BOB 03/2007/01 Dated : 21st June, 2007
Subject: Depression over Bay of Bengal
Yesterday’s well marked low pressure area over eastcentral and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal concentrated into a depression and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 21st June, 2007 over westcentral Bay of Bengal near Lat.15.50N and Long 86.00E, about 430 kms east-southeast of Kakinada. The System is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross north Andhra Pradesh coast between Narsapur and Visakhapatnam by tomorrow, the 22nd afternoon.
Under its influence, widespread rains with scattered heavy to very heavy falls are likely over Andhra Pradesh, north coastal Tamilnadu & Puducherry during next 48 hrs. Isolated extremely heavy falls (> 25 cm) are also likely over central districts of coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during the same period.
Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph are likely along and off Andhra Pradesh and north Tamilnadu & Puducherry coasts during the same period.
Sea condition will be very rough. Fishermen of Andhra Pradesh and north Tamilnadu/Puducherry coasts are advised not to venture into the sea.
WTIO21 PGTW 210730
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6N 85.8E TO 16.9N 80.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 210600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7N 85.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 15.7N 85.2E APPROXIMATELY
160NM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CENTER CIRCULATION (LLCC) OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 210016Z
QUIKSAT PASS SHOWS 30KT SURFACE WINDS AROUND THE LLCC. AN UPPER
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN INDIA IS INTRODUC-
ING MODERATE BUT DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LLCC
ALONG WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHING THE LLCC FROM THE EAST MAY INTRODUCE UNFAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE NEAR TO MEDIUM
TERM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
ON DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
NRL now saying 30kts 994 mbar.