2023 Cyclone Retirement (Poll Included at Top) Dora / Otis retired

[ljmac75]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1770511603865211243

On the Gulf Coast there's Bret, Idalia, and Zeta (if you even count that). On the East Coast, I don't think there's any major landfalling hurricanes that weren't retired, but Helene (1958) and Emily (1993) are both considered category 3 impacts to North Carolina and were not retired.

[HurricaneRyan]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1770511603865211243

On the Gulf Coast there's Bret, Idalia, and Zeta (if you even count that). On the East Coast, I don't think there's any major landfalling hurricanes that weren't retired, but Helene (1958) and Emily (1993) are both considered category 3 impacts to North Carolina and were not retired.

Diana 1984 as well.

[ljmac75]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1770511603865211243

On the Gulf Coast there's Bret, Idalia, and Zeta (if you even count that). On the East Coast, I don't think there's any major landfalling hurricanes that weren't retired, but Helene (1958) and Emily (1993) are both considered category 3 impacts to North Carolina and were not retired.

Diana 1984 as well.

Diana is actually listed as "only" bringing 95 kt winds to NC, though it does seem like it should be higher. Bonnie in 1998 is another case of a borderline 3 impact while offshore, North Carolina is full of them.

[ncforecaster89]

On the Gulf Coast there's Bret, Idalia, and Zeta (if you even count that). On the East Coast, I don't think there's any major landfalling hurricanes that weren't retired, but Helene (1958) and Emily (1993) are both considered category 3 impacts to North Carolina and were not retired.

Diana 1984 as well.

Diana is actually listed as "only" bringing 95 kt winds to NC, though it does seem like it should be higher. Bonnie in 1998 is another case of a borderline 3 impact while offshore, North Carolina is full of them.

The NHC set the intensity estimate at 95 kt based specifically on a 100 kt one-minute wind observation, at Oak Island, NC, from an anemometer situated at 18 m elevation. This corresponds precisely to their 95 kt wind estimate at 10 m.

Given it’s virtually impossible for a single observation point and anemometer to be positioned just so perfectly to capture the absolute peak wind contained anywhere within the eyewall, it stands to reason that the MSW was likely at least 100 kt (5 kt greater) than that observation…constituting a legitimate 100 kt/Cat 3 MH strike.

[ljmac75]

I have two things from the WMO meeting files that I think are relevant to the discussions here. First of all, here is a presentation given on climate change and Atlantic hurricanes. It covers most of the ground USTropics posted about but it's less technical.

Here is a report from the CPHC on Hurricane Dora and the Hawaiian wildfires. Maybe the live version of the presentation went into more detail, but this one doesn't exactly explain how much and in what ways Dora contributed to the fires. It does include a slide explaining why the name was suggested for retirement, and it seems to have come from the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency and the governor's office.

[USTropics]

I have two things from the WMO meeting files that I think are relevant to the discussions here. First of all, here is a presentation given on climate change and Atlantic hurricanes. It covers most of the ground USTropics posted about but it's less technical.

Here is a report from the CPHC on Hurricane Dora and the Hawaiian wildfires. Maybe the live version of the presentation went into more detail, but this one doesn't exactly explain how much and in what ways Dora contributed to the fires. It does include a slide explaining why the name was suggested for retirement, and it seems to have come from the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency and the governor's office.

From a synoptics standpoint, it has to do with pressure gradient force (PGF) between the high pressure located to the north of Hawaii and the low pressure associated with Dora. While Dora did not directly impact Hawaii as the cyclone passed to the south, it enhanced the PGF over Hawaii and advected cyclonic vorticity (and more importantly, no moisture):


This enhances the surface wind speed over Hawaii, which resulted in the fanning of the wildfires:


To what degree this would have occurred if Dora was not present is uncertain, and other contributions (like a 3rd year La Nina enhancing drought conditions) also played a pivotal role.

[zzzh]

I have two things from the WMO meeting files that I think are relevant to the discussions here. First of all, here is a presentation given on climate change and Atlantic hurricanes. It covers most of the ground USTropics posted about but it's less technical.

Here is a report from the CPHC on Hurricane Dora and the Hawaiian wildfires. Maybe the live version of the presentation went into more detail, but this one doesn't exactly explain how much and in what ways Dora contributed to the fires. It does include a slide explaining why the name was suggested for retirement, and it seems to have come from the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency and the governor's office.

