Tropical Storm Cosme

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 161251
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1251 UTC MON JUL 16 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME (EP062007) 20070716 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070716 1200 070717 0000 070717 1200 070718 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.1N 130.1W 15.2N 131.9W 15.8N 134.0W 16.4N 136.6W
BAMD 14.1N 130.1W 15.1N 132.0W 15.7N 134.2W 16.1N 136.6W
BAMM 14.1N 130.1W 15.0N 131.8W 15.6N 133.9W 16.1N 136.3W
LBAR 14.1N 130.1W 14.9N 131.8W 15.5N 134.0W 15.9N 136.7W
SHIP 55KTS 61KTS 61KTS 58KTS
DSHP 55KTS 61KTS 61KTS 58KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070718 1200 070719 1200 070720 1200 070721 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.8N 139.3W 17.9N 144.9W 18.8N 150.8W 18.8N 157.4W
BAMD 16.6N 139.2W 17.8N 144.5W 19.2N 149.6W 20.0N 154.5W
BAMM 16.4N 139.0W 17.3N 144.8W 18.1N 150.7W 18.3N 156.9W
LBAR 16.2N 139.5W 17.0N 145.3W 18.2N 150.5W 17.5N 155.3W
SHIP 54KTS 40KTS 35KTS 30KTS
DSHP 54KTS 40KTS 35KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.1N LONCUR = 130.1W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 128.4W DIRM12 = 309DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 127.2W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 35NM RD34NW = 50NM

$$
NNNN


55 kts in this 12:00z run.Ship does not go to hurricane strengh in this run.

[Chacor]

ACPN50 PHFO 161345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST MON JUL 16 2007

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME IS FORECAST TO BE JUST EAST OF CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER/S AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY OF 140W LONGITUDE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT IS SLATED TO CROSS 140W LONGITUDE EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

$$

LAU

[Chacor]

WTPZ41 KNHC 161455
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007
800 AM PDT MON JUL 16 2007

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF COSME HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST
SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS AN EMBEDDED CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION
AND CLOUD TOPS AROUND -80 DEGREES CELSIUS. A 1013 UTC AMSR-E
MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE...AS DID EARLIER MICROWAVE
PASSES. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 55
KT...WHICH IS ALSO THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9. COSME IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL STRONGER RIDGING TO THE NORTH.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND ANTICIPATES THE
RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...STEERING COSME ON A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS
CLOSELY WITH THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT CHALLENGING. IN THE NEAR TERM...
COSME SHOULD REMAIN IN A FAIRLY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 25-26C. IF COSME REACHES HURRICANE
STRENGTH...IT WILL MOST LIKELY DO SO IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
THEREAFTER...COOLER WATERS AND POSSIBLY A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL...HOWEVER...BOTH THE
GFDL AND HWRF SUGGEST THAT COSME COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH LONGER THAN INDICATED BELOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 14.3N 130.5W 55 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 14.7N 131.9W 65 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 15.1N 133.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 15.4N 135.7W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 15.7N 137.9W 50 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 143.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 17.5N 148.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 18.0N 153.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[HURAKAN]

I C U!!!

[HURAKAN]

Very close to becoming a hurricane.

[CrazyC83]

Showing an obscured eye on infrared but not on visible...I'd say 60 knots now. Just under hurricane intensity.

[HURAKAN]

A HURRICANE OR VERY CLOSE!!!

[HURAKAN]

LOOKING GREAT.

[Andrew92]

He needs to be upgraded at 5, in my opinion. That eye is holding steady rather nicely.

-Andrew92

[HURAKAN]

UNOFFICAL:
HURRICANE COSME

[AnnularCane]

And to think I originally thought he would just be a 40 mph TS at best.

[cycloneye]

16/1800 UTC 14.3N 130.9W T4.0/4.0 COSME -- East Pacific Ocean


Hurricane Cosme anyone?

[HURAKAN]

And to think I originally thought he would just be a 40 mph TS at best.

Sometimes is better to react than to think!!!

[HURAKAN]

ATLANTIC: "I'LL GET YOU!!!"

[WmE]

NRL has it as a 65kts hurricane. It will probably be the first hurricane of 2007.

[HURAKAN]

This is at least 65 knots, maybe more.

[cycloneye]

481
WHXX01 KMIA 161829
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1829 UTC MON JUL 16 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME (EP062007) 20070716 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070716 1800 070717 0600 070717 1800 070718 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.3N 130.9W 15.2N 132.7W 15.9N 134.9W 16.6N 137.4W
BAMD 14.3N 130.9W 14.9N 133.1W 15.1N 135.6W 15.2N 138.3W
BAMM 14.3N 130.9W 15.2N 132.6W 15.9N 134.7W 16.4N 137.3W
LBAR 14.3N 130.9W 15.1N 132.6W 15.6N 134.9W 16.2N 137.5W
SHIP 65KTS 68KTS 65KTS 59KTS
DSHP 65KTS 68KTS 65KTS 59KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070718 1800 070719 1800 070720 1800 070721 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.2N 140.1W 18.7N 145.8W 19.6N 151.5W 19.8N 157.5W
BAMD 15.2N 141.1W 15.8N 146.5W 16.6N 151.4W 16.5N 155.6W
BAMM 16.9N 140.2W 18.0N 146.1W 18.7N 152.2W 18.5N 158.2W
LBAR 16.5N 140.4W 17.9N 146.0W 19.2N 151.3W 16.6N 156.9W
SHIP 52KTS 42KTS 35KTS 29KTS
DSHP 52KTS 42KTS 35KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 130.9W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 13.6N LONM12 = 129.1W DIRM12 = 303DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 127.7W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 80NM

$$
NNNN


The models confirm it's a cane.But let's wait for the official word to then make a new Hurricane Cosme thread.

[Coredesat]

That is some shallow convection:



This thing became a hurricane at the last possible moment.

[CrazyC83]

He's waking up, so I'd say we have Hurricane Cosme at 2 pm PDT.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

It's official in the ATCF database:
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 007.invest
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep062007.dat

Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF):
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/

That makes it official.