Neutral Hurricane Season Threat Area "Study"

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 33
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

Neutral Hurricane Season Threat Area "Study"

#1 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Mar 26, 2010 8:44 am

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Well, hearing all this potential hype about this hurricane season, and always seeing people looking at previous years for analogs, I was curious just what kind of threat to the U.S. coastlines we faced in the past during Neutral years (since this year looks, currently, to be one). Using the chart that cycloneye put up in the thread "ENSO Updates", I browsed the records for the 5 seasons since 1995 that were considered Neutral (1996, 2001, 2003, 2005, and 2008). I was curious if there were any striking similarities between those seasons, in which states were struck by tropical cyclones (Tropical Depression through Hurricane)...what I did find was fairly interesting (to me at least), though the data span is not large enough to point to anything specific.

I only used direct landfalls, and only listed the state that the center of circulation made landfall on (even though I know tropical cyclones are NOT a point, and the effects can and do extend well into other states). If the cyclone impacted other states, but did not move back over water first, I did not include the other states (examples being Isabel impacting the NE after making landfall in eastern NC, or there was one TS that road up the east coast after hitting Florida, but it stayed inland the whole time). There was one system that I could not tell which state it made landfall on (2005, TS Tammy I believe, right on the FL/AL border). I gave the credit to AL.

***There was one system I included that did not make "landfall" per the definition from the NHC (Hurricane Ophelia, 2005 in eastern NC). The eye did cross over the coast, but the center of circulation did not cross over land...it is included, however, because of the effects it had on NC, which were just as bad as if it had made landfall (that slow freaking movement was painful!).***

Out of the five years, these states were hit:
FL (5 out of the 5 years)
NC (4 out of the 5 years)***
TX (4 out of the 5 years)
LA (3 out of the 5 years)
AL (1 out of the 5 years)
MS (1 out of the 5 years, being Katrina's third landfall)

Out of the 5 years, a total of these many storms made landfall:
FL: 1 TD, 5 TS, 3 H
NC: 2 TS, 4 H***
TX: 3 TS, 4 H
LA: 1 TS, 3 H
AL: 1 TS
MS: 1 H

Any errors are mine, I was just browsing through the maps on weatherunderground. Remember that just because I show the landfall in one state, doesn't mean there were not adverse effects in other states! (Example being Hurricane Rita made landfall in Texas, but also caused damages in LA)

Here is a break down of every year (as best as my eyes could read from the map):
1996:
Florida: 1 TS
NC: 2 H, 1 TS

2001:
TX: 1 TS

FL: 2 TS

2003:
TX: 1 H, 1 TS
FL: 1 TD
NC: 1 H
LA: 1 TS

2005:
FL: 3 H, 1 TS
MS: 1 H
AL: 1 TS
NC: 1 H***
TX: 1 H
LA: 2 H

2008:
TX: 2 H, TS
FL: 1 TS
LA: 1 H
NC: 1 TS

In conclusion, looking at that little bit of data, I would expect Florida, Texas, and North Carolina to be under the threat of some type of tropical cyclone at least once this season (I know, NC and FL are "givens"). By threat, I don't mean in the 5 or 3-day cones, either...I mean some part of those states, I believe will fall under either Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warnings.

Feel free to comment.
- Tim
0 likes   

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 28971
Age: 72
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Spring Branch area, Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: Neutral Hurricane Season Threat Area "Study"

#2 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Mar 26, 2010 9:10 am

Well, I don't like the conclusion :ggreen: but I do find it interesting. I hope you are wrong for all of us, but my guess is that you will be found to be correct. Maybe they will only be little tiny TS's! :cheesy:
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 33
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#3 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Mar 26, 2010 9:26 am

One can hope, right?! Haha! I am looking at the El Nino and La Nina years currently...what's up with MA and liking TS's during El Nino years?
0 likes   

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 33
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

Re: Neutral Hurricane Season Threat Area "Study"

#4 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Mar 26, 2010 11:18 am

Okay, I went through and did the same thing for El Nino seasons and La Nina seasons as well. I forgot to mention that any storm that made multiple landfalls in the same state were only counted 1 time (ie like TS Fay in 2008 for Florida). The hit I counted was for whichever landfall was the strongest (several hit the east coast of Florida as hurricanes, only to hit the Panhandle region as a TS after moving over the GOM...I only would count the hit as a hurricane in the totals).

