Looking at LR IRI model produccts its showing below normal temps in the GOM and parts of the South ATL. Here is why as I heard Dr. Gray say this in his latest discussion.
Over the next few weeks we will have a -AO with great blocking over the poles and this will lead to an amplified pattern and with a Pacific trough deepening with strong jet streak on the west side of the trough it will make for nice omega sig. ridging in the Western US with sharp trough in the East. With the -NAO nice ridging over Greenland will lead to a North to SOuth orientation leading to ATL ridging with this ridging in place it will warm up the ocean temperatures at a good rate. However I do think the NAO will go + towards late march as the torugh swings out in the ATL with a Trough out west ridging over the East and with troughing over the ATL so right now were in a flip flop pattern. Ensembles show -AO going to neutral to positive around Mid march and thats most likely wrong as we check lr guidance it clearly shows will be in a -AO.
But this might be the last cold shot for most on the East and a huge warm up where sub zero readings wheree around Minnesota. As omega sig pulls east a s/w trough will create impressive WAA and I wouldn't be suprised to see temps well into the 60's out there to around 70 degree mark in some spots.
Warmer SST coming to the ATL
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Allexpert Mike
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Warmer SST coming to the ATL
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Rob-TheStormChaser
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