From a synoptics standpoint, it has to do with pressure gradient force (PGF) between the high pressure located to the north of Hawaii and the low pressure associated with Dora. While Dora did not directly impact Hawaii as the cyclone passed to the south, it enhanced the PGF over Hawaii and advected cyclonic vorticity (and more importantly, no moisture):
https://i.imgur.com/oFGkf5h.png

This enhances the surface wind speed over Hawaii, which resulted in the fanning of the wildfires:
https://i.imgur.com/DGyM6xY.png

To what degree this would have occurred if Dora was not present is uncertain, and other contributions (like a 3rd year La Nina enhancing drought conditions) also played a pivotal role.

See this tweet from Philippe Papin:
 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1689757464487395328

[USTropics]

I have two things from the WMO meeting files that I think are relevant to the discussions here. First of all, here is a presentation given on climate change and Atlantic hurricanes. It covers most of the ground USTropics posted about but it's less technical.

Here is a report from the CPHC on Hurricane Dora and the Hawaiian wildfires. Maybe the live version of the presentation went into more detail, but this one doesn't exactly explain how much and in what ways Dora contributed to the fires. It does include a slide explaining why the name was suggested for retirement, and it seems to have come from the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency and the governor's office.

From a synoptics standpoint, it has to do with pressure gradient force (PGF) between the high pressure located to the north of Hawaii and the low pressure associated with Dora. While Dora did not directly impact Hawaii as the cyclone passed to the south, it enhanced the PGF over Hawaii and advected cyclonic vorticity (and more importantly, no moisture):
https://i.imgur.com/oFGkf5h.png

This enhances the surface wind speed over Hawaii, which resulted in the fanning of the wildfires:
https://i.imgur.com/DGyM6xY.png

To what degree this would have occurred if Dora was not present is uncertain, and other contributions (like a 3rd year La Nina enhancing drought conditions) also played a pivotal role.

See this tweet from Philippe Papin:
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1689757464487395328

I did see that last year and agree with Papin on this (also personally don't think Dora should be retired). This is the criteria that WMO is retiring Dora based on though, even if it's contributions to enhancing the PGF and surface winds were minor since it was not explained in much detail.

[JetFuel_SE]

From a synoptics standpoint, it has to do with pressure gradient force (PGF) between the high pressure located to the north of Hawaii and the low pressure associated with Dora. While Dora did not directly impact Hawaii as the cyclone passed to the south, it enhanced the PGF over Hawaii and advected cyclonic vorticity (and more importantly, no moisture):
https://i.imgur.com/oFGkf5h.png

This enhances the surface wind speed over Hawaii, which resulted in the fanning of the wildfires:
https://i.imgur.com/DGyM6xY.png

To what degree this would have occurred if Dora was not present is uncertain, and other contributions (like a 3rd year La Nina enhancing drought conditions) also played a pivotal role.

See this tweet from Philippe Papin:
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1689757464487395328

I did see that last year and agree with Papin on this (also personally don't think Dora should be retired). This is the criteria that WMO is retiring Dora based on though, even if it's contributions to enhancing the PGF and surface winds were minor since it was not explained in much detail.

I think it was also because the general public associated the fires with Dora, and that was the thing that pushed the retirement question over the edge.

[ljmac75]

Going back to the retired eastern pacific names rabbit hole, I think half the retired names have been for reasons other than actual damage or destruction. Hazel, Adele and Knut were retired for unclear reasons, Iva was retired for sounding too similar to Iwa, Adolph, Israel, and Isis were removed for political reasons, and now Dora is retired seemingly due to the perception that it caused the wildfires in Hawaii.

[Xyls]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1770511603865211243

On the Gulf Coast there's Bret, Idalia, and Zeta (if you even count that). On the East Coast, I don't think there's any major landfalling hurricanes that weren't retired, but Helene (1958) and Emily (1993) are both considered category 3 impacts to North Carolina and were not retired.

Hurricane Gracie in 1959 was a Category 4 when it made landfall in South Carolina and was not retired.

[DioBrando]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1770511603865211243

On the Gulf Coast there's Bret, Idalia, and Zeta (if you even count that). On the East Coast, I don't think there's any major landfalling hurricanes that weren't retired, but Helene (1958) and Emily (1993) are both considered category 3 impacts to North Carolina and were not retired.

Hurricane Gracie in 1959 was a Category 4 when it made landfall in South Carolina and was not retired.

