Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 95L)
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Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
12z eps for the atlantic catches my eye, ensemble with the lowest mslp is 898 mb...
This one with closeup is filtered with only strong ensembles
This one with closeup is filtered with only strong ensembles
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: RE: Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
Its consistently inconsistent, gfs runs must be taken with a very cynical view until further notice which could be the rest of the season, beware of any solution from the gfs beyond 48 hrsOuterBanker wrote:The GFS is really wacko this year. 06 z had a monster Ga to NC, 12z doesn't even develop anywhere. After this season it needs to enter rehab. I have never seen it perform as badly as this year in the long term forecast.
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- Spacecoast
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Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
IcyTundra wrote:SFLcane wrote:Did the 12z Eps slip west from 00z?
Yes slightly west of 00Z
12z EPS vs 0z EPS. (black sq is 12z Operational @240
12 EPS Probabilities @ 264Hrs
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- toad strangler
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Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
I’d wait until this gets all the way into the central tropical Atlantic minimum before even glancing at mid range 500mb set up. For now, looks like we have a probable peak season MDR long tracker. What was that about El Niño? lol
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Re: RE: Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
jlauderdal wrote:Its consistently inconsistent, gfs runs must be taken with a very cynical view until further notice which could be the rest of the season, beware of any solution from the gfs beyond 48 hrsOuterBanker wrote:The GFS is really wacko this year. 06 z had a monster Ga to NC, 12z doesn't even develop anywhere. After this season it needs to enter rehab. I have never seen it perform as badly as this year in the long term forecast.
Sheesh. And here I was every year trying to use its long-range forecasts of springtime severe weather potential to book my chasecations. No wonder it took me 10 years of trying to see a significant tornado!
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Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
AutoPenalti wrote:SFLcane wrote:Did the 12z Eps slip west from 00z?
Slightly.
https://i.imgur.com/Fkkywqb.gif
I count 27 members (53%) with a H. That is more than the 0Z and is as high as any EPS I can recall for any as yet to develop system in the MDR this season to date. So, at a minimum, this looks likely to be a big ACE producer as well as one that will probably give us lots of pretty satellite pics to view.
Last edited by LarryWx on Fri Sep 01, 2023 5:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
A number of ensembles bend a strong hurricane back towards the WNW. Would Irma be a possible good analog?
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- ScottNAtlanta
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Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
My experience is when the Euro locks on to something, something will generally develop. The key to what this does in the future rests a lot on what Idalia ends up doing. If it is still roaming around then it has a better chance to go out. If it goes out, then high pressure builds back in and the feature cant go out. Too early to know where, but I am getting pretty confident something will be out there
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Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
Ianswfl wrote:A number of ensembles bend a strong hurricane back towards the WNW. Would Irma be a possible good analog?
I'd say no
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Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
In the water now. Looks like invest tag may not be far away. South of 10N a turning.
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Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
South of 10n thats not good may not find a weakness till the islands.
Model runs with the invest will be interesting.
Model runs with the invest will be interesting.
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Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
Stratton23 wrote:The SE coast needs to watch this, definitely not a 100% guarantee this will recurve
i'd give it about 90% chance of recurve right now
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- SFLcane
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Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
mantis83 wrote:Stratton23 wrote:The SE coast needs to watch this, definitely not a 100% guarantee this will recurve
i'd give it about 90% chance of recurve right now
Come on now… let’s not make model predictions 10 days out lots can change and people do live in the islands like our very own “ Luis “. Lots can and will change
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- Emmett_Brown
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Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
18Z GFS keeps it far south through hour 102, still just under 10N
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Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
SFLcane wrote:mantis83 wrote:Stratton23 wrote:The SE coast needs to watch this, definitely not a 100% guarantee this will recurve
i'd give it about 90% chance of recurve right now
Come on now… let’s not make model predictions 10 days out lots can change and people do live in the islands like our very own “ Luis “. Lots can and will change
Only about 44 million people live in the Caribbean. It certainly grinds my gears when I read post that blatently disregards any storm that looks like it won't hit USA, but plows through the Caribbean Islands.
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- ScottNAtlanta
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Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
Looks like most models start hitting the gas on development right as it gets to 50w
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
10 days out, anything is possible. I know models have improved in 15 years, but a 5 day forecast for a W Gulf hurricane was a SEUSA threat. 500 mb heights on Euro op, generally supported by ensembles, doesn't preclude a landfall as far W as Gulf Florida even if individual members don't support that. A fish may be most likely, but nothing is guaranteed, other than models agree on TCG.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
One thing I do find interesting is assuming some of these ensemble runs are indeed correct, then this system will be going through a Hebert Box at a formidable strength. I understand that Hebert Boxes aren't exactly foolproof, but there's a reason why they have been designated in the first place....
I will also add that this isn't exactly a scenario like Sam, as that occurred at the end of September when persistent troughs were around.
I will also add that this isn't exactly a scenario like Sam, as that occurred at the end of September when persistent troughs were around.
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Re: Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa
Well Well well, what do we have here? Cabo Verde long tracker? I’m excited to see what this storm is capable of(intensity wise). Hopefully we get a recurve before it hits the islands. We need a fish storm, not a shark storm. (Get it, cuz shark storms would be ocean storms that hit islands)
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