STORM2K

On the local Houston tv stations, they spoke in the spring about expecting "pop up" hurricanes this year. They said that we might not get as much warning as we usually have in the past. Does that have any merit and, if so, does it still hold true?

never heard of a "pop up" hurricane. They may be referring to waves that develop quickly in the Bay of Campeche or the western Gulf of Mexico. That said, these waves still usually take days to actually become a hurricane. They can't develop as quickly as "pop up" thunderstorms (~15-30 minutes). I think it may be more of a media term, but still could hold some water. This is more likely in the Gulf and near the East Coast (gulf stream) where the very warm water temps reside. (see Humberto 2007)

Yes, Humberto was referred to as an example.

We hear from our clients (and use) the term "pop-up hurricane" frequently. The term refers to hurricanes that develop closer to land, like in the Gulf of Mexico as opposed to hurricanes that develop near Africa and are tracked for a week or more before reaching the Gulf.

Our thinking this year is that a combination of an El Nino with cooler than normal water across the Caribbean Sea and the Tropical Atlantic may make conditions south of 20N more hostile toward development in 2009. So, a disturbance may track across the Caribbean without developing, only to develop rapidly in the Gulf - a "pop-up hurricane".

Am I correct in assuming that these late developers can be as deadly? And assume that the storm surge, though, would be mild compared to Ike?

mpic wrote:Am I correct in assuming that these late developers can be as deadly? And assume that the storm surge, though, would be mild compared to Ike?

Pop-up hurricanes are smaller, like Humberto, which means lower storm surges. Of course the wind would be stronger, which would be deadly right there.

Yes Humberto was definitely a pop up, surprise hurricane. What a wild night. But they were referring to canes that develope closer to home rather than out in the Atlantic. Depending on how fast they bottom out and intensify, they can be just as dangerous as a long tracker if not more so. Back to Humberto as example. Say he developed around Brownsville. And he was supposed to be a cat 1 hittng our coast in 2 days. Well no one would worry. But as he approached he bottomed out just off shore to a cat 3. There would be no time. Everyone would have to ride it out. Even if he was a cat 3 when he was near Brownsville 2 days is too late to do anything. I'm sure some home grown storms would give u more warning but you get my drift. And I don't know about storm surges in this case. But yes, the winds would be dangerous in their own right. I don't think a lot of people realise just what those winds can do. Rita chewed up most of deep east Texas for over a hundred miles inland. It was awful. So be careful and as prepared as you can be. And never discount the wind.

SETXWXLADY wrote:Back to Humberto as example. Say he developed around Brownsville. And he was supposed to be a cat 1 hittng our coast in 2 days. Well no one would worry.

I leave for all of them! Mobile home and 2 1/2 trees...Ike took 1/2

Thanks for all the replies. Will stay tuned here for the season.

mpic wrote:

SETXWXLADY wrote:Back to Humberto as example. Say he developed around Brownsville. And he was supposed to be a cat 1 hittng our coast in 2 days. Well no one would worry.

I leave for all of them! Mobile home and 2 1/2 trees...Ike took 1/2

Thanks for all the replies. Will stay tuned here for the season.

I leave for all of them too for the same reason. Rita toppled a 90 foot oak tree end to end through our house. Looked like a giant hot dog. If you can picture that. Lol. It just blew the walls out. Broke the steel frame under the house. When they tried to remove the tree with a crane it sank the stablizer feet three feet in the ground and almost toppled the crane. It broke the huge chain. And that was with the rootball cut off. That tree was insanely big. It was beautiful too. The other oak that fell away from the other end of the house was even bigger. As far as I know its still there. I know we lost our home but I mourned for those trees too. Eventually they got the tree out and at some point the Army Core of Engineers removed everything. I haven't been back since '06. But I hear it's reverting back to forest. I'm glad. Maybe mother nature will get a chance to heal herself. All we do is pay the taxes every year.
We rode out Humberto in our new mobile home. That was scary. We were waiting for one of those giant pines to come through the house. Luckily it didn't. But Ike took care of one of them. It managed to miss everyones house. And in March this year we had the other one removed. Extreme Hurricane Prep. Lol. Anyway I'm glad to hear people talking about the wind danger. It is often over looked.

mpic wrote:Am I correct in assuming that these late developers can be as deadly? And assume that the storm surge, though, would be mild compared to Ike?

Storm surge is mostly a function of wind field size (and coastal bathymetry) rather than SS intensity. Peak hurricane size is not typically reached a few days after development, so systems developing closer to the coast would tend to be smaller and have less of a surge.