TC 03B and 04B thread

[P.K.]

BOB 04/2007/13 Dated : 30th June 2007

Sub: Well marked low pressure area over east Madhya Pradesh adjoining west Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha

Morning’s depression over east Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Chhattisgarh has further weakened and lay as a well marked low pressure area over east Madhya Pradesh, adjoining west Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha 1430 hrs IST of today, the 30th June 2007.

Under its influence, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls (>25 cms) are likely over south Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha during next 24 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are also likely over Chhattisgarh during the same period.

The enhance rainfall activity is also likely to extend to Marathawada and Madhya Maharastra during next 24 hours.

This is the last bulletin for this system.

[Coredesat]

This system is still firing deep convection to the south and west of its center. If a new LLCC develops under the convection as it moves into the Arabian Sea, this thing could regenerate:

[Chacor]

Yesterday’s deep depression over central India remained practically stationary and has weakened to a well marked low pressure area. It is expected to move towards Southern Sindh. Normally such monsoon systems re-curve towards Punjab and catchment areas. But there is a high probability that it will cross to Arabian Sea and after re-intensifying there it will move along Sind- Balochistan coast.

Sindh

This strong monsoon weather system is expected to cause widespread heavy rains accompanied with gusty winds in Sindh during the next four (04) days. Maximum intensity of the rains in Sindh including Karachi is expected to be within morning of 3rd July to 4th July, 2007 night.

Balochistan

Scattered rains are expected in the province during the next 48 hours. However, if the system continues to develop which is expected, the heavy rains are likely to start in Southern Balochistan from 4th July and may continue up to 6th July, 2007. Maximum rains are likely to be in Southern Balochistan especially coastal areas, but other parts of Balochistan may also receive widespread rains during this period.

Punjab, Islamabad and Catchment Areas

Strong moist monsoon currents under the influence of this weather system are reaching in above mentioned areas. Which are likely to cause widespread rains at times heavy in these areas during the next 03 days.

Moderate to heavy rainfall is also expected in Kashmir and earthquake areas during next 03 days.

[Chacor]

[Chacor]

Look familiar, anyone? Looks like it survived.

[philnyc]

I moved this post over here. Sorry, guys. I didn't see this thread on 04B.

Looks like 04B has hung on, and may get out over the northern Arabian Sea just like the last one.

NAVY:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... k_vis/dmsp

BTW, I haven't done any analysis on what the atmosphere is doing over there yet, so this is just quick speculation. Anyone know what the upper winds are like? This storm/depression probably extends to about 500mb or maybe 400mb, so the steering winds should be low to mid level at this point.

[Derek Ortt]

depending upon where any remnant center is. If it is associated with the convection, the circulation probably extends throughout most of the troposphere and a deep layer mean flow would probably be the best predictor (maybe a 200-850mb mean flow)

[wxmann_91]

I moved this post over here. Sorry, guys. I didn't see this thread on 04B.

Looks like 04B has hung on, and may get out over the northern Arabian Sea just like the last one.

NAVY:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... k_vis/dmsp

BTW, I haven't done any analysis on what the atmosphere is doing over there yet, so this is just quick speculation. Anyone know what the upper winds are like? This storm/depression probably extends to about 500mb or maybe 400mb, so the steering winds should be low to mid level at this point.

Phil,
Here's a good resource:
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html

Go to model forecast maps --> contoured maps

[philnyc]

Thanks, Jim. I know that one; it's quite good. I just haven't had the time to get to it yet. Have you used the IMD charts for the monsoon and/or tropical cyclones? They're really good:
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/welcome.htm

Also, the Penn State e-wall site is far superior to most others for the tropics. I think you can get to the link (I sure hope so!) Click on Indian Ocean. The satellite loop alone makes it worth it. But they have all of the latest model output there.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/ewalltropmain.html

From a brief check earlier, it appears that the steering winds are mostly northward or northwestward around 04B right now, but I have a feeling they're shifting more westward as we speak. You can poke around in there and decide for yourself.

