S. FL hurricane strength easier to predict with new radar

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
zlaxier
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 101
Joined: Sun Sep 25, 2005 1:44 pm

S. FL hurricane strength easier to predict with new radar

#1 Postby zlaxier » Fri Jul 06, 2007 4:30 am

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... -headlines

MIAMI It stands like a sentry, on the lookout for tempests round-the-clock. Yet, until this year, South Florida's primary weather Doppler radar had been unable to detect the most dreaded of tropical storms, those that explode in strength just before reaching land.

Now, the bulbous installation in remote southwestern Miami-Dade County has been enhanced with a new program to better predict a storm's intensity at the point of impact. That should spur better hurricane preparations and evacuations, officials said.

We're hoping that when there's this trend of rapid intensification, this program will essentially ring a bell for us," said Colin McAdie, a research meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County.

Called VORTRAC, for Vortex Objective Radar Tracking and Circulation, the program, in essence, is a mathematical formula. When used to sift and rearrange data furnished by the radar, it gives forecasters a close reading of the atmospheric pressure at a storm's heart.

With that measurement supplied every six minutes — as opposed to several hours prior to the program — forecasters can quickly spot any strengthening or weakening. Developed by two government agencies, the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., and the Naval Research Laboratory in Washington, D.C., the program is being field-tested for the first time this year.
0 likes   

Chris_in_Tampa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4963
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:06 pm
Location: Tampa, Florida, USA
Contact:

#2 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Jul 06, 2007 4:45 am

I hope this program expands soon. This sounds incredibly beneficial for storms like Charley that was mentioned. I would not think it would cost too much to install the program and to have the hardware required to run it.
0 likes   

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4928
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: S. FL hurricane strength easier to predict with new radar

#3 Postby Nimbus » Fri Jul 06, 2007 5:44 am

Looks more like a good post analysis (Spelling?) tool.

A rapidly intensifying storm would signal with a change in core dynamics true. You would only get a few hours warning in the case of a storm like Charley. That is not enough time for the media to react. Go back and look at the storm2k Charley threads if they are still archived. Scary!
0 likes   

cpdaman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3131
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:44 am
Location: SPB county (gulf stream)

Re: S. FL hurricane strength easier to predict with new radar

#4 Postby cpdaman » Sat Jul 07, 2007 9:28 am

what good would this have done with charley

they notice a storm what (3 hours) from the coast way to late to have a safe massive evacuation IMO well i guess it would help a small number evacuate, but you wouldn't want to cause a major traffic back in front of a rapidly intensifying storm, these people always make unsupported claims regarding how the new improved radar will save us.

now on the plus side, anyone looking at the visible or infared knew charley had strengthened significantly but could not tell if it was 120 or 140 mph a big difference.

but i would doubt

1. a radar could do that as accurately as a reconaissance plane or reliably

2. and that even if it could, it would make much of a difference (not like it would be the best idea for people to board up there house with a hurricane so close or to all run to shelters, but more so to know the storm about to hit them will give them more of a beating then they thought.

i am open to other perspectives of course, if they make sense to me

anyone know how many miles this radar would be able to be useful over
0 likes   

User avatar
sunnyday
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1580
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 8:16 pm

Re: S. FL hurricane strength easier to predict with new radar

#5 Postby sunnyday » Sat Jul 07, 2007 8:39 pm

Someone mentioned the archives on Charley. Can you tell me how to access them?
Thanks. 8-)
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: S. FL hurricane strength easier to predict with new radar

#6 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 08, 2007 6:36 am

Coastal radar would only come into play 3-6 hours prior to landfall when TS-force winds are already lashing the coast. While the radar would be a good tool for post-storm analysis, it would be useless for pre-storm preparations.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Cpv17, duilaslol, Google Adsense [Bot] and 58 guests