#70 Postby Coredesat » Mon Jun 25, 2007 3:52 am
It's back:
WTIO31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242351Z JUN 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 22.9N 67.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N 67.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 23.6N 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 24.4N 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 25.4N 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 26.5N 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 66.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 03B ORIGINALLY MADE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST
OF INDIA ON 22 JUN, BUT HAS NOW RE-EMERGED INTO THE ARABIAN SEA AND
REGENERATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CURRENT WARNING IS THUS THE
FOURTH WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), ALTHOUGH
THE CENTER HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED OVER THE LAST 03 HOURS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NORTH-
WESTERN INDIA MAY BE INHIBITING CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC.
DESPITE THIS FACT, DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE AT 2.5/2.5,
THUS YIELDING THE CURRENT 35 KT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A STRONG MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN PAKISTAN THROUGH IRAN. THE ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND THUS THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LIMITED FOR
THE STORM, BUT THE FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
PERFORMED WELL WITH THE SYSTEM SO FAR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
STRONG REGION OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE
WEST OF THE STORM, AND AS IT TRACKS AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE, CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP OVER THE LLCC. THUS, THE
TC IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER
SOUTHEASTERN IRAN NEAR TAU 36. THE TC WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN OVER THE
RUGGED TERRAIN, AND WILL HAVE DISSIPATED AS A TC BY TAU 48. THE
EXTENT OF THE SOUTHERN 35 KT WIND RADII ARE ENHANCED DUE TO THE
STRONG GRADIENT SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON FLOW ACROSS THE ARABIAN SEA.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 242351Z
JUN 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 250000).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.//
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Subject: Depression over Northeast Arabian Sea
THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA CONCENTRATED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 25TH JUNE 2007 OVER NORTH EAST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LAT. 23.50N AND LONG. 67.50E, ABOUT 150 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NALIYA (42631). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION INITIALLY.
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH ARABIAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER WEST CENTRAL & ADJOINNG NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA.
RIDGE LINE AT 200 hPa PASSES THROUGH AROUND 240 NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION.
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