TC 03B and 04B thread

[P.K.]

Well it is the next name on the list so that is what I'm expecting. Similar thing happened with Baaz as well.

[Normandy]

Now I must ask:
Although they hit different countries, why did Gonu weaken and Yemyin bomb near the coast? Aren't the regions both suppose to be dry?

[wxmann_91]

PW analysis showed some pretty dry air when Gonu was heading toward Oman. This time, it was very very moist. Pakistan is not a desert like Oman is. Also, when Gonu headed toward Oman, the wet monsoon had not begun yet. This TC was associated with a strong monsoonal surge.

[Coredesat]

I'll put 100 dollars on India calling the next cyclone Yemyin

I don't think anyone's going to be willing to take that bet, because unless there's some kind of change within IMD, that's pretty much going to happen.

[Chacor]

96B INVEST:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5N
89.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 89.0E, APPROXIMATELY 32 NM EAST OF
VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUING
TO ORGANIZE AND WRAP INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT
POSITION HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS IR-BASED
POSITION AND REFLECTS A BROAD LLCC. THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR REMAINS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER,
THE UW CIMSS METEOSAT-7 DATA SHOWS A DECREASING TREND TO VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

209
TPIO10 KGWC 270311
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN BAY OF BENGAL
B. 27/0231Z (31)
C. 17.6N/4
D. 88.6E/2
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T1.5/1.5/INIT OBS -26/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

49A/ PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN.

960
TPIO10 PGTW 270317
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE BAY OF BENGAL
B. 27/0230Z
C. 17.7N/5
D. 89.2E/9
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T1.5/1.5/INIT OBS (26/2330Z)
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC
49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN.

27/0230 UTC 18.3N 89.1E T1.0/1.0 96B -- Bay of Bengal

[Derek Ortt]

another problem


Maybe this one will not be called a deep depression when a well-defined banding eye is present. Time to start confusing everyone into thinking that Yemyin crossed over India, went into Pakistan, crossed back over India and into the Bay of Bengal

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Arabic Basin seems to be having a very
rough cyclone season this year.

[HurricaneRobert]

Times of India calls it Cyclone Yemyin

03B is Yemyin. With a death toll of 200+ this story has been widely dispersed. India's noncooperation here makes the RSMC program a joke.

[Aslkahuna]

IMD is not going to accept Pakistan naming the cyclone and it will be for strictly political reasons since the Indians hate the Pakistanis. Sad to say but politics rules the roost over there even with weather. Should be noted that the current BOB system is nearly in the same location and with the same developmental situation as 03B. It is a bit unusual to see the monsoon trough still over water this close to July but this goes along with the fact that it has not become established over the Philippines yet which is late (and also a characteristic of post Niño years).

Steve

[arlwx]

The latest update on the effects of 03B atop the previous storm:

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/070627/1/49hpg.html

[P.K.]

WTIN20 DEMS 270715


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
--------------------------------

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 27-06-2007
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED
AT 0600 UTC (.)

YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL NOW LIES OVER NORTH AND ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF
BENGAL AND IS WELL MARKED .IT IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A
DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.IN ITS ASSOCIATION BROKEN
INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH WEST AND
ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL .

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST BAY
OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA.

THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES THROUGH 27 DEG.
NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION.

MSG OVER ?????

[btangy]

03B (Yemyin) is still maintaining healthy structure despite making landfall over a day ago. Maybe enough inflow from the Arabian Sea and a large sensible heat flux at work over the hot desert keeping it going.

[Derek Ortt]

easterly shear remains fairly high over 96B (which would be a TD if it were in the Atlantic), which is only allowing slow development at the present time. However, if this moves under the upper ridge near the coast, this could explode very quickly

[chaupal]

IMD is not going to accept Pakistan naming the cyclone and it will be for strictly political reasons since the Indians hate the Pakistanis. Sad to say but politics rules the roost over there even with weather. Should be noted that the current BOB system is nearly in the same location and with the same developmental situation as 03B. It is a bit unusual to see the monsoon trough still over water this close to July but this goes along with the fact that it has not become established over the Philippines yet which is late (and also a characteristic of post Niño years).

Steve

Could it be that IMD just don't want to get in politics and just wanted Pakistanis handle this as it was in their area??
I wounder why Indians helped Pakistanis during the last earth quack and other natural disasters there if they hated them so much. May be you know the answer.

[Derek Ortt]

As the RSMC, the Indians are the official WMO agency for the area, so they by international agreements were required to name it correctly (unless there was some data I am unaware of showing the stormw eaker than the observations suggested). Internationally, the Indian products are used

[chaupal]

As the RSMC, the Indians are the official WMO agency for the area, so they by international agreements were required to name it correctly (unless there was some data I am unaware of showing the stormw eaker than the observations suggested). Internationally, the Indian products are used

Thanks for the answer Darek.

[Derek Ortt]

where are you guys getting the air force information. The interfaces, as usual, will not return anything even typing in the KGWC header

[Coredesat]

We've been getting the information from the WX-TROPL mailing list, and it can also be found on Twister:

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/station/KGWC/

[Chacor]

AFWA at T1.5, JTWC now at T2.0, and SSD at T1.5 - expect a TCFA soon.

[Chacor]

WTIO21 PGTW 280730
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.2N 86.7E TO 19.5N 85.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 280600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.4N 86.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 17.4N 86.5E, APPROXIMATELY
180 NM EAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
280555Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
A CONVERGENT BAND OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 280032Z QUIKSCAT PASS
AND A 280330Z ASCAT PASS SHOW CORE WINDS OF 25 KT TO 30 KT AND
STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE BAND SOUTHWEST OF
THE DISTURBANCE CENTER. SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM THE EAST COAST
OF INDIA INDICATE PRESSURE FALLS COMMENSURATE WITH CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AREA. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE SYSTEM HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS,
BUT A STRONG VWS GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM PERSISTS. AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO PRESERVE THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR
PATTERN AND FURTHER IMPROVE ALREADY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 290730Z.//
NNNN