Tropical Wave in the SE GOMEX (Is Invest 91L)

[Cpv17]

0z icon

https://i.imgur.com/0FcfiS5.png

San Antonio Bay landfall here on the ICON. I like that location. I would probably get some decent rains from that.

[REDHurricane]

Call me crazy, but I have just a get feeling this wave is going to surprise us, Ive seen this story before, the gulf can be very very tricky sometimes, maybe it throws a curveball with this one

Despite the models backing off on development for now, I'm still inclined to agree that this is the one everyone should be watching in the next 3-5 days. Both GFS and ECMWF show this wave entering the hot tub Gulf in 2-3 days and have it parked right under a big ol' ULAC...

00z GFS +72 hours



18z ECMWF +72 hours



And just for fun, here's a reminder of the SSTs this system will have to work with over the span of around 60 hours or so:


So yeah, I'm definitely not going to call you crazy yet

[TomballEd]

Euro total rain not that much different, or not significant drought relief for Houston and points N and W like Austin or College Station,

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 806&fh=192

[Nimbus]

Call me crazy, but I have just a get feeling this wave is going to surprise us, Ive seen this story before, the gulf can be very very tricky sometimes, maybe it throws a curveball with this one

Despite the models backing off on development for now, I'm still inclined to agree that this is the one everyone should be watching in the next 3-5 days. Both GFS and ECMWF show this wave entering the hot tub Gulf in 2-3 days and have it parked right under a big ol' ULAC...

00z GFS +72 hours
https://i.ibb.co/mFMjPb7/gfs-z850-vort-atl-13.png
https://i.ibb.co/VYbdf2s/gfs-shear-atl-13.png

18z ECMWF +72 hours
https://i.ibb.co/hDyC7TT/ecmwf-z850-vort-atl-25.png
https://i.ibb.co/rcrB0XS/ecmwf-shear-atl-25.png

And just for fun, here's a reminder of the SSTs this system will have to work with over the span of around 60 hours or so:
https://i.ibb.co/WyDJHG0/gulfmex-c.gif

So yeah, I'm definitely not going to call you crazy yet

I see the dry shear circulation from the ULL parked at the Tex/Mex border possibly being an issue.
Will be watching the models, if the system closes off in the eastern gulf as depicted by Sunday or Monday it could fill and moisten that low before landfall.

Need to see a few runs to get a feel for the evolution there, last wave that entered the gulf was sheared out and lost its surface pressure gradient. Also that wave was sharper with a clear axis and apex in the Bahamas.

So Im just watching buoys for surface pressure drop below 29.90 for now.

[capNstorms]

Moisture moving into SETX, two foggy mornings in a row!

[TomballEd]

81F with a 78F dewpoint was producing low clouds this morning. I assume mixing will drop the dewpoints, maybe down to 70F

How do I post a picture? I didn't quite get the thing from 1990s websites to work for me.

About the wave, I suspect people's hopes for a 5 inch plus rainfall TD or TS aren't happening. 6Z GFS and 0Z rain totals for the wave, the good stuff, 2 or 4 inches, is down towards the coastal bend and Houston and the hire fire danger counties N of Houston look to get a quarter to a half. Better than nothing, of course.

I'd post an image here, but the link: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_57.png

[wxman57]

I'm thinking 70% chance NHC will call it a TD Monday night/Tuesday morning as it approaches the TX coast. All it would take will be one squall with a 35kt wind by recon to call it a TS. However, this does not appear to have a favorable environment that could lead to a strong TS. Kind of like Arlene earlier this year. It will cause winds 25-30 kts offshore and rough seas Mon/Tue as it passes. No wind issue into Texas, only beneficial rainfall. Unfortunately, Houston to Beaumont and southern LA parishes may not get much rain if it moves ashore as far south as Corpus Christi or near Matagorda. I'm hoping it moves ashore farther north. Not a drop of rain here since July 3. My oak tree is shedding its leaves.

[tolakram]

Looks like a weak sloppy system into SW Texas. All models near the same location now.









I think the GFS has the best prediction of rainfall, since the euro wants to develop this system after landfall.

[Wampadawg]

So it appears the door slams shut on Houston!
For the love of the Almighty when will we catch a break

[Cpv17]

So it appears the door slams shut on Houston!
For the love of the Almighty when will we catch a break

I wouldn’t really say that. If it comes in north of Rockport, the Houston area should get something. Plus the models are slowly trending this to come in as a more organized system which should have more rain associated with it.

[Cpv17]

Most members from the 0z EPS take this towards the mid TX coast. I’d say Corpus Christi to Matagorda has the best chance right now.

[wxman57]

So it appears the door slams shut on Houston!
For the love of the Almighty when will we catch a break

I wouldn’t really say that. If it comes in north of Rockport, the Houston area should get something. Plus the models are slowly trending this to come in as a more organized system which should have more rain associated with it.

A more organized system may have more concentrated squalls, decreasing our rain chances in Houston. We want a wide open big tropical wave, not a small TD/TS.

[Into The Fog]

Galveston will welcome any amount we may get out of this!

[Wampadawg]

So it appears the door slams shut on Houston!
For the love of the Almighty when will we catch a break

I wouldn’t really say that. If it comes in north of Rockport, the Houston area should get something. Plus the models are slowly trending this to come in as a more organized system which should have more rain associated with it.

A more organized system may have more concentrated squalls, decreasing our rain chances in Houston. We want a wide open big tropical wave, not a small TD/TS.

Come on big sloppy wave!!

[capNstorms]

Not much of a shift in the ECENS forecast tracks, seems to have it's mind set on mid TX landfall. Look out for RI and brown ocean effect with this one.

[Steve]

Not buying the weak storm models, this one might be concerning for TX and LA... rapid intensification, Maria, Harvey. Not writing this one off due to models going bipolar

The limiting factor will be dry air. But still needs watching.

Progged forward speed in my opinion is the main limiting factor.

[Tireman4]

I am not a professional met, I am just Wxman 57's gardener, but I would think with the rising PWATS (2.0 and above), the unstableness from the Gulf and the tropical training effect, this could be widespread in a large area. That being said, I do think Mr. 57 is right on the money. A more concentrated system, the less the chances of widespread rainfall.

[Craters]

So it appears the door slams shut on Houston!
For the love of the Almighty when will we catch a break

I wouldn’t really say that. If it comes in north of Rockport, the Houston area should get something. Plus the models are slowly trending this to come in as a more organized system which should have more rain associated with it.

A more organized system may have more concentrated squalls, decreasing our rain chances in Houston. We want a wide open big tropical wave, not a small TD/TS.

I wish I could upvote this one a couple dozen times...

[Craters]

Not much of a shift in the ECENS forecast tracks, seems to have it's mind set on mid TX landfall. Look out for RI and brown ocean effect with this one.

Where's the moisture from the brown ocean going to come from, though? Most of Texas is doing its best desert impersonation right about now...

[lrak]

Hope Corpus get a little rain and some swell. Been dry and flat for months.