Retired hurricane names: Atlantic Basin
The only time the lists above change is when a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate or insensitive. In this situation, the name will be stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it at the annual meeting of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The retired names are as follows:

A: Allison (2001), Andrew (1992), Alicia (1983), Allen (1980), Anita (1977), Agnes (1972), Audrey (1957)
B: Bob (1991), Beulah (1967), Betsy (1965)
C: Charley (2004), Cesar (1996), Carmen (1974), Celia (1970), Camille (1969), Carol (1965), Cleo (1964), Carla (1961), Connie (1955)
D: Dorian (2019), Dean (2007), Dennis (2005), Diana (1990), David (1979), Dora (1964), Donna (1960), Diane (1955)
E: Erika (2015), Elena (1985), Eloise (1975), Edna (1968)
F: Fiona (2022), Florence (2018), Felix (2007), Frances (2004), Fabian (2003), Floyd (1999), Fran (1996), Frederic (1979), Fifi (1974), Flora (1963)
G: Gustav (2008), Georges (1998), Gilbert (1988), Gloria (1985), Gracie (1959)

[Teban54]

On the Gulf Coast there's Bret, Idalia, and Zeta (if you even count that). On the East Coast, I don't think there's any major landfalling hurricanes that weren't retired, but Helene (1958) and Emily (1993) are both considered category 3 impacts to North Carolina and were not retired.

Hurricane Gracie in 1959 was a Category 4 when it made landfall in South Carolina and was not retired.

Retired hurricane names: Atlantic Basin
The only time the lists above change is when a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate or insensitive. In this situation, the name will be stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it at the annual meeting of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The retired names are as follows:

A: Allison (2001), Andrew (1992), Alicia (1983), Allen (1980), Anita (1977), Agnes (1972), Audrey (1957)
B: Bob (1991), Beulah (1967), Betsy (1965)
C: Charley (2004), Cesar (1996), Carmen (1974), Celia (1970), Camille (1969), Carol (1965), Cleo (1964), Carla (1961), Connie (1955)
D: Dorian (2019), Dean (2007), Dennis (2005), Diana (1990), David (1979), Dora (1964), Donna (1960), Diane (1955)
E: Erika (2015), Elena (1985), Eloise (1975), Edna (1968)
F: Fiona (2022), Florence (2018), Felix (2007), Frances (2004), Fabian (2003), Floyd (1999), Fran (1996), Frederic (1979), Fifi (1974), Flora (1963)
G: Gustav (2008), Georges (1998), Gilbert (1988), Gloria (1985), Gracie (1959)

Gracie does not show up in the list of retired names on the NNC page, nor its Wikipedia page.

I do see it appears in the NOAA page, which is presumably where you got the list from. If I were to guess, it could be due to Gracie never being used again since then. But this was primarily the result of a change in naming conventions since 1960, which I explained here.

[ljmac75]

Hurricane Gracie in 1959 was a Category 4 when it made landfall in South Carolina and was not retired.

Retired hurricane names: Atlantic Basin
The only time the lists above change is when a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate or insensitive. In this situation, the name will be stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it at the annual meeting of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The retired names are as follows:

A: Allison (2001), Andrew (1992), Alicia (1983), Allen (1980), Anita (1977), Agnes (1972), Audrey (1957)
B: Bob (1991), Beulah (1967), Betsy (1965)
C: Charley (2004), Cesar (1996), Carmen (1974), Celia (1970), Camille (1969), Carol (1965), Cleo (1964), Carla (1961), Connie (1955)
D: Dorian (2019), Dean (2007), Dennis (2005), Diana (1990), David (1979), Dora (1964), Donna (1960), Diane (1955)
E: Erika (2015), Elena (1985), Eloise (1975), Edna (1968)
F: Fiona (2022), Florence (2018), Felix (2007), Frances (2004), Fabian (2003), Floyd (1999), Fran (1996), Frederic (1979), Fifi (1974), Flora (1963)
G: Gustav (2008), Georges (1998), Gilbert (1988), Gloria (1985), Gracie (1959)

Gracie does not show up in the list of retired names on the NNC page, nor its Wikipedia page.

I do see it appears in the NOAA page, which is presumably where you got the list from. If I were to guess, it could be due to Gracie never being used again since then. But this was primarily the result of a change in naming conventions since 1960, which I explained here.

Here's something else weird I noticed about that NOAA page compared to the NHC page. The name Greta does not appear on the NOAA page but does appear on the NHC page of retired names. It was last used in 1978, which was the last year to use all female names.

[Xyls]

On the Gulf Coast there's Bret, Idalia, and Zeta (if you even count that). On the East Coast, I don't think there's any major landfalling hurricanes that weren't retired, but Helene (1958) and Emily (1993) are both considered category 3 impacts to North Carolina and were not retired.

Hurricane Gracie in 1959 was a Category 4 when it made landfall in South Carolina and was not retired.

