STORM2K

I notice that the late 1970s from 1976 to 1979 was cooler than usual. Any reasons for that? I know for Southeast Texas, it was coolest years ever recorded.

"Through the 1960s and into the 1970s, the average global temperature remained relatively cool. Western Europe in particular suffered some of the coldest winters on record. (Studies in later decades found that a quasi-regular long-term weather cycle in the North Atlantic Ocean had moved into a phase in the 1960s that encouraged Arctic winds to move southward there.)(16) People will always give special attention to the weather that they see when they walk out their doors, and what they saw made them doubt that global warming was at hand. Experts who had come to suspect greenhouse warming now began to have doubts. Callendar found the turn worrisome, and contacted climate experts to discuss it.(17) Landsberg returned to his earlier view that the climate was probably showing only transient fluctuations, not a rising trend. While pollution and CO2 might be altering the climate in limited regions, he wrote, "on the global scale natural forces still prevail." He added, however, that "this should not lead to complacency" about the risk of global changes in the distant future."

"An alternative explanation was found in the "Milankovitch" cycles, tens of thousands of years long, that astronomers calculated for minor variations in the Earth's orbit. These variations brought cyclical changes in the amount of sunlight reaching a given latitude on Earth. In 1966, a leading climate expert analyzed the cycles and predicted that we were starting on the descent into a new ice age.(25) In the early 1970s, a variety of measurements pinned down the nature and timing of the cycles as actually reflected in past climate shifts. Projecting the cycles forward strengthened the prediction. A gradual cooling seemed to be astronomically scheduled over the next few thousand years. Later and better calculations would make that tens of thousands of years, but at the time a few people speculated that we might even see substantial natural cooling within centuries.(26) Unless, that is, something intervened."

From:

http://www.aip.org/history/climate/20ctrend.htm

Other info:

http://www.aip.org/history/climate/xmillenia.htm

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/table ... s+dSST.txt

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/ewx/aus/attmontemp.pdf

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data/

http://www.marshall.org/pdf/materials/170.pdf

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/paper ... ft0601.pdf

Does anyone know of a source of DAILY IKE or ACE VALUES data for tropical storm activity, for as many years as possible I could down load and plot as I have tornado production.

http://research.aerology.com/severe-wea ... roduction/

With an eye toward whether daily Lunar declination changes have any correlation to the past patterns, of storm intensity.

Individual storms like Camile, Katrina, and Rita seem to repeat to similar conditions and I would like to plot the relationships in the separate basins and global total for at least several (preferably as many as data is available) years of daily data of IKE or ACE strength numbers compiled by a Known reliable source to base my work from.

I think there will appear in the plottings some pattern, whether consistent or not I would like to find out, in case there is enough strength of correlation to base some strength consideration forecasts on in the future.

If any one could drop a link to the tabulated data I would much appreciate it. Google searches don’t do the job it seems, too far off the beaten social media pathways.

Thanks Richard Holle

Another thing that may have contributed was the cool AMO from 1970-1994. The Atlantic Basin cooled down considerably in the 1970s after the 1926-1969 warm AMO cycle. That's why some are predicting another big cool down in the coming decades as the current warm AMO shifts cold again.

wxman57 wrote:Another thing that may have contributed was the cool AMO from 1970-1994. The Atlantic Basin cooled down considerably in the 1970s after the 1926-1969 warm AMO cycle. That's why some are predicting another big cool down in the coming decades as the current warm AMO shifts cold again.

Interesting that this past winter was one of the coolest on record.

Ptarmigan wrote:

wxman57 wrote:Another thing that may have contributed was the cool AMO from 1970-1994. The Atlantic Basin cooled down considerably in the 1970s after the 1926-1969 warm AMO cycle. That's why some are predicting another big cool down in the coming decades as the current warm AMO shifts cold again.

Interesting that this past winter was one of the coolest on record.

Globally?

wxman57 wrote:
Globally?

Oh no. I am talking about Texas and a good portion of America for the winter of 2009-2010. Stupid me! D'OH! (Homer's voice)