[wxmann_91]

Thanks, Jim. I know that one; it's quite good. I just haven't had the time to get to it yet. Have you used the IMD charts for the monsoon and/or tropical cyclones? They're really good:
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/welcome.htm

Also, the Penn State e-wall site is far superior to most others for the tropics. I think you can get to the link (I sure hope so!) Click on Indian Ocean. The satellite loop alone makes it worth it. But they have all of the latest model output there.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/ewalltropmain.html

From a brief check earlier, it appears that the steering winds are mostly northward or northwestward around 04B right now, but I have a feeling they're shifting more westward as we speak. You can poke around in there and decide for yourself.

Thanks for the links. I already knew about the second one. I agree that it is exceptional in terms of the data and maps offered. Did not know about the first one. It looks like a great site, and a very useful one considering that the link for the ECMWF maps for the IO has been broken for quite some time now.

[philnyc]

Agreed. I've got plenty more links for you and I'm sure you've got plenty for all of us. It's gonna be a great summer.

[Chacor]

(1) THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B ARE LOCATED NEAR
23.6N 74.4E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MUMBAI, INDIA.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND SURFACE WEATHER OBSER-
VATIONS INDICATE MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS (LLCCS) OVER
WEST-CENTRAL INDIA AND TRACKING TOWARDS THE ARABIAN SEA. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF
THE LLCCS IN A CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT BUT STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
990 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[Hurricania]

Do you guys think 04B can affect countries like Oman and the UAE in any way?

[philnyc]

Do you guys think 04B can affect countries like Oman and the UAE in any way?

It doesn't look like it will have much effect there at this point. Look at this GFS 4-panel loop from Penn State's e-wall:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/GFS ... sloop.html

The upper left shows steering winds averaged from 850-250mb. And the bottom right shows RH at mid-levels (700mb). The steering winds are mostly from the southwest at about 10 knots right now, which is keeping it pinned over northwest India, but it shows them weakening by the end of this week, which could allow it to drift westward and cause some cloudiness (see the green blobs in lower right panel) over NE Oman on the 07/08 chart. The upper right chart shows surface pressures and isobars. It's a little hard to read because the top is cut off, but it looks like the low does eventually drift westward or maybe southwestward, but remains over land - southern Iran by this weekend. And these charts (the GFS, at any rate) don't show any intensification. But remember, it is so close to that very warm water that any southward drift could get the center over the water and cause reintensification. To be honest, right now I wouldn't give it much of a chance - looks like it will just drift around and weaken further.
Having said all of that, remember that the forecasts haven't been doing that well on the Arabian Sea side of things so far this season.

[Hurricania]

^^ Unfortunately, the link doesn't work (a mistake in the completeness of the URL it seems).

and thank you for the explanation. I was hoping for it to rain a little here in the UAE but I guess that's like a 0.000001% chance as I don't think there's hardly any chance for 04B to re-intensify near Oman or the UAE due to dry air.

[philnyc]

^^ Unfortunately, the link doesn't work (a mistake in the completeness of the URL it seems).

and thank you for the explanation. I was hoping for it to rain a little here in the UAE but I guess that's like a 0.000001% chance as I don't think there's hardly any chance for 04B to re-intensify near Oman or the UAE due to dry air.

Agreed. Try the link below; then click on Indian Ocean; then under 1200 4-panel maps, click on GFS (ALL). You of course can then check on the CMC (Canadian) and NAVY (NOGAPS) to see how they're calling it right now.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/ewalltropmain.html

[Coredesat]

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 74.4E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 74.2E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF KARACHI,
PAKISTAN. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY
DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
(REMNANTS OF TC 04B) WHICH HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING WEST OF THE LLCC, HOWEVER, QUIKSCAT AND SURFACE DATA SHOW
STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHWEST INDIA/SOUTH PAKISTAN.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES EASTERLY, DIFLUENT FLOW WHICH IS
ENHANCING THIS DEEP CONVECTION. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF TC 04B ARE UNFAVORABLE WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE CENTER AND OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN
SEA. THERFORE, THIS AREA IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

[Chacor]

97B:

[Chacor]

Current total death toll from 03B is AT LEAST 1163, and the toll is still rising every day.

[philnyc]

Current total death toll from 03B is AT LEAST 1163, and the toll is still rising every day.

Tragic, and doesn't get the deserved coverage it should in the "west". Looks like the low you just posted an IR satellite of may be a depression by Wednesday or Thursday.