TC 03B and 04B thread

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Re: NIndian: Active: Deep Depression (formerly TC03B) over land

#41 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jun 22, 2007 3:58 pm

WindRunner wrote:I've been hesitant to say this, but . . . Arabian Sea, anyone?


If atmospheric conditions are favorable in the Arabian Sea I would think it has a really good chance to redevelop.
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#42 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jun 22, 2007 5:18 pm

Image

Lots of rainfall.
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#43 Postby Chacor » Fri Jun 22, 2007 8:49 pm

Almost fully into the Arabian Sea now, let's see if the LLCC made it with the convection.
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Re: NIndian: Active: Deep Depression (formerly TC03B) over land

#44 Postby HurricaneRobert » Fri Jun 22, 2007 10:38 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/indian/images/xxirmet5n.GIF

That's quite a disturbance, but much further north than where Gonu started. I can't find any records of cyclones that have sucessfully crossed the middle of the subcontinent. Isn't June a little late for tropical cyclones here?

ETA, okay the old message board used to scale big images down. Any idea how to do it with the new one?
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#45 Postby Chacor » Sat Jun 23, 2007 8:37 am

BOB 03/2007/10 Dated : 23rd June, 2007

Subject: Depression over Madhya Maharashtra

Morning’s depression over Marathawada moved northwestwards and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 23rd June 2007 over Madhya Maharashtra about 50 KM northeast of Pune. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction and emerge into northeast Arabian Sea by tomorrow.

Under its influence, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall and isolated extremely heavy falls (> 25 cm) are likely over Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Konkan & Goa, Gujarat region and coastal Karnataka during next 24 hours.

Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are also likely over interior Karnataka and Saurashtra and Kutch during the same period.
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#46 Postby Chacor » Sat Jun 23, 2007 11:15 am

Heavy rain and floods have killed at least 45 people in the southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh.

Officials say up to 56,000 people have been displaced and moved to relief camps. Most people were killed when flash floods destroyed their homes.

The strong winds and rain have caused widespread damage, toppling electricity pylons and communication towers.

The annual monsoon set over southern India earlier this month and more rain is expected in the region.

The dead included 15 people swept away by a flash flood in Kurnool, 225km (140 miles) south-west of the state capital, Hyderabad.

Some were killed by lightning strikes.

Coast guards were looking for missing fishermen, who went to sea despite weather warnings, officials said.

Aid officials were distributing food, fresh water and medicine to people, some stranded on the roofs of houses and buses or up trees.

"I spent the night on my rooftop along with my family after flood water gushed into my house," Musari Venkateswarlu, a school teacher in Guntur's Macherla town, is quoted as telling Reuters news agency.

Many of the roads are under water and the relief is being dropped from the air.

"We have opened up 95 relief camps... for 56,000 displaced people and also brought in 200 medical teams to contain the spread of water-related diseases," said Preeti Sudan, disaster management commissioner for Andhra Pradesh.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6233380.stm
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#47 Postby WindRunner » Sat Jun 23, 2007 12:26 pm

Nice loop of HurricaneRobert's image above: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... cjava.html

Turn off (left-click) frames 3,5,7,9,11 and let it run . . . it looks like any circulation that remains is still over land, around 16/-76, and not moving much, either . . .

But it does seem to be too far north, the WNW motion from the BoB will probably keep it from significantly developing again.
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#48 Postby Chacor » Sat Jun 23, 2007 10:30 pm

Image

The convection made it across, and as it moved WNW it finds itself north of the jet... in favourable 5-15kt shear.
Image

The question is, did the low-level centre make it?
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#49 Postby Chacor » Sun Jun 24, 2007 4:17 am

Image
Image

BOB 03/2007/12 Dated : 24th June, 2007


Subject: Well marked Low Pressure area over Northeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Saurashtra and Kutch





The well marked low pressure area over north Konkan and neighbourhood moved northwestwards and lay over northeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Saurashtra & Kutch at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 24th June 2007. An off shore trough from this system extended to southeast Arabian Sea.

Under the above conditions, widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are likely over Saurashtra and Kutch, Gujarat region, Konkan & Goa , Madhya Maharashtra and coastal Karnataka during next 24 hours.

This is the last bulletin for this system
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Re: NIndian: TC03B/Deep Depression kills at least 45 in India

#50 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 24, 2007 6:27 am

http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/06/ ... ion=justin

Three days of heavy rain and flash floods killed 57 people across several Indian states and forced more than 100,000 from their homes, officials say.

The southern state of Andhra Pradesh was the worst hit with 32 dead, down from the previous official toll of 41 as missing people thought to have perished were found.

More than 100,000 people had been evacuated to 95 relief camps, officials said.

Some people feared dead were "traced stuck in trees half-a-kilometre away and have since been rescued in boats," the state's chief minister Rajasekhar Reddy told a news conference in its capital, Hyderabad.

