TC 03B and 04B thread

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
superg77
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 37
Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2007 4:07 am

Re: NIndian: ex-TC03B POOR, storms kill >200 in subcontinent

#61 Postby superg77 » Sun Jun 24, 2007 7:35 pm

cycloneye wrote:Sadly,Oman may get hit again after Gunu caused severe damage and floods killing plenty of people.Also if the track is similar like Gunu.oil prices will rise well over $70 a barrel as it closed at $69.14 on friday.


Wow. Two very rare hurricanes possibly hitting Oman. Clearly evidence of global warming in my opionion. Hope we are not too late to save our world. :cry:
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#62 Postby Chacor » Sun Jun 24, 2007 8:02 pm

WTIO21 PGTW 250000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/WTIO21 PGTW 250000
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.8N 70.5E TO 22.5N 65.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 241800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 22.5N 69.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B LOCATED
NEAR 22.6N 69.6E, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTH-WEST OF
MUMBAI, INDIA HAS REGENERATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CROSSED THE COAST LINE INTO THE
NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE ARABIAN SEA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OVER NORTHERN INDIA. RAPID
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 996 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260000Z.//
NNNN
0 likes   

HurricaneRobert
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 812
Joined: Fri May 18, 2007 9:31 pm

Re: Active: ex-TC 03B TCFA in Arabian Sea

#63 Postby HurricaneRobert » Sun Jun 24, 2007 8:49 pm

Wow. Two very rare hurricanes possibly hitting Oman. Clearly evidence of global warming in my opionion. Hope we are not too late to save our world. :cry:


If there's anytime for two freak occurances such as this to occur, it would be the same season because the conditions are the same.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#64 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 24, 2007 9:14 pm

Image

Image
0 likes   

Cyclone1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2739
Age: 32
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:03 pm
Location: Florida

#65 Postby Cyclone1 » Sun Jun 24, 2007 9:18 pm

Let's hope this stays close to land so it doesn't rapidly deepen.
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

Re: Active: ex-TC 03B TCFA in Arabian Sea

#66 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Jun 24, 2007 11:02 pm

that one is a likely major problem. Thing is taking up nearly all of the Arabian Sea and should ly explode. Would not be shocked to see this near hurricane intensity within 24 if the center can get far enough over the water
0 likes   

User avatar
Matt-hurricanewatcher
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11649
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Nov 26, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Portland,OR
Contact:

Re: Active: ex-TC 03B TCFA in Arabian Sea

#67 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Jun 25, 2007 12:31 am

LLC looks to be over water now.
0 likes   

Coredesat

#68 Postby Coredesat » Mon Jun 25, 2007 1:03 am

The LLC is indeed over water. It looks like the convection is starting to wrap around:

Image
0 likes   

Coredesat

#69 Postby Coredesat » Mon Jun 25, 2007 1:21 am

051
TPIO10 PGTW 250613

A. TROPICAL STORM 03B (NE ARABIAN SEA)

B. 25/0530Z

C. 22.8N/2

D. 67.7E/0

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (25/0530Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .40 ON
LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. PT SUPPORTS. MET
IS 2.0. DBO DT.

LUCENTE

------------

WWIO20 KNES 250330
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN MET-7 VIS/IRDAY
.
JUNE 25 2007 0230Z
.
22.2N 67.8E T2.5/2.5/D1.0/12HRS 03B.

PAST POSITIONS...21.0N 67.5E 24/1430Z IRNIGHT
.
REMARKS...SYSTEM CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WITH DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT BANDING
OF JUST OVER 4 TENTHS YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. PT AGREES. FINAL T
BASED ON DT.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 25/1000Z.
.
FOR AREAL DISPLAY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEE OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/TROP/TRAP.HTML
ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS EXCEPT PS/TROP
.
.
NNNN
0 likes   

Coredesat

#70 Postby Coredesat » Mon Jun 25, 2007 3:52 am

It's back:

