DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Cpv17 wrote:aspen wrote:We’re definitely going to have a break sometime within the mid-July to mid-August time frame. We’ve had one for the last three seasons in a row. I won’t be surprised if this season is yet another instance of enhanced activity in late June/early July followed by a quiet period until around Bell Ringing Day.
Maybe it’s just me but it seems like July is always dead.
July on average is not a very active month. You'll get occasional years with some decent July activity (not just 2005, that was an extreme anomaly) but typically you won't see much. Also I believe that is the month when SAL outbreaks are at their most potent as well, so that's also a factor.
Early August is often an extension of late July, hence why in most seasons we don't see activity pick up until the third week or so of August.
What's interesting is that at least since 2019, I recall every season having a bunch of murmur that it was going to produce a major hurricane in June/July (yes, that included Barry as some models had it exploding over the Gulf
).
In 2020, it was Hanna and Gonzalo. In 2021, it was Elsa. In 2022, it was Bonnie. And in 2023, it was Bret. Really shows you how bizarre of an event 2005 was. The only years that really came close to that was 1996 (Cat 3 open ocean hurricane), and even then, seasons like 2010 and 1933 spawned high-end Cat 2s in mid-summer and not major hurricanes.
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
