TC 03B and 04B thread

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AL Chili Pepper
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Re: Depression (TC 03B) in Arabian Sea forecast to hit Iran

#81 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Mon Jun 25, 2007 7:03 pm

It's not looking good for those over there, but it does look like the projected path has changed slightly since this morning....a little closer to the coast. I doubt it's much to interact with though. Can you imagine the sandstorm a Cat 3+ would create?
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#82 Postby btangy » Mon Jun 25, 2007 7:19 pm

It appears 03B is moving to the right of the guidance. Landfall might come soon near or to the east of Ormara, Pakistan (http://www.fallingrain.com/world/PK/2/Ormara.html), a city of about 40,000 according to Wikipedia situated on a very low lying penninsula. What's very alarming about the geography is there are some modest highlands to the S forming the fat base of the skinny neck of the penninsula where most of the city is located. This could make for a very serious landslide and flooding threat given the very intense rainfall 03B is producing and the relatively slow movement.
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#83 Postby btangy » Mon Jun 25, 2007 7:30 pm

Nice AMSRE overpass at 21:30Z: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/I ... E.90pc.jpg

Can see a nice banded eye feature and it appears 03B will make landfall within the next 6 hours extrapolating the current motion, so it will not strengthen as much as it could have if it remained over water even 12 hours longer, and as Derek pointed out... it was well on its way.
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Derek Ortt

Re: Depression (TC 03B) in Arabian Sea forecast to hit Iran

#84 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jun 25, 2007 7:36 pm

if the guidance is correct, it would turn more to the west as it intensifies. If the guidance is accurate, this would mean many more people will be affected. Just get it inland as the equivalent of a category 1
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#85 Postby HurricaneRobert » Mon Jun 25, 2007 7:41 pm

Why does it take them so long to name it?
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Derek Ortt

Re: Depression (TC 03B) in Arabian Sea forecast to hit Iran

#86 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jun 25, 2007 7:59 pm

1. Please change the title, this is whacking Pakistan and Iran

2. Max sustained winds are likely close to 60KT right now. Not sure what the Indian's are doing with this one. They handled Gonu very well... but this one baffles me
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#87 Postby Coredesat » Mon Jun 25, 2007 8:13 pm

Biiiig blowup over the center:

Image

I agree with Derek, this could reach hurricane-equivalent intensity pretty quickly if this trend continues. IMD still only has this as a deep depression.
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Re:

#88 Postby Chacor » Mon Jun 25, 2007 8:15 pm

HurricaneRobert wrote:Why does it take them so long to name it?


The JTWC does not name storms. IMD doesn't issue advisories overnight, so next advisory from them soon.
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Re: Deep Depression (TC 03B) in A.Sea forecast to hit W Pakistan

#89 Postby Praxus » Mon Jun 25, 2007 9:08 pm

Starting to look nasty

Image
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#90 Postby Chacor » Mon Jun 25, 2007 10:03 pm

WTIO31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 25.1N 65.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1N 65.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 25.6N 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 25.7N 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 25.7N 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 25.2N 64.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED
ENHANCED IR IMAGERY AS WELL AS PREVIOUS 25/2124Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS. IN THE LAST 06 HOURS TC 03B HAS HAD A
SIGNIFICANT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THIS COINCIDES WELL WITH INCREASED DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. INTENSIFICATION HAS LED TO A GREATER MID-LEVEL STEERING
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE TC. THIS WESTWARD
STEERING FLOW WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASING WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR
TRACK FORECAST. TC 03B WILL MAKE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 26/02Z.
INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND LACK OF WARM OPEN WATER
WILL LEAD TO TC DISSIPATION BY TAU 36 DESPITE THE FAVORABLE SHEAR
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z,
262100Z AND 270300Z.//
NNNN

Landfall made.
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#91 Postby btangy » Mon Jun 25, 2007 10:12 pm

Hard to tell from the first few frames of visible imagery, but it appears that the current blowup of deep convection is to the SW of the LLC (consistent with the shear direction) and 03B has made landfall near or slightly E of Ormara.
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#92 Postby Chacor » Mon Jun 25, 2007 10:17 pm

IMD seems to disagree with sat imagery and JTWC over landfall.

WTIN01 DEMS 260100

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 12 HOURS. FROM 26/06/ 2007 0100 UTC 26 JUNE 2007

PART -I : THE DEEP DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTH ARABIAN SEA
NOW LIES CENTRED AT 1800 UTC OF TODAY THE 25TH
JUNE 2007 NEAR LAT. 24.2 DEG N/LONG 66.3 DEG E
ABOUT 250 KMS WNW OF NALIYA (.) SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
INTENSIFIED FURTHER AND MOVE WNW-LY DIRECTION AND
CROSS PAK COAST BETWEEN 62.0 DEG E AND 63.0 DEG.E BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING (.)
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Derek Ortt

Re: Deep Depression (TC 03B) LANDFALL in S.Central Pakistan

#93 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jun 25, 2007 10:41 pm

IMD also doesn't believe this is of TS intensity, which to be honest, is one of the most bizzarre things I have ever seen, and has me questioning what is going on
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#94 Postby Alacane2 » Mon Jun 25, 2007 10:53 pm

I know that the IMD has official naming responsibility for the Arabian Sea, however, the Pakistan Meteorology Department is calling this system Yemyin.

http://www.pakmet.com.pk/sindhadvisory.html

From Advisory 6: Tropical Cyclone 03B (YEMYIN) during the last six hours has moved North-Westerly direction and its intensity has also decreased slightly. Now its distance from Karachi has increased to 130 km. The nearest distance from Karachi was 90 Km during the night.
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#95 Postby Chacor » Mon Jun 25, 2007 11:09 pm

They have done this before once, in 2005 (04B was called "Baaz" by Pakistan, but IMD did not name it, and 05B was named Baaz by IMD). The next time the IMD names a storm (be it this one or not) it'll still be Yemyin.
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Re:

#96 Postby Coredesat » Mon Jun 25, 2007 11:21 pm

Chacor wrote: PART -I : THE DEEP DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTH ARABIAN SEA


IMD really doesn't want to name this...
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Re: Deep Depression (TC 03B) LANDFALL in S.Central Pakistan

#97 Postby HurricaneRobert » Mon Jun 25, 2007 11:48 pm

IMD doesn't issue advisories overnight? That's crazy. This thing should've been named long ago.

04B didn't really affect Pakistan, did it?
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Coredesat

#98 Postby Coredesat » Tue Jun 26, 2007 12:41 am

Subject: DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE 26TH JUNE 2007 NEAR LAT. 24.00N AND LONG. 65.00E, ABOUT 400 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NALIYA (42631). SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND 30 KTS GUSTING TO 40 KTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE SEA CONDITION IS VERY ROUGH.

FORCAST : THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN NORTH WESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS PAKISTAN COAST NEAR LONG. 64.0 DEG. EAST BY TODAY 26TH JUNE 2007 NOON.
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Re: Deep Depression (TC 03B) LANDFALL in S.Central Pakistan

#99 Postby HurricaneRobert » Tue Jun 26, 2007 12:48 am

Image

This is past Deep Depression. Does anyone else think that some of these countries to India's west are going to want a new RSMC for the Arabian Sea because of this?
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Re: Deep Depression (TC 03B) LANDFALL in S.Central Pakistan

#100 Postby Normandy » Tue Jun 26, 2007 2:39 am

I mean.
I may not know much about tropical cyclones....but that looks like a hurricane. And not a weak one.
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