Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
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Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
CSU
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-04.pdf --- April 13 --- 13/6/2
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-06.pdf June 1 --- 15/7/3
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-07.pdf July 6 --- 18/9/4
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-08.pdf August 3 --- 18/9/4
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-0803.pdf --- Two Week Forecast --- August 3-16 --- Normal Activity
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-0817.pdf --- Two Week Forecast --- August 17-30 --- Slightly above normal activity
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-0831.pdf --- Two Week Forecast --- August 31-September 13 --- Above average activity
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-0928.pdf --- Two Week Forecast --- September 28-October 11 --- Above average activity
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-1012.pdf --- Two Week Forecast --- October 12-25 --- Above average activity
TSR
https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastDecember2023.pdf ---December 6 forecast --- 13/6/3
https://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRA ... il2023.pdf --- April 6 --- 12/6/2
https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... on2023.pdf --- May 31 --- 13/6/2
https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... ly2023.pdf --- July 7 --- 17/8/3
https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... st2023.pdf --- August 8 --- 18/8/3
NOAA https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023- ... on-outlook --- May 25 --- 12-17 named storms
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa- ... ove-normal --- August 10 --- 14-21 named storms
UKMET https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2023 --- May 26 --- 20/11/5
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2023 --- August 1 --- 19/9/6
Joe Bastardi https://www.weatherbell.com/april-hurri ... t-forecast --- Between 10-14 named storms
https://www.weatherbell.com/august-hurr ... act-update --- August forecast --- 14/6-7/2
Crownweather Services https://crownweather.com/index.php/disc ... -march-20/ --- 12/6/2
Accuweather https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... st/1503557 March --- 11-15 named storms
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... F3zt2XIXG8 --- August 2 --- 11-15 maned storms
WeatherTiger https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/atl ... dium=email --- 13-18 named storms
University of Arizona https://www.nextgov.com/ideas/2023/05/f ... on/385916/ 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 majors
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-04.pdf --- April 13 --- 13/6/2
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-06.pdf June 1 --- 15/7/3
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-07.pdf July 6 --- 18/9/4
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-08.pdf August 3 --- 18/9/4
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-0803.pdf --- Two Week Forecast --- August 3-16 --- Normal Activity
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-0817.pdf --- Two Week Forecast --- August 17-30 --- Slightly above normal activity
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-0831.pdf --- Two Week Forecast --- August 31-September 13 --- Above average activity
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-0928.pdf --- Two Week Forecast --- September 28-October 11 --- Above average activity
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-1012.pdf --- Two Week Forecast --- October 12-25 --- Above average activity
TSR
https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastDecember2023.pdf ---December 6 forecast --- 13/6/3
https://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRA ... il2023.pdf --- April 6 --- 12/6/2
https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... on2023.pdf --- May 31 --- 13/6/2
https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... ly2023.pdf --- July 7 --- 17/8/3
https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... st2023.pdf --- August 8 --- 18/8/3
NOAA https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023- ... on-outlook --- May 25 --- 12-17 named storms
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa- ... ove-normal --- August 10 --- 14-21 named storms
UKMET https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2023 --- May 26 --- 20/11/5
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2023 --- August 1 --- 19/9/6
Joe Bastardi https://www.weatherbell.com/april-hurri ... t-forecast --- Between 10-14 named storms
https://www.weatherbell.com/august-hurr ... act-update --- August forecast --- 14/6-7/2
Crownweather Services https://crownweather.com/index.php/disc ... -march-20/ --- 12/6/2
Accuweather https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... st/1503557 March --- 11-15 named storms
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... F3zt2XIXG8 --- August 2 --- 11-15 maned storms
WeatherTiger https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/atl ... dium=email --- 13-18 named storms
University of Arizona https://www.nextgov.com/ideas/2023/05/f ... on/385916/ 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 majors
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
The reason why the TSR extended forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity calls for ACE-activity
below the 1991-2020 climate norm level is our current expectation that warm-neutral or weak El Niño
conditions will occur during July-August-September 2023.
below the 1991-2020 climate norm level is our current expectation that warm-neutral or weak El Niño
conditions will occur during July-August-September 2023.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Lol, forecast accuracy at this date is a whopping 0%
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Interesting that he is going to release the forecast in early Febuary.
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1622343883781799942
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1622343883781799942
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- JetFuel_SE
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
cycloneye wrote:Interesting that he is going to release the forecast in early Febuary.
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1622343883781799942
Skill is basically zero at this time of the year, I'm not sure why people even bother lmao.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1624983272307523590
His current projection is 10-14 storms, 4-7 hurricanes, and 1-2 Majors
ACE between 60-90
His current projection is 10-14 storms, 4-7 hurricanes, and 1-2 Majors
ACE between 60-90
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Joe Bastardi first forecast=Between 10-14 named storms
Forecast is reasonable for what he thinks will happen. MJO in 5/6 rarely has US landfall impacts. But we know it won’t be in those phases the entire season. If he’s right and we are hovering in those phases, it will be relatively easy to time bursts once the models catch on to changes and amplifications. It may only happen once or twice that it circles around to 1-2-3, but those changes will time activity. I’m not giving an opinion on his forecast one way or the other. We are in 6 now which is a warm phase for the US in winter. I remember him saying that the trend typically tries to repeat later on in the year.
