TC 03B and 04B thread

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Chacor
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#21 Postby Chacor » Thu Jun 21, 2007 7:07 am

BOB 03/2007/02 Dated : 21st June, 2007

Subject: Depression over Bay of Bengal

Morning’s depression over westcentral Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 21st June, 2007 over westcentral Bay of Bengal near Lat.16.00N and Long 84.50E, about 300 kms east-southeast of Kakinada. The System is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction and likely to cross north Andhra Pradesh coast between Narsapur and Visakhapatnam by tomorrow, the 22nd morning.

Under its influence, widespread rains with scattered heavy to very heavy falls are likely over Andhra Pradesh, north coastal Tamilnadu & Puducherry during next 36 hrs. Isolated extremely heavy falls (> 25 cm) are also likely over central districts of coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during the same period.

Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph are likely along and off Andhra Pradesh and north Tamilnadu & Puducherry coasts during the next 24 hours.

Sea condition will be very rough. Fishermen of Andhra Pradesh and north Tamilnadu/Puducherry coasts are advised not to venture into the sea.

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Getting rather close to land now.
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#22 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 21, 2007 7:48 am

21/0830 UTC 15.8N 84.7E T2.0/2.0 95B -- Bay of Bengal
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#23 Postby Chacor » Thu Jun 21, 2007 8:02 am

NRL is now carrying 03B.NONAME.
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Re:

#24 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 21, 2007 8:16 am

Chacor wrote:NRL is now carrying 03B.NONAME.


It will be a short nonamed storm!!!
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#25 Postby Chacor » Thu Jun 21, 2007 8:24 am

Image
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#26 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 21, 2007 9:46 am

03BNONAME.35kts-990mb-161N-838E

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Lots of rain for the Indian coast.
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#27 Postby Chacor » Thu Jun 21, 2007 9:49 am

REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 83.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA HAS TRAKCED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK AND MICROWAVE POSITION
ESTIMATES. SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM THE EAST COAST OF INDIA,
INDICATING PRESSURES OF AROUND 992 MB AHEAD OF THE STORM TRACK
AND INCREASING SURFACE WINDS, SUGGEST THAT CORE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE REACHED THE WARNING THRESHOLD OF 35 KTS.
ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE, A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN SHEAR VALUES HAS ALLOWED DEEP CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE STORM IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
OVER NORTHERN INDIA. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS RIDGING REMAINS STEADY TO THE NORTH. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL
BETWEEN TAU 06 AND TAU 12 DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND A LOCAL INCREASE IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OFF THE EAST CENTRAL
COAST OF INDIA. TC 03B IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 AS IT
PASSES OVER LAND. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 210721Z JUN 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.
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#28 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 21, 2007 9:57 am

Image

Image

Just a few more hours to live!
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#29 Postby Chacor » Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:01 am

BOB 03/2007/03 Dated : 21st June, 2007


Subject: Deep Depression over Bay of Bengal

The depression over westcentral Bay of Bengal moved westwards, intensified into a deep depression and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 21st June 2007 near Lat.16.00N and Long 84.00E, about 220 kms east-southeast of Kakinada. The System is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross north Andhra Pradesh coast between Narsapur and Visakhapatnam close to Kakinada by tomorrow, the 22nd morning.

Under its influence, widespread rains with scattered heavy to very heavy falls are likely over Andhra Pradesh, north coastal Tamilnadu & Puducherry during next 36 hrs. Isolated extremely heavy falls (> 25 cm) are also likely over central districts of coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during the same period.

Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph are likely along and off Andhra Pradesh and north Tamilnadu & Puducherry coasts during the next 24 hours.

Sea condition will be very rough to high. Fishermen of Andhra Pradesh and north Tamilnadu/Puducherry coasts are advised not to venture into the sea.
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Re: NIndian: Active: Deep Depression (JTWC: Tropical Cyclone 03B

#30 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Jun 21, 2007 12:42 pm

There is some mighty deep convection with this one.

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#31 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 21, 2007 2:34 pm

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Almost at the coast.
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#32 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 21, 2007 4:34 pm

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IF IT HAD MORE TIME?!?!?!?!
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#33 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Jun 21, 2007 5:17 pm

Sheared, large systems like these always take a very long time to develop. If anything, I would have prefered this to be about 6-12 hr slower. Big convective blobs like the one we're seeing now usually die out at dawn. However, given that it is already impacting India, I fear we may hear some terrible stories of flooding in that area in the days to come...
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Re: NIndian: Active: Deep Depression (JTWC: Tropical Cyclone 03B

#34 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Jun 21, 2007 5:28 pm

This must be dumping a ludicrous amount of rain right now on them.
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Re: NIndian: Active: Deep Depression (JTWC: Tropical Cyclone 03B

#35 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 21, 2007 8:50 pm

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Landfall has occurred or it's about to.
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#36 Postby Chacor » Fri Jun 22, 2007 2:09 am

BOB 03/2007/06 Dated : 22nd June, 2007


Subject: Deep Depression over Bay of Bengal

The deep depression over westcentral Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards and crossed the Andhra Pradesh coast close to Kakinada around 0430 hrs IST of today, the 22nd June 2007. The System is likely to move in west-northwesterly direction.

Under its influence, widespread rains with scattered heavy to very heavy falls are likely over Andhra Pradesh, north coastal Tamilnadu & Puducherry during next 36 hrs. Isolated extremely heavy falls (> 25 cm) are also likely over central districts of coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during the same period.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph are likely along and off Andhra Pradesh and north Tamilnadu & Puducherry coasts during the next 12 hours.

Sea condition will be very rough to high. Fishermen of Andhra Pradesh and north Tamilnadu/Puducherry coasts are advised not to venture into the sea.
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Re: NIndian: Active: Deep Depression (JTWC: Tropical Cyclone 03B

#37 Postby RattleMan » Fri Jun 22, 2007 3:40 am

BOB 03/2007/07 Dated : 22nd June, 2007
Subject: Deep Depression over Bay of Bengal

The deep depression over Coastal Andhra Pradesh moved slightly westwards and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 22nd June 2007 over Coastal Andhra Pradesh near Gannavaram. The System is likely to move in a west-northwesterly direction and weaken gradually.

Under its influence, widespread rains with scattered heavy to very heavy falls are likely over Telengana and North interior Karnataka during next 24 hrs. As the system is likely to move in a west-northwesterly direction, Maharashtra, Goa and Gujarat region is likely to experience widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls during subsequent 24 hrs. Isolated extremely heavy falls (> 25 cm) are also likely over these regions during their respective periods.

Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are also likely over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Coastal & South interior Karnataka during next 24 hours.
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#38 Postby Chacor » Fri Jun 22, 2007 6:24 am

25 cm = 10 inches or so. Quite heavy.

JTWC last advisory is interesting:
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 79.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
12 KTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON RECENT DVORAK POSITION ESTIMATES, ANIMATED MULTISPEC-
TRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM STATIONS
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF INDIA. THE STORM CONTINUES TO TRACK
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN INDIA. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED ASHORE AND IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 12 DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIA AND MAY EVENTUALLY TRACK INTO THE ARABIAN
SEA AFTER SEVERAL DAYS, ALLOWING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME REGEN-
ERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 11 FEET.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
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#39 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jun 22, 2007 12:35 pm

Image

A lot of rain over western India.
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Re: NIndian: Active: Deep Depression (formerly TC03B) over land

#40 Postby WindRunner » Fri Jun 22, 2007 12:53 pm

I've been hesitant to say this, but . . . Arabian Sea, anyone?
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