TC 03B and 04B thread

Chacor · **Posted:** Sun Jun 17, 2007 10:17 am

From rare cyclones, to possibly two in a month? 94A has formed just off SE Oman.

P.K. · **Posted:** Sun Jun 17, 2007 10:52 am

As with Gonu which passed to MetArea IX this one is already in it (Central North Arabian Sea) using the coordinates from the SAB Dvorak estimate from this morning.

Quote:

WWPK20 OPKC 171037
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FOR MET AREA IX VALID FOR
24 HOURS COMMENCING 0900UTC DATED 17-06-2007 BY PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL
DEPARTMENT.

PART -I: MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER WEST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA

PART - II: NO ALERT MESSAGE

PART -III: FORECASTS:

SUB AREA NO.1 NORTH ARABIAN SEA

I. WIND : SE/SW’LY 10-15 KTS GUSTING 20KTS
II. WEATHER : PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HAZY MORNING.
III. VISIBILITY : MODERATE REDUCING TO POOR IN HAZE.
IV. STATE OF SEA : SLIGHT/MODERATE.

SUB AREA NO. 2 GULF OF OMAN

I. WIND : NE/SW’LY 10-15 KTS GUSTING 20KTS.

II. WEATHER : PARTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CHANCE OF
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM.
III. VISIBILITY : MODERATE REDUCING TO POOR IN RAIN.
IV. STATE OF SEA : SLIGHT/ MODERATE.

SUB AREA NO. 3 CENTRAL NORTH ARABIAN SEA (12ºN/55ºE, 12ºN/63ºE, 20°N/58°E,
20ºN/67ºE)

I. WIND : SW’LY 20-25KTS GUSTING 33KTS.
II WEATHER : CLOUDY WITH CHANCES OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORM

III. VISIBILITY : MODERATE REDUCING TO POOR IN RAIN
IV. STATE OF SEA : MODERATE/ROUGH OCC’NLY VERY ROUGH

SUB AREA NO. 4 GULF OF ADEN

I. WIND : W/SW'LY 20-25KTS GUSTING 33KTS.
II WEATHER : PARTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY WITH CHANCES OF
RAIN.
III. VISIBILITY : MODERATE REDUCING TO POOR IN RAIN
IV. STATE OF SEA : MODERATE/ROUGH OCC’NLY VERY ROUGH

Cryomaniac · **Posted:** Sun Jun 17, 2007 6:58 pm

If many more cyclones get close to Iran, they'll be conspiracy theories that the west is controlling the weather...

HURAKAN · **Posted:** Sun Jun 17, 2007 8:22 pm

Convection but no organization.

wxmann_91 · **Posted:** Sun Jun 17, 2007 11:01 pm

And the LLC says, "stop it, easterly shear! Your pwning my convection! Owwwwwwww!!!"

OK, I know that was cheesy

Chacor · **Posted:** Mon Jun 18, 2007 1:59 am

Rather monsoon-disturbance like, perhaps, with the high shear?

Coredesat · **Posted:** Mon Jun 18, 2007 5:30 am

Not this time.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · **Posted:** Mon Jun 18, 2007 5:48 am

That is a nice looking LLC. :double:

Chacor · **Posted:** Mon Jun 18, 2007 6:33 am

Still some very deep convection, although no organisation whatsoever and sheared badly from the LLCC:

While we were all admiring 94A, 95B popped up in the Bay of Bengal, stretching over India. No organisation here either:

Chacor · **Posted:** Mon Jun 18, 2007 9:22 am

101
TPIO10 PGTW 181235

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ARABIAN SEA

B. 18/1130Z

C. 20.4N/6

D. 62.2E/0

E. THREE/MET7

F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS (18/1130Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .20 ON LOG 10
SPIRAL FOR A DT OF 1.0. PT SUPPORTS. DBO DT.

TORREY

Looking better...

Up to 20/1007 from 15/1010 on NRL.

Chacor · **Posted:** Tue Jun 19, 2007 8:18 am

ABIO10, Indian Ocean outlook from JTWC:

Code:

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 
61.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 62.0E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FULLY-EXPOSED, QUASI-STATIONARY LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE OVERALL 
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR AND 20-30 KNOTS OF DIFFLUENT, EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. 
THEREFORE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED ABOUT 90NM SOUTHWEST OF THE 
CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.6N 90.0E, 
APPROXIMATELY 165 NM WEST OF THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR A 
DEVELOPING MID TO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ADDITIONALLY, 
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA SHOW 1.5 MB PRESSURE FALLS 
IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED 
BY DIFFLUENT FLOW, HOWEVER, A STRONG TROPICAL EASTERLY JET IS 
CONTRIBUTING TO 20-30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE 
DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

94A:

95B:

Chacor · **Posted:** Tue Jun 19, 2007 12:07 pm

Oops, poof!

WindRunner · **Posted:** Tue Jun 19, 2007 5:22 pm

94A is gone from NRL. No surprise after that little disappearing act . . . maybe the vis in a few hours will show that it at least still has a pretty little naked swirl for us to watch

That leaves 95B . . . and it still looks like garbage. No bueno, my friends . . .