Here is July-August-September composites (scroll to 5/6).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... _image.png
Tropical Composites (May-September)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... maysep.gif
Here is July-August-September composites (scroll to 5/6).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... _image.png
Tropical Composites (May-September)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... maysep.gif
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- SFLcane
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Call what you want this methology has worked ok last few years. Or was it luck?
Quote from article: Out of recorded history, 1957 and 1976 are the best seasons to compare to 2023. Both were coming off 'triple dip La Niña's and both of which indicate near average seasons in terms of activity. Based on this, we're forecasting 14-18 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes.
https://www.wesh.com/article/2023-hurri ... t/42888945
Quote from article: Out of recorded history, 1957 and 1976 are the best seasons to compare to 2023. Both were coming off 'triple dip La Niña's and both of which indicate near average seasons in terms of activity. Based on this, we're forecasting 14-18 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes.
https://www.wesh.com/article/2023-hurri ... t/42888945
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- NotSparta
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
SFLcane wrote:Call what you want this methology has worked ok last few years. Or was it luck?
Quote from article: Out of recorded history, 1957 and 1976 are the best seasons to compare to 2023. Both were coming off 'triple dip La Niña's and both of which indicate near average seasons in terms of activity. Based on this, we're forecasting 14-18 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes.
https://www.wesh.com/article/2023-hurri ... t/42888945
https://i.postimg.cc/qM7cySqh/image.png
https://i.postimg.cc/P5gmGq4Y/mage2.png
Ah, this again. Pure luck, would be nice if it was actually something legit but sadly at the end of the day it is not
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
- crownweather
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
NotSparta wrote:SFLcane wrote:Call what you want this methology has worked ok last few years. Or was it luck?
Quote from article: Out of recorded history, 1957 and 1976 are the best seasons to compare to 2023. Both were coming off 'triple dip La Niña's and both of which indicate near average seasons in terms of activity. Based on this, we're forecasting 14-18 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes.
https://www.wesh.com/article/2023-hurri ... t/42888945
https://i.postimg.cc/qM7cySqh/image.png
https://i.postimg.cc/P5gmGq4Y/mage2.png
Ah, this again. Pure luck, would be nice if it was actually something legit but sadly at the end of the day it is not
Exactly. I tried reproducing the results they came up with last season at about this time and I really couldn't. I even messaged the met at WESH for some guidance on how they come up with these figures because I wanted to try it with other weather events. They refused to give me any sort of an answer. Additionally, there are NO research papers anywhere on the methodology behind the Lezak's Recurring Cycle and the only documentation is found on Lezak's website and even that is very dubious.
My view is that it's voodoo science and honestly I'm sad to see some big weather company names (Baron) putting all their eggs into using this to consult for their clients. They will be doing their clients a huge disservice.
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Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
https://crownweather.com
Crown Weather Services
https://crownweather.com
- wxman57
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
I've spoken with Phil Klotzbach about the value of seasonal outlooks on many occasions. I pointed out to him that unless the outlook could confidently highlight a particular area that is more likely to be impacted by a significant storm, then there is nothing that any business would do differently to prepare. No value, basically, if a business cannot act on such a prediction. Numbers alone do not indicate an increased or decreased threat level for an area. I explained to Phil that we have some offshore clients in the Gulf of Mexico who would pay for a good forecast of the potential for the drilling/production areas to be shut down over the coming month, as they have to allot funds for possible shut downs due to an approaching TC. He said the Gulf is a particularly difficult area to make such a forecast.
People sure love to see those numbers, though. I'll be making my first presentation of a seasonal outlook next Tuesday. Looks like average to below-average numbers. Maybe similar to last year in terms of numbers, maybe less.
People sure love to see those numbers, though. I'll be making my first presentation of a seasonal outlook next Tuesday. Looks like average to below-average numbers. Maybe similar to last year in terms of numbers, maybe less.
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- SFLcane
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
wxman57 wrote:I've spoken with Phil Klotzbach about the value of seasonal outlooks on many occasions. I pointed out to him that unless the outlook could confidently highlight a particular area that is more likely to be impacted by a significant storm, then there is nothing that any business would do differently to prepare. No value, basically, if a business cannot act on such a prediction. Numbers alone do not indicate an increased or decreased threat level for an area. I explained to Phil that we have some offshore clients in the Gulf of Mexico who would pay for a good forecast of the potential for the drilling/production areas to be shut down over the coming month, as they have to allot funds for possible shut downs due to an approaching TC. He said the Gulf is a particularly difficult area to make such a forecast.
