2023 TCR's

[Hurricane2022]

So far 6 reports are out for the North Atlantic storms and 4 for the EPAC ones. Clearly, the pace of reports is picking up more faster.

https://i.imgur.com/K0eGfZO.jpg

The 5 TCRs I'm most excited to see and what changes I'd like to see are:

E PAC
Jova: 140 kt --> 150 - 155 kt
Dora: 125 kt --> 130 - 140 kt (unlikely, assuming NHC and CPHC will always rely on satellite estimates, which in this case probably never exceeded 120 - 125 kt)
Otis: 145 kt --> 150 kt (although I think 145 or 150 kt doesn't make much of a difference either)

N ATL
Tammy: 90 kt -> 100 kt
José: 50 kt --> 65 kt (also unlikely, as the NHC rarely increases the intensity of a storm by 10 - 15 kt)

[Hurricane2022]

TS Rina is out
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL182023_Rina.pdf

[cycloneye]

TD Twelve-E is up.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=123462

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Gert and Hurricane Adrian are up.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 3#p3027883

[aspen]

Neither Adrian nor Don received any intensity upgrades, even though both were likely 5-10 kt stronger but underestimated by poor ADT eye placement. I’m guessing the odds of Jova getting upgraded to 145-150 kt are nonexistent now.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Kenneth is up.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP132023_Kenneth.pdf

[galaxy401]

Jose and Nigel have been published.

Jose: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112023_Jose.pdf

Nigel: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL152023_Nigel.pdf

They raised Jose's peak intensity to 55 kts. Not surprised since it was such a tiny storm. I think that's the first revision so far this postseason.

[MarioProtVI]

Jose and Nigel have been published.

Jose: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112023_Jose.pdf

Nigel: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL152023_Nigel.pdf

They raised Jose's peak intensity to 55 kts. Not surprised since it was such a tiny storm. I think that's the first revision so far this postseason.

Should’ve been raised to 65 kt. They claim it’s accuracy is still being evaluated which is undermined by the fact JTWC seems to be using it at large lately in high end TCs (see Mocha from earlier this year). 65 kt would’ve made much more sense with the mid level eye, tiny size and impressive microwave imagery.

[Landy]

Jose and Nigel have been published.

Jose: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112023_Jose.pdf

Nigel: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL152023_Nigel.pdf

They raised Jose's peak intensity to 55 kts. Not surprised since it was such a tiny storm. I think that's the first revision so far this postseason.

Should’ve been raised to 65 kt. They claim it’s accuracy is still being evaluated which is undermined by the fact JTWC seems to be using it at large lately in high end TCs (see Mocha from earlier this year). 65 kt would’ve made much more sense with the mid level eye, tiny size and impressive microwave imagery.

SAR was used in conjunction with other intensity estimates that had similar values re: Mocha. Simply not the case with Jose.

[aspen]

Jose and Nigel have been published.

Jose: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112023_Jose.pdf

Nigel: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL152023_Nigel.pdf

They raised Jose's peak intensity to 55 kts. Not surprised since it was such a tiny storm. I think that's the first revision so far this postseason.

Should’ve been raised to 65 kt. They claim it’s accuracy is still being evaluated which is undermined by the fact JTWC seems to be using it at large lately in high end TCs (see Mocha from earlier this year). 65 kt would’ve made much more sense with the mid level eye, tiny size and impressive microwave imagery.

The NHC is very hesitant to upgrade anything in post-season, and if they don’t have direct evidence of a higher intensity (ADT, SAR, recon, radar, etc), they won’t upgrade. But since ADT sucked this year, that skews a bunch of storms.

ADT really needs to get fixed. I don’t understand how it could be so bad with even normal-sized eyes.

[Hurricanehink]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142023_Margot.pdf

Margot was released - pressure down 1 mbar

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Max.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP162023_Max.pdf

[galaxy401]

Max was raised to just under hurricane intensity. They didn't rule out the possibility it briefly reached hurricane intensity at landfall.

[Hurricane2022]

TS Ramon
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP202023_Ramon.pdf

Hurricane Beatriz
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP022023_Beatriz.pdf

[DioBrando]

Max was raised to just under hurricane intensity. They didn't rule out the possibility it briefly reached hurricane intensity at landfall.

Which do you think might get significant upgrades

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Katia is up

[galaxy401]

Harold was released too. Intensity raised to 50 kts at landfall.

[DioBrando]

Harold was released too. Intensity raised to 50 kts at landfall.

when might Idalia and Otis come out

[ljmac75]

Harold was released too. Intensity raised to 50 kts at landfall.

when might Idalia and Otis come out

There's no way for any of us to know an exact date, but in previous years (with the notable exception of 2020), reports for hurricanes hitting the US seem to come out mainly from mid February to early April. Reports for major hurricanes have been coming out later in the past few years (Ian, Michael, and Ida all had reports that came out in April) but Idalia's impact was relatively minor for a major hurricane in the US so it might come out relatively early. I have no idea how long Otis might take. The report for Patricia, which occurred around the same time of year and shares some similarities actually came out in early February of 2016, but Patricia did not hit near a major city, unlike Otis.

Also, Jova is up: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP112023_Jova.pdf

[Hurricane2022]

Harold was released too. Intensity raised to 50 kts at landfall.

when might Idalia and Otis come out

There's no way for any of us to know an exact date, but in previous years (with the notable exception of 2020), reports for hurricanes hitting the US seem to come out mainly from mid February to early April. Reports for major hurricanes have been coming out later in the past few years (Ian, Michael, and Ida all had reports that came out in April) but Idalia's impact was relatively minor for a major hurricane in the US so it might come out relatively early. I have no idea how long Otis might take. The report for Patricia, which occurred around the same time of year and shares some similarities actually came out in early February of 2016, but Patricia did not hit near a major city, unlike Otis.

Also, Jova is up: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP112023_Jova.pdf

Of course, no significant upgrade

...and 14E is up as well.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP142 ... teen-E.pdf