WTIO31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242351Z JUN 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 22.9N 67.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N 67.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 23.6N 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 24.4N 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 25.4N 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 26.5N 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 66.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 03B ORIGINALLY MADE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST
OF INDIA ON 22 JUN, BUT HAS NOW RE-EMERGED INTO THE ARABIAN SEA AND
REGENERATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE CURRENT WARNING IS THUS THE
FOURTH WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), ALTHOUGH
THE CENTER HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED OVER THE LAST 03 HOURS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NORTH-
WESTERN INDIA MAY BE INHIBITING CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC.
DESPITE THIS FACT, DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE AT 2.5/2.5,
THUS YIELDING THE CURRENT 35 KT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A STRONG MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN PAKISTAN THROUGH IRAN. THE ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND THUS THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LIMITED FOR
THE STORM, BUT THE FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
PERFORMED WELL WITH THE SYSTEM SO FAR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
STRONG REGION OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE
WEST OF THE STORM, AND AS IT TRACKS AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE, CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP OVER THE LLCC. THUS, THE
TC IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER
SOUTHEASTERN IRAN NEAR TAU 36. THE TC WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN OVER THE
RUGGED TERRAIN, AND WILL HAVE DISSIPATED AS A TC BY TAU 48. THE
EXTENT OF THE SOUTHERN 35 KT WIND RADII ARE ENHANCED DUE TO THE
STRONG GRADIENT SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON FLOW ACROSS THE ARABIAN SEA.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 242351Z
JUN 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 250000).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.//

-----------

Subject: Depression over Northeast Arabian Sea

THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA CONCENTRATED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 25TH JUNE 2007 OVER NORTH EAST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LAT. 23.50N AND LONG. 67.50E, ABOUT 150 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NALIYA (42631). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION INITIALLY.

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH ARABIAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER WEST CENTRAL & ADJOINNG NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA.

RIDGE LINE AT 200 hPa PASSES THROUGH AROUND 240 NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION.
0 likes   

HurricaneRobert
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 812
Joined: Fri May 18, 2007 9:31 pm

Re: Depression (TC 03B) in Arabian Sea forecast to hit Iran

#71 Postby HurricaneRobert » Mon Jun 25, 2007 10:06 am

When do they name it Yemyin?
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

Re: Depression (TC 03B) in Arabian Sea forecast to hit Iran

#72 Postby Chacor » Mon Jun 25, 2007 10:11 am

HurricaneRobert wrote:When do they name it Yemyin?


Naming responsibility lies with the RSMC, which is the IMD, when they determine the storm to warrant cyclonic storm (34 kt) status.
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#73 Postby Chacor » Mon Jun 25, 2007 10:13 am

WTIO31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 23.5N 66.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 66.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 24.6N 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 25.7N 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 27.0N 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 23.8N 65.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), ALTHOUGH CONVECTION
HAS BEEN MOSTLY ABSENT OVER THE CENTER. HOWEVER, THE MOST RECENT SAT-
ELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FLARES OF CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FROM KARACHI, PAKISTAN ARE 26KTS AND 990 MB SLP,
WITH A 3 MB PRESSURE DROP OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS
TAKEN A JOG TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, AND THUS LANDFALL
IS NOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST- NOW JUST
PRIOR TO TAU 24. LANDFALL IS ALSO NOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR FURTHER TO
THE EAST OVER WESTERN PAKISTAN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
EXTREMELY LIMITED FOR THE STORM, BUT THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES
TO FAVOR THE ECMWF. DUE TO STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IN THE REGION, THE TC WILL INTENSIFY PRIOR TO MAKING LAND-
FALL AND COULD REACH 55 KTS PRIOR TO TAU 18. THE TC WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN, AND WILL HAVE DISSIPATED AS A TC BY
TAU 36. THE EXTENT OF THE SOUTHERN 35 KT WIND RADII ARE ENHANCED DUE
TO THE STRONG GRADIENT SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON FLOW ACROSS THE ARABIAN
SEA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.//
NNNN
0 likes   

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

Re: Depression (TC 03B) in Arabian Sea forecast to hit Iran

#74 Postby P.K. » Mon Jun 25, 2007 12:32 pm

Back as a Deep Depression now.

Dated : 25th June, 2007

Subject: DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA

MORNING’S DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA MOVED WESTWARDS, INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 25TH JUNE 2007 OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LAT. 23.50N AND LONG. 66.50E, ABOUT 250 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NALIYA (42631). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS PAKISTAN COAST BETWEEN LONG. 62.00E AND 63.00E BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAIN SURFACE WIND SPEED AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE IS 30 KTS. SEA CONDITION AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE IS VERY ROUGH.

INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH ARABIAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

Re: Depression (TC 03B) in Arabian Sea forecast to hit Iran

#75 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jun 25, 2007 12:54 pm

This thing looks like it is blowing up very rapidly based upon the latest satellite imagery

<a href="http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?ACTIVES=07-IO-03B.NONAME,07-EPAC-93E.INVEST&PHOT=yes&ATCF_BASIN=io&NAV=tc&ATCF_YR=2007&ATCF_FILE=/data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2007/io032007.07062512.gif&CURRENT=20070625.1420.scat_FNMOC.wind.696.03BNONAME.35kts-990mb-235N-664E.jpg&AGE=Latest&CURRENT_ATCF=io032007.07062512.gif&ATCF_NAME=io032007&ATCF_DIR=/data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2007&YEAR=2007&YR=07&ACTION=Latest_Photos&ARCHIVE=active&MO=JUN&BASIN=IO&STORM_NAME=03B.NONAME&STYLE=tables&AREA=pacific/southern_hemisphere&AID_DIR=/TC/tc07/IO/93E.INVEST/tpw/microvap&DISPLAY=Latest&DIR=/TC/tc07/IO/03B.NONAME/ssmi/scat/wind_barbs&TYPE=ssmi&PROD=scat&SUB_PRODUCT=wind_barbs&SIZE=full">Scatterometer Winds</a>

Seems quite likely that the winds are well above what JTWC is indicating. One minute winds may be closer to 50KT judging by the scat pass and the afternoon satellite signature
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

Re: Depression (TC 03B) in Arabian Sea forecast to hit Iran

#76 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jun 25, 2007 12:56 pm

can we PLEASE allow html here. This UBB code is like greek to figure out, whereas html is quite simple when posting a link
0 likes   

User avatar
wxmann_91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8013
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
Location: Southern California
Contact:

#77 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Jun 25, 2007 1:15 pm

Derek,

Code: Select all

[url=blahblahblah.com]Blah Blah~![/url]


It's pretty similar to HTML.


Regarding this system, I'm surprised it still looks good... nice equatorial outflow. Northerly shear should preclude any really rapid intensification. If this was further south, this would likely be a strong system right now.
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

Re: Depression (TC 03B) in Arabian Sea forecast to hit Iran

#78 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jun 25, 2007 4:26 pm

JTWC now has this at 45KT

WTIO31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 24.2N 66.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 66.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 24.8N 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 25.1N 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 25.5N 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 25.7N 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 65.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 251454Z
SSMI IMAGE SUPPORT A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS WELL AS A SLIGHT RE-POSITIONING OF THE 25/12Z WARNING
POSITION APPROXIMATELY 20NM EAST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AS WELL AS A WARM SPOT EVIDENT IN THE
SSMI 37V IMAGE. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS BUT ALSO LOOKS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED.
THE LATEST SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION FROM KARACHI, PAKISTAN SHOWS WINDS OF
150/18KTS AND SLP NEAR 990MB. THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS STILL REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT
WINDS. TC 03B IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 03B IS
FORECAST TO RESUME A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES AND STEERS UNDER THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS BUILT IN
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY WITHIN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNTIL IT MAKES
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 24. AFTERWARDS, IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AND
SLOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHWEST PAKISTAN. THE
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FORECAST, HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT
TRACK WITH THE KEY FACTOR BEING TC STRENGTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z,
260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.//
NNNN


For once, I agree with their intensity estimate and think they may be slightly on the low side
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

Re: Depression (TC 03B) in Arabian Sea forecast to hit Iran

#79 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jun 25, 2007 4:59 pm

unfortunately, the NRL and backup sites are down for the count at the present time
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#80 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jun 25, 2007 6:34 pm

Latest satellite imagery shows an incredible blow-up right over the center. I would not be surprised to see an eye form here overnight tonight and have a very strong hurricane landfall. Shear is decreasing as it moves to the WNW so RI is very likely
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: CyclonicFury, NotSparta, TheWisestofAll and 65 guests