People sure love to see those numbers, though. I'll be making my first presentation of a seasonal outlook next Tuesday. Looks like average to below-average numbers. Maybe similar to last year in terms of numbers, maybe less.
Threat areas?
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- SFLcane
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Brian Shields | Certified Meteorologist
18-8-3 Heat content will be a problem!
Link: https://youtu.be/Fcln7y5BVV4
18-8-3 Heat content will be a problem!
Link: https://youtu.be/Fcln7y5BVV4
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- JetFuel_SE
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
SFLcane wrote:Brian Shields | Certified Meteorologist
18-8-3 Heat content will be a problem!
https://i.postimg.cc/rmj1kMnJ/sst.jpg
https://youtu.be/Fcln7y5BVV4
18 storms in a likely El Niño? Guess that may be possible if the current +AMO pattern holds, but I highly doubt we'll get quite that high.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
JetFuel_SE wrote:SFLcane wrote:Brian Shields | Certified Meteorologist
18-8-3 Heat content will be a problem!
https://i.postimg.cc/rmj1kMnJ/sst.jpg
https://youtu.be/Fcln7y5BVV4
18 storms in a likely El Niño? Guess that may be possible if the current +AMO pattern holds, but I highly doubt we'll get quite that high.
The only good analogue to that (since at least 1950) would probably be 1969. That was also a traditional El Nino year that also saw 18 NSs. 2004 was a Modoki with 15 total NSs. In most cases, it seems like the more active El Nino years since 1950 tended to see anywhere from roughly 10 to 13 NSs.
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Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
JetFuel_SE wrote:SFLcane wrote:Brian Shields | Certified Meteorologist
18-8-3 Heat content will be a problem!
https://i.postimg.cc/rmj1kMnJ/sst.jpg
https://youtu.be/Fcln7y5BVV4
18 storms in a likely El Niño? Guess that may be possible if the current +AMO pattern holds, but I highly doubt we'll get quite that high.
Could he also be factoring the quick spin-ups and the Subtropical region?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
JetFuel_SE wrote:cycloneye wrote:Interesting that he is going to release the forecast in early Febuary.
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1622343883781799942
Skill is basically zero at this time of the year, I'm not sure why people even bother lmao.
I guess in order to know that skill is zero, they actually have to make some forecasts. So there is *some* knowledge being generated
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
SFLcane wrote:Brian Shields | Certified Meteorologist
18-8-3 Heat content will be a problem!
https://i.postimg.cc/rmj1kMnJ/sst.jpg
https://youtu.be/Fcln7y5BVV4
Yeah I'm not buying it, for me this may be the first season with below average activity since 2015
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- wxman57
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
SFLcane wrote:wxman57 wrote:I've spoken with Phil Klotzbach about the value of seasonal outlooks on many occasions. I pointed out to him that unless the outlook could confidently highlight a particular area that is more likely to be impacted by a significant storm, then there is nothing that any business would do differently to prepare. No value, basically, if a business cannot act on such a prediction. Numbers alone do not indicate an increased or decreased threat level for an area. I explained to Phil that we have some offshore clients in the Gulf of Mexico who would pay for a good forecast of the potential for the drilling/production areas to be shut down over the coming month, as they have to allot funds for possible shut downs due to an approaching TC. He said the Gulf is a particularly difficult area to make such a forecast.
People sure love to see those numbers, though. I'll be making my first presentation of a seasonal outlook next Tuesday. Looks like average to below-average numbers. Maybe similar to last year in terms of numbers, maybe less.
Threat areas?
Phil doesn't do threat areas. However, the analog years point to three prime locations - South Florida, middle Gulf coast (LA to FL Panhandle), and the Yucatan Peninsula.
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- SFLcane
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
wxman57 wrote:SFLcane wrote:wxman57 wrote:I've spoken with Phil Klotzbach about the value of seasonal outlooks on many occasions. I pointed out to him that unless the outlook could confidently highlight a particular area that is more likely to be impacted by a significant storm, then there is nothing that any business would do differently to prepare. No value, basically, if a business cannot act on such a prediction. Numbers alone do not indicate an increased or decreased threat level for an area. I explained to Phil that we have some offshore clients in the Gulf of Mexico who would pay for a good forecast of the potential for the drilling/production areas to be shut down over the coming month, as they have to allot funds for possible shut downs due to an approaching TC. He said the Gulf is a particularly difficult area to make such a forecast.
People sure love to see those numbers, though. I'll be making my first presentation of a seasonal outlook next Tuesday. Looks like average to below-average numbers. Maybe similar to last year in terms of numbers, maybe less.
Threat areas?
Phil doesn't do threat areas. However, the analog years point to three prime locations - South Florida, middle Gulf coast (LA to FL Panhandle), and the Yucatan Peninsula.
What years are those?
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