Incessant rains since Thursday night dumped almost 200 millimetres of rain on low-lying areas in three districts, causing rivers and streams to flood.

Most of the deaths took place in the south-western district of Kurnool.

A disaster management official told AFP there was concern about the situation in Kurnool, where the Kundu River has overflowed and marooned Nandyal, a town of approximately 150,000 people.

In neighbouring Maharashtra state, 15 people died in house collapses from heavy downpours and lightning strikes, the Press Trust of India reported.

Another 10 deaths were reported from coastal Kerala state.

Hundreds of people die every year in India due to extreme weather. More than 100 people perished in a heatwave across northern India earlier this month.

-AFP
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#51 Postby Chacor » Sun Jun 24, 2007 8:41 am

Torrential rains and gale-force winds have led to the deaths of 228 people in the Pakistani city of Karachi.

Forty-three people were killed by the storms on Saturday, while the bodies of another 185 were recovered on Sunday, a health official said.

Dozens of people are said to have been injured as heavy winds brought down power lines and uprooted trees.

Karachi residents were already suffering from power cuts which have led to riots in the city.

Aid workers say the combination of flooded roads and fallen power cables have caused the largest number of fatalities, the BBC's Shoaib Hasan says.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6233868.stm
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#52 Postby Chacor » Sun Jun 24, 2007 8:42 am

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B ARE LOCATED NEAR
21.4N 71.5E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS OVER LAND, BUT NEARING THE COASTLINE.
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED AHEAD OF THE LLCC WHERE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE CYCLONE
CONVERGES WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ARABIAN SEA IS CONTRIBUTING TO
INCREASED CYCLONIC VORTICITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 200
MB ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN INDIA IS HELPING TO LOWER VALUES OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE REGION. IF THE LLCC MOVES BACK
OVER WATER, LOW VWS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO
A RAPID REGENERATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IF SUCH A SCENARIO
APPEARS IMMINENT, THE DISTURBANCE COULD BE DIRECTLY UPGRADED TO
GOOD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 992 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
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Re: NIndian: Storm kills 285 in India, Pakistan (ex-03B POOR)

#53 Postby P.K. » Sun Jun 24, 2007 9:33 am

Are the storm deaths in Pakistan as a direct result of this though? If you look back at the Meteosat 7 visible images then you can see convection fire up over Kirachi from around 0930GMT on Sat. At this point the depression was still centred about 50km NE of Pune some 1000km to the SE.

I've looked for some soundings for Pakistan for the day but have been unable to find any.
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#54 Postby Chacor » Sun Jun 24, 2007 9:40 am

Given that the convective area associated with 03B was rather large it's possible that the Pakistani convection and associated storm was from 03B... BBC report (on the WS) said the storm hit around 5 pm local time (1200Z) Saturday.
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#55 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 24, 2007 10:28 am

Image

Nice convection.
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Re: NIndian: ex-TC03B POOR, storms kill >200 in subcontinent

#56 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jun 24, 2007 6:23 pm

It looks very good right now, nice convection and looks to be redeveloping.
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Re: NIndian: ex-TC03B POOR, storms kill >200 in subcontinent

#57 Postby btangy » Sun Jun 24, 2007 6:36 pm

The persistent convection to the W of the circulation is the result of some very intense low level convergence associated with the circulation of TC03B and the northern extension of the Somali jet. Cloud top are at about -90C! Probably up close to 100mb. I don't have the latest QuikScat image from the area; in fact, I can't seem to get any QuikScat data currently. I hope it hasn't fallen out of the sky as Porenza foretold.
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Re: NIndian: ex-TC03B POOR, storms kill >200 in subcontinent

#58 Postby Coredesat » Sun Jun 24, 2007 6:49 pm

(1) THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B ARE LOCATED NEAR
22.0N 70.7E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS OVER LAND, BUT NEARING THE COASTLINE.
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED AHEAD OF THE LLCC WHERE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE CYCLONE
CONVERGES WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ARABIAN SEA IS CONTRIBUTING TO
INCREASED CYCLONIC VORTICITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 200
MB ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN INDIA IS HELPING TO LOWER VALUES OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE REGION.
THE LLCC HAS REACHED THE
COAST OF INDIA AND CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 992 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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Re: NIndian: ex-TC03B POOR, storms kill >200 in subcontinent

#59 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 24, 2007 6:58 pm

24/2030 UTC 21.2N 67.9E T2.0/2.0 03B -- Arabian Sea

Image

It seems redevelopment its very likely.
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Re: NIndian: ex-TC03B POOR, storms kill >200 in subcontinent

#60 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 24, 2007 7:16 pm

Sadly,Oman may get hit again after Gunu caused severe damage and floods killing plenty of people.Also if the track is similar like Gunu.oil prices will rise well over $70 a barrel as it closed at $69.14 on friday.
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