2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[SFLcane]

Hope you guys are ready for what’s coming in a few months!

 https://x.com/andyhazelton/status/1764985221332468015

[cycloneye]

170% of normal ACE is a strong number.



 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1764987041790546207




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1764987044114124952

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

170% of normal ACE is a strong number.

https://i.imgur.com/WZvY7jn.jpeg

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1764987041790546207

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1764987044114124952

0-7 to 1.7 is the 1-SD range.

[KirbyDude25]

170% of normal ACE is a strong number.

https://i.imgur.com/WZvY7jn.jpeg

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1764987041790546207

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1764987044114124952

0-7 to 1.7 is the 1-SD range.

To me, it looks like 1.7 is the mean and the standard deviation is 0.7, meaning that the range would be 1.0 to 2.4 times the average ACE for the basin during that range of months. I don't know the exact ACE values that would correspond to (remember that this is compared to the average April-September ACE, not June-November), but it definitely suggests a hyperactive season.

[cycloneye]

170% of normal ACE is a strong number.

https://i.imgur.com/WZvY7jn.jpeg

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1764987041790546207

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1764987044114124952

0-7 to 1.7 is the 1-SD range.

To me, it looks like 1.7 is the mean and the standard deviation is 0.7, meaning that the range would be 1.0 to 2.4 times the average ACE for the basin during that range of months. I don't know the exact ACE values that would correspond to (remember that this is compared to the average April-September ACE, not June-November), but it definitely suggests a hyperactive season.

Derek says 200+.

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1765008788870820281

[CyclonicFury]

The ECMWF hurricane forecast (which only runs through September) is the highest-ever by the model. 17.4 tropical storms, 8.7 hurricanes, 170% of normal ACE and that doesn't even include October and November, which could be very busy this year.

[aspen]

Hope you guys are ready for what’s coming in a few months!

 https://x.com/andyhazelton/status/1764985221332468015

Does the Euro still have a ridge bias? I won’t trust any ridge forecast at this point.

All the other indicators, though…

[Teban54]

Steering looks like a blend of 2004 and 2005... Not good.
 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1765011736040493287

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1765036520552214706




At this rate 2024 may be the best bet for a pre Aug 20th major hurricane in quite a while.

[Teban54]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1765036520552214706

At this rate 2024 may be the best bet for a pre Aug 20th major hurricane in quite a while.

How was the model showing such an inactive 2020? Not to mention a dry 2021, especially in the MDR and Bay of Campeche, when that year had two MDR MH long-trackers and a rare MH in the BoC...

[TheAustinMan]

To me, it looks like 1.7 is the mean and the standard deviation is 0.7, meaning that the range would be 1.0 to 2.4 times the average ACE for the basin during that range of months. I don't know the exact ACE values that would correspond to (remember that this is compared to the average April-September ACE, not June-November), but it definitely suggests a hyperactive season.

I'm not sure if the climatology in the ECMWF forecast refers to model climatology or actual climatology. If we assume actual climatology, between 1993-2022 (2023 has not been finalized), the mean April-September ACE for the Atlantic was 98.2, so a value of 1.7 ± 0.7 would imply an April-September ACE of 167 ± 69, or 98 to 236.

The all-time record for April-September ACE is 224.4, set in 1933, closely followed by 220.8 (set in 2004) and 204.4 (set in 2017). These are the only three seasons which exceeded 200 ACE before October. The ECMWF mean forecast value of 167 is closest to 1950 (157.0) and 2005 (173.5).

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1765059284352602544

[Teban54]

To me, it looks like 1.7 is the mean and the standard deviation is 0.7, meaning that the range would be 1.0 to 2.4 times the average ACE for the basin during that range of months. I don't know the exact ACE values that would correspond to (remember that this is compared to the average April-September ACE, not June-November), but it definitely suggests a hyperactive season.

I'm not sure if the climatology in the ECMWF forecast refers to model climatology or actual climatology. If we assume actual climatology, between 1993-2022 (2023 has not been finalized), the mean April-September ACE for the Atlantic was 98.2, so a value of 1.7 ± 0.7 would imply an April-September ACE of 167 ± 69, or 98 to 236.

The all-time record for April-September ACE is 224.4, set in 1933, closely followed by 220.8 (set in 2004) and 204.4 (set in 2017). These are the only three seasons which exceeded 200 ACE before October. The ECMWF mean forecast value of 167 is closest to 1950 (157.0) and 2005 (173.5).

This largely agrees with what Phil said here:
 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1765062864937656806

[cycloneye]

Looking at possible analogs.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1765089119934517707

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1765036520552214706

At this rate 2024 may be the best bet for a pre Aug 20th major hurricane in quite a while.

I'd say a possibility of a pre July 1 major hurricane

[DioBrando]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1765036520552214706

At this rate 2024 may be the best bet for a pre Aug 20th major hurricane in quite a while.

I'd say a possibility of a pre July 1 major hurricane

Maybe a spring MH

[Hurricane2022]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1765036520552214706

At this rate 2024 may be the best bet for a pre Aug 20th major hurricane in quite a while.

I'd say a possibility of a pre July 1 major hurricane

Maybe a spring MH

This is something that should only happen around 2045 - 2050 but I wouldn't be very very surprised if a strong hurricane (90 mph+) were to occur in a early/mid May month after the next El Niño, if the Atlantic waters continued this hellish heating after this future event.

[hurricanetrack]

I know y'all know but here is my latest video discussion which includes a new project announcement to go along with our highly-anticipated hurricane season.



Link: https://youtu.be/zfGAeuj4IXI

[JetFuel_SE]

I know y'all know but here is my latest video discussion which includes a new project announcement to go along with our highly-anticipated hurricane season.

https://youtu.be/zfGAeuj4IXI

Great video as usual.

[wxman57]

I've often said that you could boil the water in the tropics and that wouldn't necessarily generate more hurricanes. Water temperature can lead to stronger hurricanes, given a favorable environment, but it won't make more hurricanes. That said, warm water combined with developing El Nino and a predicted +NAO may mean that the Caribbean may finally open up to long-tracked hurricanes moving through. Watch out in PR, Luis. Significantly increased risk to the islands of the northern Caribbean, Bahamas, and Florida. Also an increased risk all along the Gulf Coast and SE U.S. Coast through Virginia.