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Well, hearing all this potential hype about this hurricane season, and always seeing people looking at previous years for analogs, I was curious just what kind of threat to the U.S. coastlines we faced in the past during Neutral years (since this year looks, currently, to be one). Using the chart that cycloneye put up in the thread "ENSO Updates", I browsed the records for the 5 seasons since 1995 that were considered Neutral (1996, 2001, 2003, 2005, and 2008). I was curious if there were any striking similarities between those seasons, in which states were struck by tropical cyclones (Tropical Depression through Hurricane)...what I did find was fairly interesting (to me at least), though the data span is not large enough to point to anything specific.
I only used direct landfalls, and only listed the state that the center of circulation made landfall on (even though I know tropical cyclones are NOT a point, and the effects can and do extend well into other states). If the cyclone impacted other states, but did not move back over water first, I did not include the other states (examples being Isabel impacting the NE after making landfall in eastern NC, or there was one TS that road up the east coast after hitting Florida, but it stayed inland the whole time). There was one system that I could not tell which state it made landfall on (2005, TS Tammy I believe, right on the FL/AL border). I gave the credit to AL.
***There was one system I included that did not make "landfall" per the definition from the NHC (Hurricane Ophelia, 2005 in eastern NC). The eye did cross over the coast, but the center of circulation did not cross over land...it is included, however, because of the effects it had on NC, which were just as bad as if it had made landfall (that slow freaking movement was painful!).***
Out of the five years, these states were hit:
FL (5 out of the 5 years)
NC (4 out of the 5 years)***
TX (4 out of the 5 years)
LA (3 out of the 5 years)
AL (1 out of the 5 years)
MS (1 out of the 5 years, being Katrina's third landfall)
Out of the 5 years, a total of these many storms made landfall:
FL: 1 TD, 5 TS, 3 H
NC: 2 TS, 4 H***
TX: 3 TS, 4 H
LA: 1 TS, 3 H
AL: 1 TS
MS: 1 H
Any errors are mine, I was just browsing through the maps on weatherunderground. Remember that just because I show the landfall in one state, doesn't mean there were not adverse effects in other states! (Example being Hurricane Rita made landfall in Texas, but also caused damages in LA)
Here is a break down of every year (as best as my eyes could read from the map):
1996:
Florida: 1 TS
NC: 2 H, 1 TS
2001:
TX: 1 TS
FL: 2 TS
2003:
TX: 1 H, 1 TS
FL: 1 TD
NC: 1 H
LA: 1 TS
2005:
FL: 3 H, 1 TS
MS: 1 H
AL: 1 TS
NC: 1 H***
TX: 1 H
LA: 2 H
2008:
TX: 2 H, TS
FL: 1 TS
LA: 1 H
NC: 1 TS
In conclusion, looking at that little bit of data, I would expect Florida, Texas, and North Carolina to be under the threat of some type of tropical cyclone at least once this season (I know, NC and FL are "givens"). By threat, I don't mean in the 5 or 3-day cones, either...I mean some part of those states, I believe will fall under either Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warnings.
Feel free to comment.
- Tim