Tropical Storm Chris

[Thunder44]

That is where the weak, but CLOSED surface low is at 19:15z based on being able to see it an hour or so ago (I'm extrapolating a bit), before it went under the cirrus, like AFM pointed out.

Looking at the obs I'm finding lowest pressures south of there and the center appears to be inland somewhere between Ciego de Avila and Holguin in Cuba as of the 3pm.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/caribm.html

[Air Force Met]

AFM correct me if i'm wrong, but the ull that put a beating on Chris the past few days appear to be moving north.

Yeah it's lifing out....but chris is still in a col...not the best place to be. The the upper level divergence was better..he'd be beating the band right now. Some aren't excited about the convection...and granted you can discount the convection over Cuba...but the stuff over water shows the atmosphere is a lot more moist than it was and is more unstable.

[x-y-no]

The ULL to the east appears to have given up the chase but the one to the west continues to back off, so the chance of some regeneration once the wave clears Cuba remains.

[ronjon]

I wouldn't take the convection too seriously, since much of it is just diurnal thunderstorms being triggered over Cuba.

Yeah... this thing is going to die in Cuba IMO.

It might die completely of course over the next 6-12 hrs. But, its already 0.5 deg north of the old NHC estimated position from this morning and the high res NASA VIS SAT showed the remnant circulation moving W-NW prior to being obscured by the cirrus. Extrpolated path from todays movement seems to keep it bumping very near the coast.

[x-y-no]

AFM correct me if i'm wrong, but the ull that put a beating on Chris the past few days appear to be moving north.

Yeah it's lifing out....but chris is still in a col...not the best place to be. The the upper level divergence was better..he'd be beating the band right now. Some aren't excited about the convection...and granted you can discount the convection over Cuba...but the stuff over water shows the atmosphere is a lot more moist than it was and is more unstable.

Plenty of nice warm water in the straits too.

[sevenleft]

AFM correct me if i'm wrong, but the ull that put a beating on Chris the past few days appear to be moving north.

Yeah it's lifing out....but chris is still in a col...not the best place to be. The the upper level divergence was better..he'd be beating the band right now. Some aren't excited about the convection...and granted you can discount the convection over Cuba...but the stuff over water shows the atmosphere is a lot more moist than it was and is more unstable.

I agree that the convection on the north side is something, but the south side can't be taken too seriously due to Cuba.

[Air Force Met]

Good image...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... uality=100

[Bailey1777]

That was a good image. Looks like he's still trying.

[Yankeegirl]

It is still making a yucky day in Cuba.... Even if he doesnt form into anything...

[Air Force Met]

Here are some loops...warning...high bandwidth required....

Vis with spectral overlay

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal


Vis loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... tte=ir.pal

[AJC3]

Anyone post a link to the Camaguey radar yet?

If not, here it is...

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

[Stormavoider]

Is the center right on the barrier islands?

[Thunder44]

Anyone post a link to the Camaguey radar yet?

If not, here it is...

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

I believe it was posted earlier. I see the most rotation with the storms along 78W inland of Cuba.

[ronjon]

Is the center right on the barrier islands?

I think it is based on the previous motion on the VIS SAT.

[miamicanes177]

is this still moving west about 13mph or has it shifted wnw anyway? It should not take too long to travel over cuba depending on the speed and motion.

[cycloneye]

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS IS
LOCATED NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA...OR ABOUT 275 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF CUBA NORTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS
AFTERNOON...IN PART DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE DAY OVER CUBA...BUT
OVERALL THIS SYSTEM SHOWS NO SIGNS OF REGENERATION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.


5:30 PM TWO

[hriverajr]

Here are some loops...warning...high bandwidth required....

Vis with spectral overlay

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal


Vis loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... tte=ir.pal

how do you get these satellite loops from ghcc that are not part of their standard fare. I am curious.

Hector

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The system looks to still have a nice rotation today around 79.5 west moving along the coast of Cuba. Also convection has fired so it still has some chance.

[george_r_1961]

Id be shocked at this point to see it make a comeback as its been disrupted too badly. Lets hope it doesnt.

[Stormavoider]

Here it comes

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=byx&loop=yes