Cryomaniac · **Posted:** Tue Jun 19, 2007 6:19 pm

Well that will keep any conspiracy nuts quiet for a while lol.

Chacor · **Posted:** Wed Jun 20, 2007 8:52 am

Upgraded to FAIR:

Code:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0N
90.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 89.E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST OF
THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS. A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS BECOME APPARENT ON RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WHILE THE LLCC WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED, IN THE
PAST THREE HOURS, CONVECTION HAS BEGUN DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE DISURBANCE. BASED ON AN OLDER QUIKSCAT
PASS AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS, THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LLCC. OBSERVATIONS FROM PORT BLAIR CONTINUE TO SHOW A 2.0 MB SLP
FALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS ON THE
ORDER OF 30 KTS OVER THE SYSTEM, WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE HELPING TO
FUEL DEEP CONVECTION.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

T1.0 from JTWC.

Chacor · **Posted:** Wed Jun 20, 2007 11:32 am

20/1430 UTC 12.9N 88.0E T1.5/1.5 95B -- Bay of Bengal

HURAKAN · **Posted:** Wed Jun 20, 2007 2:05 pm

Lots of convection but the overall organization remains fair.

P.K. · **Posted:** Wed Jun 20, 2007 2:14 pm

Quote:

FQIN01 DEMS 201800
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 12 HOURS.FROM 20/06/ 2007 1800 UTC 20 JUNE 2007
===============================================================
PART -I : NO STORM WARNING (.)

PART II : THE WELL MARK LOPAR OVER E C BAYNOW LIES OVER EC ADJ WC
BAY (.) SYTEM IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION (.)
THE OFF SHORE TROUGH AT SL FROM GUJ COAST TO LKDP AREA
PERSISTS (.)
WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA (VIII) (.)

PART III : FORECAST

ARB : A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG.N AND W OF 80 DEG.E
I) WIND : SW/W 20/25 KTS (.)
II) WEATHER : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III) VISIBILITY : POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA :ROUGH (.)

ARB : A2 : ARABIAN SEA N OF 10 DEG.N (.)
I) WIND :SW/W 25/30 KTS (.)
II) WEATHER : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III) VISIBILITY L: POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH (.)

BOB :A3:BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO 10 DEG.N AND E OF 80 DEG.E (.)
I) WIND :MAINLY SW-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II) WEATEHR : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III) VISIBILITY : POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH (.)

BOB A4 : BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG.N (.)
I) WIND : SW-LY 15/20 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO N OF LAT 14 DEG.N.(.)
II) WEATER : WIDESPREAD TO THE S OF 18 DEG.N.(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED(.)
III) VISIBILTY : POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA : SLIGHT TO MODERATE (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

Chacor · **Posted:** Thu Jun 21, 2007 2:43 am

762
TPIO10 PGTW 210613

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST OF INDIA

B. 21/0530Z

C. 15.6N/2

D. 85.2E/5

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/21HRS STT: D1.0/12HRS (21/0530Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .45 ON
LOG 10 SPIRAL FOR AN UNREP DT OF 2.5. DBO PT OF 2.0.

TORREY

Seems to be an error on NRL, showing 20 kts 999 mbar... :eek:

Chacor · **Posted:** Thu Jun 21, 2007 6:07 am

BOB 03/2007/01 Dated : 21st June, 2007

Subject: Depression over Bay of Bengal

Yesterday’s well marked low pressure area over eastcentral and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal concentrated into a depression and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 21st June, 2007 over westcentral Bay of Bengal near Lat.15.50N and Long 86.00E, about 430 kms east-southeast of Kakinada. The System is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross north Andhra Pradesh coast between Narsapur and Visakhapatnam by tomorrow, the 22nd afternoon.

Under its influence, widespread rains with scattered heavy to very heavy falls are likely over Andhra Pradesh, north coastal Tamilnadu & Puducherry during next 48 hrs. Isolated extremely heavy falls (> 25 cm) are also likely over central districts of coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during the same period.

Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph are likely along and off Andhra Pradesh and north Tamilnadu & Puducherry coasts during the same period.

Sea condition will be very rough. Fishermen of Andhra Pradesh and north Tamilnadu/Puducherry coasts are advised not to venture into the sea.
---------
WTIO21 PGTW 210730
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6N 85.8E TO 16.9N 80.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 210600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7N 85.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 15.7N 85.2E APPROXIMATELY
160NM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CENTER CIRCULATION (LLCC) OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 210016Z
QUIKSAT PASS SHOWS 30KT SURFACE WINDS AROUND THE LLCC. AN UPPER
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN INDIA IS INTRODUC-
ING MODERATE BUT DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LLCC
ALONG WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHING THE LLCC FROM THE EAST MAY INTRODUCE UNFAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE NEAR TO MEDIUM
TERM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. BASED
ON DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 220730Z.//
---------

NRL now saying 30kts 994 mbar.

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