TC 03B and 04B thread

[Aslkahuna]

Hate to say it but maybe the Indians are playing politics with the Pakistanis considering the great animosity between the two countries.

Steve

[Chacor]

IMD agrees on landfall time to be around 02-03Z this morning.

JTWC is still issuing warnings despite the storm being inland and not forecast to track back into water, which is very, very unusual and uncommon for the JTWC.
WTIO31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 25.7N 64.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7N 64.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 26.1N 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 26.2N 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 25.8N 63.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 260323Z SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS. TC 03B MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN PAKISTAN ABOUT 260300Z AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NOW APPROXIMATELY 23 NM INLAND. A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BEEN OBSERVED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER LAND. THE STEERING RIDGE TO
THE NORTH HAS LED TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND TC 03B IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK INCREASINGLY WESTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY TAU 24.
THE MAJORITY OF THE AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORE-
CAST AND THE DISSIPATION SCENARIO. AS AN ALTERNATE, BUT LESS LIKELY
SCENARIO, A COUPLE OF THE AIDS ATTEMPT TO TRACK THE REMNANT CIRCU-
LATION BACK OVER WATER WHERE WEAK REGENERATION IS POSSIBLE. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.//

NNNN

[Derek Ortt]

I was thinking the same thing Steve that India was politicizing this. Really no other explanation. That, or their forecasters are worse than Great One

[P.K.]

IMD doesn't issue advisories overnight? That's crazy. This thing should've been named long ago.

Well not public advisories for weak systems no. They will still issue marine and aviation warnings overnight.

[HurricaneRobert]

Hate to say it but maybe the Indians are playing politics with the Pakistanis considering the great animosity between the two countries.

That's what I was thinking. However it's now being called Yemyin in the media:

[url="http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/articles/2007/06/26/cyclone_hits_pakistan_thousands_flee/"]Cyclone on Pakistan's coast kills 10[/url]

[Chacor]

Yes, Pakistan decided to name it Yemyin and everyone's picking up on that. I've already had to email the BBC to tell them not to refer to it as "cyclone Yemyin".

Regardless of naming, for a storm that made landfall almost 12 hours ago, it still has an amazing structure.

[Chacor]

If anyone is interested, I just emailed the IMD over this. Some key points I raised:

I would hope that the IMD realises that the next name on the list, "Yemyin", has been given by Pakistan to this cyclone, even though I am aware that in the end, IMD maintains naming responsibility.

Unlike the last time this happened, in 2005 with Baaz, this cyclone has caused a fair amount of damage and has been reported worldwide as "Cyclone Yemyin" by the media (ranging from the BBC, to Ynet, to Boston Globe). I hope that the IMD has foresight to acknowledge that naming the next storm "Yemyin" would cause major confusion.

Basically asked them if it was feasible to just name the next storm "Sidr" and acknowledge that, even if they did not name it, the name "Yemyin" is now associated worldwide with this storm.

[Cyclone1]

Reminds me of the STS1 - TD1 situation in the Atlantic 1992.

[btangy]

KARACHI: At least 12 people, including two Hindu pilgrims, were killed and thousands evacuated from their homes in Pakistan's Sindh and Baluchistan provinces due to a tropical cyclone which lashed the country's Arabian Sea coast with heavy rains and strong winds on Tuesday.

Cyclone Yemyin, packing winds of speeds up to 130 km per hour, has has hit the coast of southwestern Pakistan leading to torrential rains which would continue for the next 24 hours, said Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, Director-General of the country's meteorological department.

"A dozen people have died due to the cyclone-related incidents," said Raziq Bugti, a spokesman for Balochistan province government.

Two Hindu pilgrims drowned in a rainwater drain in Lasbella on the outskirts of Karachi while dozens more were missing, officials said.

After the initial impact at around 11 am (local time), the strength of the cyclone has started reducing, Chaudhry said.

Thousands of people were evacuated from the coastal areas of Gwadar, Pasni, Omara, Jivani in Balochistan which were directly in the path of the cyclone while emergency measures were also taken in Karachi to keep people away from the beaches. Small fishing villages on the outskirts of the port city were also being evacuated, officials said.

[chaupal]

Hate to say it but maybe the Indians are playing politics with the Pakistanis considering the great animosity between the two countries.

Steve

WOW.....that was a cheap shot....don't see any relation between public advisory for this storm and politics.

[Derek Ortt]

we had a "deep depression" bringing near hurricane conditions. Something is up than that. As I said, maybe they hired Great One to do their forecasts (he must be making up for all of his hyperinflated winds with hyperdeflated winds)

[Derek Ortt]

has anyone heard any news regarding this storm as of yet? What were the effects on the coastline, besides the brief early report

[StormWarning1]

has anyone heard any news regarding this storm as of yet? What were the effects on the coastline, besides the brief early report

http://thenews.jang.com.pk/updates.asp?id=24992

[Derek Ortt]

glad that made landfall when it did. It was well on its way to becoming a major. Wonder if this did reach hurricane force before it crossed the coast (it was very close)

[StormWarning1]

glad that made landfall when it did. It was well on its way to becoming a major. Wonder if this did reach hurricane force before it crossed the coast (it was very close)

If it had turned into a major and stayed on a more westerly course this could have been a disaster for the city of Dubai in the UAE.
They may want to reconsider this type of sub-division development.

http://www.pbase.com/bmcmorrow/image/26158646" target="_blank

[wxman57]

I've been hearing Dvorak estimates of 4.0 and 65 kts at landfall. Pretty good for a "depression".

[Aslkahuna]

Like it or not, politics can play a role in weather as can military requirements (which is probably why JT has hung on to the system overland). During WWII all observational weather data and marine forecasts were classifed which lead to hurricanes hitting the US unannounced (best example being the 1943 hurricane in TX which was the first flown into). During the Cold War the Chinese and Russians would deliberately send out bogus weather information in an attempt to mess with the forecasts downstream-this kept up until the satellite era began when we then knew what was over there. It's obvious in this particular situation that even allowing for 10 minute wind speeds that TC03B was considerably stronger than a deep depression. If there wasn't a political game involved then they must have some incompetent forecasters there (which is not in keeping with what I know about the Indians) or as Derek says may they've hired Great One.

Steve

[HurricaneRobert]

That is a shame, I don't think they should be playing tricks like this.

[P.K.]

This is the so called "naming" of BOB 0703. I'm wondering just how this follows international practice??

UPDATE: Tropical Cyclone Named & Numbered

This evening Tropical cyclone formed in Arabian Sea as per international practice has been named and numbered as follows

1. Number :03B
2. Name: YEMYIN

http://www.pakmet.com.pk/sindhadvisory.html

[Derek Ortt]

I'll put 100 dollars on India calling the next cyclone Yemyin