Retired hurricane names: Atlantic Basin
The only time the lists above change is when a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate or insensitive. In this situation, the name will be stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it at the annual meeting of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The retired names are as follows:

A: Allison (2001), Andrew (1992), Alicia (1983), Allen (1980), Anita (1977), Agnes (1972), Audrey (1957)
B: Bob (1991), Beulah (1967), Betsy (1965)
C: Charley (2004), Cesar (1996), Carmen (1974), Celia (1970), Camille (1969), Carol (1965), Cleo (1964), Carla (1961), Connie (1955)
D: Dorian (2019), Dean (2007), Dennis (2005), Diana (1990), David (1979), Dora (1964), Donna (1960), Diane (1955)
E: Erika (2015), Elena (1985), Eloise (1975), Edna (1968)
F: Fiona (2022), Florence (2018), Felix (2007), Frances (2004), Fabian (2003), Floyd (1999), Fran (1996), Frederic (1979), Fifi (1974), Flora (1963)
G: Gustav (2008), Georges (1998), Gilbert (1988), Gloria (1985), Gracie (1959)

This is news to me. I think wherever you got this from is incorrect. Unless this is a sneak retirement?

[USTropics]

Hurricane Gracie in 1959 was a Category 4 when it made landfall in South Carolina and was not retired.

Retired hurricane names: Atlantic Basin
The only time the lists above change is when a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate or insensitive. In this situation, the name will be stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it at the annual meeting of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The retired names are as follows:

A: Allison (2001), Andrew (1992), Alicia (1983), Allen (1980), Anita (1977), Agnes (1972), Audrey (1957)
B: Bob (1991), Beulah (1967), Betsy (1965)
C: Charley (2004), Cesar (1996), Carmen (1974), Celia (1970), Camille (1969), Carol (1965), Cleo (1964), Carla (1961), Connie (1955)
D: Dorian (2019), Dean (2007), Dennis (2005), Diana (1990), David (1979), Dora (1964), Donna (1960), Diane (1955)
E: Erika (2015), Elena (1985), Eloise (1975), Edna (1968)
F: Fiona (2022), Florence (2018), Felix (2007), Frances (2004), Fabian (2003), Floyd (1999), Fran (1996), Frederic (1979), Fifi (1974), Flora (1963)
G: Gustav (2008), Georges (1998), Gilbert (1988), Gloria (1985), Gracie (1959)

This is news to me. I think wherever you got this from is incorrect. Unless this is a sneak retirement?

It depends on the agency that you use. WMO had Gracie officially retired until their 2017 list, where it was removed from their retired list (NOAA never had it retired). Greta (1978) is another system that the WMO still has retired but NOAA does not consider it retired.

[Kingarabian]

I have two things from the WMO meeting files that I think are relevant to the discussions here. First of all, here is a presentation given on climate change and Atlantic hurricanes. It covers most of the ground USTropics posted about but it's less technical.

Here is a report from the CPHC on Hurricane Dora and the Hawaiian wildfires. Maybe the live version of the presentation went into more detail, but this one doesn't exactly explain how much and in what ways Dora contributed to the fires. It does include a slide explaining why the name was suggested for retirement, and it seems to have come from the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency and the governor's office.

From a synoptics standpoint, it has to do with pressure gradient force (PGF) between the high pressure located to the north of Hawaii and the low pressure associated with Dora. While Dora did not directly impact Hawaii as the cyclone passed to the south, it enhanced the PGF over Hawaii and advected cyclonic vorticity (and more importantly, no moisture):
https://i.imgur.com/oFGkf5h.png

This enhances the surface wind speed over Hawaii, which resulted in the fanning of the wildfires:
https://i.imgur.com/DGyM6xY.png

To what degree this would have occurred if Dora was not present is uncertain, and other contributions (like a 3rd year La Nina enhancing drought conditions) also played a pivotal role.

My opinion that this is more than enough for retirement.

[HurricaneRyan]

Dora in a way is kind of like Joaquin. Joaquin was retired for similar circumstances such as a boat sinking and the flooding in the Southeast in addition to its damage in the Bahamas

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

I wish they had come up with new names that were less similar to what they were replacing. This reminds me of when Katrina and Rita got replaced by Katia and Rina. It's like Dora and Otis were so much in their minds that they couldn't think of replacements that wouldn't remind people of what they replaced.

[DioBrando]

I wish they had come up with new names that were less similar to what they were replacing. This reminds me of when Katrina and Rita got replaced by Katia and Rina. It's like Dora and Otis were so much in their minds that they couldn't think of replacements that wouldn't remind people of what they replaced.

so if jova were retired what would they have come up with, jovani? jovita?