STORM2K

I feel we have had below average TS season over here. Do we think it will be a late season with quite a few coming in Oct and Nov?

October and November account for 6.3 named and 4.6 typhoons on average respectively so it should be at least semi-active. Also we are in the peak season for Supers. Usually the big Supers are most common in September and October, but there have been some real monsters as late as December as the US Navy found out in 1944.

Steve

Thanks, but are you referring to WPAC region? I am moving back to HK and trying to understand from you experts whether I am in for a active Oct and Nov.

Yes, I am referring to WPAC (no body else gets so many storms in October and November in the Northern Hemisphere). For Hong Kong specifically. October remains a risk month but the risk drops off in November as the NE Monsoon begins to establish itself over the northern portions of the South China Sea. That said, Hong Kong has been hit as late as December 1st (in 1974). They have already had some decent blows there so with luck maybe you will escape.

Steve

Agree with above. More in-depth info on Hong Kong cyclone climatology from the Navy's Typhoon Haven review at http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~cannon/thh-nc/hongkong/text/sect6.htm.

supercane