARATE FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A TRACK CLOSER TO
NEWFOUNDLAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST... BETWEEN THE UKMET AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS...
BUT STILL ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 31.0N 66.1W 80 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 32.8N 65.9W 85 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 35.0N 64.8W 90 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 37.5N 63.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 40.4N 60.9W 75 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 46.0N 53.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 15/0000Z 48.0N 43.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 16/0000Z 49.0N 28.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

[Recurve]

Yes, the radar seems to show now that if the island doesn't get the center of the eye, it could easily be under the east side eyewall.

[WindRunner]

Hmmm . . . an hour after scheduled takeoff, and still nothing. Makes me wonder . . .

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 091430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 09 SEP 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
         VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z SEP 2006
         TSPOD NUMBER.....06-102

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE
       FLIGHT ONE                   FLIGHT TWO
       A. 10/1800,11/0000Z          A. 11/0600,1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0406A FLORENCE      B. AFXXX 0506A FLORENCE
       C. 10/1445Z                  C. 11/0210Z
       D. 28.6N 65.9W               D. 30.6N 65.87W
       E. 10/1700Z TO 11/0000Z      E. 11/0530Z TO 11/1200Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT          F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
       G. TEAL 72                   G. TEAL 73

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
                         JWP


And no note about a cancellation in the 8pm update to tomorrow's outlook, so they should be up.

[Jim Cantore]

about 90-150 miles off the Jersey coast is staring down 30 foot seas tommorow.

[CrazyC83]

11/0600 = 2 am. Still 2 1/2 hours away.

[Brent]

11/0600 = 2 am. Still 2 1/2 hours away.

That's the arrival time. 210z was takeoff time which was 10:10pm EDT.

[craptacular]

They're back. I'm not available to keep posting them, but I figured I'd let you know they're ready to go.

000 SXXX50 KNHC 110329
AF303 0506A FLORENCE HDOB 01 KNHC
0311 1742N 06448W 00001 5011 360 000 260 228 000 00000 0000000000
0311. 1742N 06448W 00001 5011 360 000 258 234 000 00000 0000000000
0312 1742N 06448W 00000 5010 360 000 256 238 000 00000 0000000000
0312. 1742N 06448W 00001 5011 360 000 254 238 000 00000 0000000000
0313 1742N 06448W 00002 5012 360 000 250 236 000 00000 0000000000
0313. 1742N 06448W 00003 5013 360 000 248 240 000 00000 0000000000
0314 1742N 06448W 00005 5015 360 000 246 238 000 00000 0000000000
0314. 1742N 06448W 00006 5016 360 000 248 240 000 00000 0000000000
0315 1742N 06449W 00008 5018 360 000 250 238 000 00000 0000000000
0315. 1742N 06449W 00011 5021 360 000 246 240 000 00000 0000000000
0316 1742N 06449W 00012 5022 360 000 246 240 000 00000 0000000000
0316. 1742N 06449W 00013 5023 360 000 252 234 000 00000 0000000000
0317 1742N 06449W 00013 5023 360 000 256 232 000 00000 0000000000
0317. 1742N 06449W 00013 5023 360 000 256 232 000 00000 0000000000
0318 1742N 06449W 00014 5024 360 000 256 230 000 00000 0000000000
0318. 1742N 06449W 00015 5025 342 001 250 238 003 00000 0000000000
0319 1742N 06448W 00055 5017 065 002 260 244 006 00048 0000000000
0319. 1742N 06447W 00256 0011 116 005 256 238 005 00277 0000000000
0320 1743N 06445W 00531 0008 133 005 236 220 007 00559 0000000000
0320. 1744N 06444W 00794 5023 158 004 222 186 005 00792 0000000000

[CrazyC83]

I can do it for a while.

[craptacular]

First set posted ... I can't continue with it tonight, unfortunately.

