Tropical Storm Chris

cheezyWXguy · #5121 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:25 pm

its your ranking, itused to be related to how many posts you have, but since they got rid of the post count, im not sure how they rank it

rnbaida · #5122 Postby **rnbaida** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:25 pm

how do i contact the admin?

miamicanes177 · #5123 Postby **miamicanes177** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:26 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:it is a wave...its not closed...if it were, itd still be a TD.

NHC cancelled the recon so we never got 100% proof that it lost its closed circulation. It was assumed.

miamicanes177 · #5124 Postby **miamicanes177** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:27 pm

check out the deep convection now http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES1 ... RD0BNc.jpg

#5125 Postby **tailgater** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:28 pm

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT CHRIS HAS
WEAKENED AND IS BECOMING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. AT 500 AM
AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST OR ABOUT 150
MILES...240 KM...EAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.
The NHC never said it was a open wave.

Derek Ortt · #5126 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:30 pm

Chris was not declared to be a wave, it was declared to be a remnant low

cheezyWXguy · #5127 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:31 pm

good point...its certainly too weak to be a depression then...that must make it a little easier for the storm to get back to life...although still a long shot

Normandy · #5128 Postby **Normandy** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:32 pm

Youve got to be kidding.

#5129 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:33 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:it is a wave...its not closed...if it were, itd still be a TD. However I still do believe it can come back to life. I still think Hurricane Chris sounds better than Tropical Storm Chris

Actually...no...

A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW...according to the discussion...and from the advisory this morning:

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT CHRIS IS BECOMING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

So...it was still a low when they downgraded it. It just didn't have any organized tstms and that is wht they did it (and didn't expect any because the LLC was so weak).

But...and I can't speak for now because I can't see it due to all the cirrus blocking the lower level clouds...but as of 2 hours ago it still had a closed circulation...at least in the lower cloud fields.

How do I KNOW this? I used Chris as a perfect opportunity to train my troops on some satellite interpretation and pulled up a high res image loop...blasted it onto the dry erase board ..which is 4' tall and 8' wide...with our projector...turned the lights off and we analyzed the low level cloud motions and there were still some cloud elements moving eastward in the field.

I traced the individual clouds of the high res loop on the dry erase board (of course each cloud was blown up so large it was the size of a pencil eraser)...and the south side clouds were still moving east...albeit very slowly.

Why? Because the LLC is bumping up against Cuba and it is tightening the circulation.

miamicanes177 · #5130 Postby **miamicanes177** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:36 pm

shear is down to 5-10kts
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

KatDaddy · #5131 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:37 pm

Execellent post AFM. You really have to anaylize ever detail to really see what is going on with weak tropical systems. Its easy to think you see something that does not really exist.

sevenleft · #5132 Postby **sevenleft** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:42 pm

That is where the weak, but CLOSED surface low is at 19:15z based on being able to see it an hour or so ago (I'm extrapolating a bit), before it went under the cirrus, like AFM pointed out.

perk · #5133 Postby **perk** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:44 pm

AFM correct me if i'm wrong, but the ull that put a beating on Chris the past few days appear to be moving north.

Sanibel · #5134 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:45 pm

The flare-up is a combination of diurnal enhancement along the wave along with Chris finding a favorable pocket.

He's going to go inland tonight.

ronjon · #5135 Postby **ronjon** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:45 pm

AFM, agreed. Been tracking the LLC from the high res NASA 8km VIS SAT today. Its obscured by Cirrus now but the outer rotation is still apparent. If the convection continues to fire and the circulation stays intact, may need another RECON soon.

sevenleft · #5136 Postby **sevenleft** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:47 pm

I wouldn't take the convection too seriously, since much of it is just diurnal thunderstorms being triggered over Cuba.

#5137 Postby **tailgater** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:48 pm

ronjon wrote:AFM, agreed. Been tracking the LLC from the high res NASA 8km VIS SAT today. Its obscured by Cirrus now but the outer rotation is still apparent. If the convection continues to fire and the circulation stays intact, may need another RECON soon.

Should be over land for the next 12hrs at least.

Website · #5138 Postby **Brent** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:50 pm

sevenleft wrote:I wouldn't take the convection too seriously, since much of it is just diurnal thunderstorms being triggered over Cuba.

Yeah... this thing is going to die in Cuba IMO.

stormtruth · #5139 Postby **stormtruth** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:54 pm

It looks like Chris is going to live long enough to have a chance at a GOM resurrection. If it still has an LLC it should still be TD Chris even right now.

ronjon · #5140 Postby **ronjon** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:55 pm

sevenleft wrote:I wouldn't take the convection too seriously, since much of it is just diurnal thunderstorms being triggered over Cuba.

Not just diurnal TS - the speed convergence of the lower level wind field has enhanced TS near the center today.

Tropical Storm Chris

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