HurricaneEnzo wrote:Shell Mound wrote:Weather Dude wrote:You can't compare those sets of years though because that's an active era compared to an inactive one...
The point is that cooler global temperatures have tended to coincide with more intense Atlantic hurricane seasons and longer-lived +AMO cycles.
To me it just means a lot of Hurricanes were overestimated in the 'cool era' pictured. Recon was in its infancy, no satellite, no SFMR led to a lot of overestimated storms. They were estimating wind speed by looking at what the ocean looked like below them from the plane. It was the best they could do at the time but HIGHLY unreliable.
That is just my personal opinion though.
If anything, numerous studies and experimental reanalyses, including satellite-based, suggest we are greatly underestimating intensities even today, especially in basins outside the Atlantic. I recall that Dr. Maue made excellent tweets in regard to this issue, pointing out numerous Pacific and IO cyclones whose satellite estimates indicated far higher winds than officially present in the official databases. Satellite imagery also indicates that numerous Category-5 cyclones over the EPAC during the 1980s were misclassified as far weaker in HURDAT. Additionally, this study highlights the following findings:
The present study focuses on the 10 most recent Category 5 hurricanes recorded in the Atlantic, from Hurricane Andrew (1992) through Hurricane Felix (2007). These 10 hurricanes are placed into the context of the technology available in the period of 1944–53, the first decade of aircraft reconnaissance. A methodology is created to determine how many of these 10 recent Category 5 hurricanes likely would have been recorded as Category 5 if they had occurred during this period using only the observations that likely would have been available with existing technology and observational networks. Late-1940s and early1950s best-track intensities are determined for the entire lifetime of these 10 recent Category 5 hurricanes. It is found that likely only 2 of these 10—both Category 5 landfalling hurricanes—would have been recorded as Category 5 hurricanes if they had occurred during the late-1940s period.