Tropical Wave in the SE GOMEX (Is Invest 91L)

[Blown Away]

I'm thinking between Corpus and Brownsville is the most likely area for landfall. They need the rain just as much as we do just sucks that we probably won't get much.

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Ice tundra:
If by chance it lands closer to Corpus, wouldn't Galveston be on the dirty side?

Galveston will be on the "death ridge" side. "No soup (rain) for you!"

NHC will probably be up to 60% by sunrise and 70% tomorrow afternoon/evening. I'm thinking they'll go 80% or higher Sunday. Little doubt it will be at least a depression before it moves inland into lower TX coast. I don't expect any rain as far north a Houston. Maybe just a teaser shower. We'll start advisories tomorrow afternoon after I look at 12Z guidance. Lots of calls scheduled already for Hilary & what will be 90L soon.

Hope this heavy tropical rain SFL is getting from this TW today makes its way to TX…

[Wampadawg]

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Ice tundra:
If by chance it lands closer to Corpus, wouldn't Galveston be on the dirty side?

Galveston will be on the "death ridge" side. "No soup (rain) for you!"

NHC will probably be up to 60% by sunrise and 70% tomorrow afternoon/evening. I'm thinking they'll go 80% or higher Sunday. Little doubt it will be at least a depression before it moves inland into lower TX coast. I don't expect any rain as far north a Houston. Maybe just a teaser shower. We'll start advisories tomorrow afternoon after I look at 12Z guidance. Lots of calls scheduled already for Hilary & what will be 90L soon.

Hope this heavy tropical rain SFL is getting from this TW today makes its way to TX…

Sooner or later the death ridge needs to move and the models will dangle more hope before snatching it away but a pitty taste would be welcomed to the next glimmer of hope comes

[BobHarlem]

[jlauderdal]

Same old story, more rain SE Florida.

[tropicwatch]

Starting to see some lower-level vorticity 925mb level. Will be interesting to watch as the day progresses for increasing vorticity.

[Nimbus]

Starting to see some lower-level vorticity 925mb level. Will be interesting to watch as the day progresses for increasing vorticity.

I see the upper/mid level circulation back over Cuba.
Bahamas convection is hiding the 925 lower level features but surface wave may be sharpening up a little there.
I can wait for the Key West buoy readings which give a pretty good profile 1940's style.

[cycloneye]

Recon for Monday afternoon. This means it will be invest 91L soon.

POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 25.5N 90.5W FOR 21/1800Z.

[Wampadawg]

What is everyone’s take on RGEM model it shows a little further north?

[Stratton23]

It depends on where the system consolidates

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located near the northwestern and
central Bahamas is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early
next week, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form.
Some slow development of this system is possible thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form as it moves westward and approaches
the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Jr0d]

Not looking like its organizing much at all despite the persistent convection. I have yet to get any rain in Key West from this.

CAPE was around 900 this morning's weather balloon which is a bit low, last weekend it was over 3000.

I was thinking we might get a closed low Sunday near the Keys, for this to happen it will really have to get its act together. There is an ULL south of Cuba that likely is inhibiting development also.

While we will almost certainly get some rain later tonight, with the CAPE being so low they likely will not be too strong, unlike last Saturday.

Hopefully this stretches out before it gets to Texas for better drought relief.

[Steve]

What is everyone’s take on RGEM model it shows a little further north?

Still minimal rainfall except between Nueces and Cameron Counties. We got 3 days for that to modify if…

[Nimbus]

Not looking like its organizing much at all despite the persistent convection. I have yet to get any rain in Key West from this.

CAPE was around 900 this morning's weather balloon which is a bit low, last weekend it was over 3000.

I was thinking we might get a closed low Sunday near the Keys, for this to happen it will really have to get its act together. There is an ULL south of Cuba that likely is inhibiting development also.

While we will almost certainly get some rain later tonight, with the CAPE being so low they likely will not be too strong, unlike last Saturday.

Hopefully this stretches out before it gets to Texas for better drought relief.

The mid level center just south of Cuba is close enough to the surface that its kicking up some convection.
Its an interesting system to watch as it may transition to a warm core system.
There were a few low level clouds further north in the Bahamas that suggested the apex of the surface wave was sharpening there.
We could even get two low level centers that Fugiwara and bring rain to a wider area of the coastline.

''You can´t see the eyes of the Demon until him come calling''

[REDHurricane]

Possibly some increased mid/upper-level vorticity?



GFS appears to see it too:

[IcyTundra]

This will probably be an invest when it enters the gulf tomorrow.

[jaguars_22]

South of homestead Florida looks suspicious… may wrap up

[SFLcane]

This has been a non issue precip wise for Florida the wave actually stayed a bit further south then anticipated.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located over the Florida peninsula is
expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week, where a
broad area of low pressure is expected to form. Some slow
development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form as it moves westward and approaches the
western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[ouragans]

Will there be an Invest inland over SoFla?

[Nimbus]

Key west buoy briefly dipped below 29.90 this afternoon should see the lowest surface pressure tomorrow maybe 1011 mb?

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EDT