2024 EPAC Season

[DorkyMcDorkface]

EPS is starting to come alive next week. This coincides with the timeframe in which the MJO is expected to propagate into the region.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS hopping on board but I have my doubts.

[Kingarabian]

Latest GFS forms a Cat.2 SW of Mexico and moves it WNW.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS continues with development. Time frame moving closer.

12z GFS and CMC continue to show development in about 7 days. Could see a yellow circle soon.

[weeniepatrol]

06z GFS continues with development. Time frame moving closer.

12z GFS and CMC continue to show development in about 7 days. Could see a yellow circle soon.

Getting to that time of year. Particularly with this info from last weeks' MJO update:

[cycloneye]

GEFS is very bullish.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like a pretty decent monsoon trough to start the season. GFS and CMC show development within 5 days.

[MetroMike]

Experts have been downplaying the EPAC threat this year. Never under estimate it.
btw don't know why I received this thread.

[cycloneye]

From the NHC discussion: Some gale force winds out there.

[Kingarabian]

GFS/CMC/ICON continue to show something developing in 5 days.

Euro finally showed a weak TD in the previous run but is back to showing no development.

[skyline385]

STWO out for EPAC - 30% chance

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... WOEP.shtml

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131920
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1220 PM PDT Mon May 13 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss possible
development to the south of Mexico later this week.

South of the Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form along a trough several
hundred miles to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the middle
to latter portion of this week. Thereafter, some gradual development
of this system is possible as the low begins to move slowly to the
west-northwest, remaining south of the coast of Mexico through early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 Hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be
issued by 2 PM PDT Tuesday, or earlier if conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[DorkyMcDorkface]

GFS/CMC/ICON continue to show something developing in 5 days.

Euro finally showed a weak TD in the previous run but is back to showing no development.

Looks like it's back to showing (barely) a short lived TD. GFS on the other hand has been showing a rather strong hurricane for quite a few runs now. CMC is in between and basically splits the difference with a moderate-strong TS - I'm inclined to believe that will be the ultimate result.

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 AM PDT Tue May 14 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss possible
development to the south of Mexico later this week.

1. South of the Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form along a trough several
hundred miles to the south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
by the middle to latter portion of this week. Thereafter, some
gradual development of this system is possible as the low moves
slowly to the west-northwest, remaining south of the coast of Mexico
through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.



The next Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 5 AM PDT
Wednesday.

Forecaster Pasch/Hagen

[AnnularCane]

Tomorrow the season begins along with the regular TWOs, which means we will be in the home stretch for the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

EPAC season begins today. The area that may form in the next few days is still at 30% in 7 days.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Major adjustment on today's 12z GFS run regarding the 0/30. More in line with the other guidance now.

[Teban54]

Major adjustment on today's 12z GFS run regarding the 0/30. More in line with the other guidance now.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b5b451f39162d88652bb562ccd86cd4fbc0dfd216ce5de67afd998197517c257.gif

In other words, GFS being GFS

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%.

South of the Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles to
the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec within the next couple of days.
Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend while the system moves
slowly to the west-northwest or northwest, remaining south of the
coast of Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/FerragamoWx/status/1790899585805603192

[Kingarabian]

GFS shows development starting in about 72 hours.