[Epsilon_Fan]

By the looks of it, Florence doesn't look to be getting any stronger... if anything she looks to be getting sheared by the trough. The center seems to be getting disorganized

[TheEuropean]

427
SXXX50 KNHC 110424
AF303 0506A FLORENCE HDOB 07 KNHC
0411 2144N 06511W 06400 0371 287 008 111 309 008 06858 0000000000
0411. 2146N 06511W 06401 0372 290 008 111 303 009 06861 0000000000
0412 2149N 06511W 06401 0371 289 008 111 261 009 06859 0000000000
0412. 2152N 06512W 06401 0371 289 008 113 245 008 06860 0000000000
0413 2154N 06512W 06400 0370 295 007 111 243 008 06857 0000000000
0413. 2157N 06512W 06401 0369 290 007 113 213 007 06857 0000000000
0414 2200N 06513W 06402 0370 298 008 115 221 008 06859 0000000000
0414. 2203N 06513W 06399 0369 285 007 115 229 007 06856 0000000000
0415 2205N 06513W 06402 0370 285 007 115 217 008 06858 0000000000
0415. 2208N 06513W 06401 0370 282 007 115 203 008 06858 0000000000
0416 2211N 06514W 06401 0369 282 008 115 209 008 06857 0000000000
0416. 2213N 06514W 06401 0370 285 008 115 199 008 06858 0000000000
0417 2216N 06514W 06400 0369 291 008 115 197 008 06857 0000000000
0417. 2219N 06515W 06402 0370 297 008 115 203 008 06859 0000000000
0418 2222N 06515W 06400 0369 296 008 115 225 008 06856 0000000000
0418. 2224N 06515W 06401 0370 286 008 117 221 008 06857 0000000000
0419 2227N 06516W 06401 0369 279 009 121 209 009 06857 0000000000
0419. 2230N 06516W 06402 0369 286 008 119 205 008 06858 0000000000
0420 2233N 06516W 06398 0369 274 008 119 215 008 06854 0000000000
0420. 2235N 06517W 06403 0368 293 008 117 225 008 06858 0000000000


Should I take over?

[CrazyC83]

Go ahead, I lost track.

[TheEuropean]

760
SXXX50 KNHC 110444
AF303 0506A FLORENCE HDOB 09 KNHC
0431 2332N 06523W 06404 0366 283 009 115 185 009 06857 0000000000
0431. 2335N 06524W 06399 0365 281 009 113 193 009 06851 0000000000
0432 2338N 06524W 06402 0365 287 009 113 189 010 06853 0000000000
0432. 2340N 06524W 06401 0366 298 010 107 203 010 06853 0000000000
0433 2343N 06525W 06398 0365 300 009 105 203 009 06850 0000000000
0433. 2346N 06525W 06401 0365 288 008 109 199 009 06851 0000000000
0434 2348N 06525W 06402 0365 286 009 111 197 010 06853 0000000000
0434. 2351N 06526W 06400 0364 282 010 115 189 010 06851 0000000000
0435 2354N 06526W 06405 0365 281 010 113 183 010 06856 0000000000
0435. 2357N 06526W 06401 0366 285 009 111 195 010 06854 0000000000
0436 2359N 06527W 06400 0366 286 009 111 191 009 06853 0000000000
0436. 2402N 06527W 06401 0366 300 010 115 191 010 06853 0000000000
0437 2405N 06527W 06401 0365 312 009 115 183 009 06852 0000000000
0437. 2407N 06527W 06403 0366 316 009 115 185 010 06855 0000000000
0438 2410N 06528W 06400 0367 313 009 115 183 009 06853 0000000000
0438. 2413N 06528W 06399 0366 311 010 115 183 010 06851 0000000000
0439 2416N 06528W 06401 0366 314 010 115 183 010 06854 0000000000
0439. 2418N 06529W 06401 0366 315 011 115 183 011 06853 0000000000
0440 2421N 06529W 06401 0366 312 010 115 195 010 06852 0000000000
0440. 2424N 06529W 06400 0365 311 010 115 183 011 06851 0000000000

Heading north