I found something quite...interesting (and just "slightly" disturbing), when I did the El/La and compared all three sets together. All three sets have five years each (I included 2009 as an el nino year, and it brought everything to five a piece). It seems the El Nino years, as far as landfalls go, are more active than La Nina! They both were tied at 9 hurricanes a piece, but El Nino had a 4 more total TS landfalls. It seems during neutral/la nina years, a few select states are more likely to be nailed by a tropical cyclones than others, but during an el nino year, everyone is fair game.

Here is the data for all three, as said before, feel free to comment:

Neutral Seasons (see first post for asterisk reasoning):
1996:
Florida: 1 TS
NC: 2 H, 1 TS

2001:
TX: 1 TS

FL: 2 TS

2003:
TX: 1 H, 1 TS
FL: 1 TD
NC: 1 H
LA: 1 TS

2005:
FL: 3 H, 1 TS
MS: 1 H
AL: 1 TS
NC: 1 H***
TX: 1 H
LA: 2 H

2008:
TX: 2 H, TS
FL: 1 TS
LA: 1 H
NC: 1 TS

Out of the five years, these states were hit:
FL (5 out of the 5 years)
NC (4 out of the 5 years)***
TX (4 out of the 5 years)
LA (3 out of the 5 years)
AL (1 out of the 5 years)
MS (1 out of the 5 years, being Katrina's third landfall)

Out of the 5 years, a total of these many storms made landfall:
FL: 1 TD, 5 TS, 3 H
NC: 2 TS, 4 H***
TX: 3 TS, 4 H
LA: 1 TS, 3 H
AL: 1 TS
MS: 1 H

Total: 1 TD, 12 TS, 15 H (28 TCs)


El Nino seasons:
1997:
LA: 1 H
AL: 1 H

2002:
LA: 2 TS, 1 H
TX: 1 TD, 1 TS
FL: 1 TS
NC: 2 TS
MS: 1 TS
SC: 1 TS

2004:
FL: 1 TS, 3 H
NC: 1 H
SC: 1 H
MA: 1 TS
AL: 1 H
LA: 2 TS

2006:
FL: 2 TS
MA: 1 TS
NC: 1 TS

2009:
MS: 1 TS
FL: 1 TS

Out of the 5 years, these states were hit:
LA (3 out of the 5 years)
AL (2 out of the 5 years)
TX (1 out of the 5 years)
FL (4 out of the 5 years)
NC (3 out of the 5 years)
MS (2 out of the 5 years)
SC (2 out of the 5 years)
MA (2 out of the 5 years)

Out of the 5 years, a total of these many storms made landfall:
LA: 4 TS, 2 H
AL: 2 H
TX: 1 TD, 1 TS
FL: 5 TS, 3 H
NC: 3 TS, 1 H
MS: 2 TS
SC: 1 TS, 1 H
MA: 2 TS

Total: 1 TD, 18 TS, 9 H (28 TCs)


La Nina seasons:
1995:
FL: 2 TS, 2 H
TX: 1 TS

1998:
NC: 1 H
TX: 2 TS
FL: 1 TS, 1 H
MS: 1 H
LA: 1 TS

1999:
TX: 1 H
NC: 1 TS, 1 H
FL: 1 TS, 1 H

2000:
FL: 2 TS

2007:
NC: 1 TS
TX: 1 TS, 1 H
FL: 1 TS

Out of the 5 years, these states were hit:
FL (5 out of the 5 years)
TX (4 out of the 5 years)
NC (3 out of the 5 years)
MS (1 out of the 5 years)
LA (1 out of the 5 years)

Out of the 5 years, a total of these many storms made landfall:
FL: 7 TS, 4 H
TX: 4 TS, 2 H
NC: 2 TS, 2 H
MS: 1 H
LA: 1 TS

Total: 14 TS, 9 H (23 TCs)
0 likes   

User avatar
Old-TimeCane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 139
Age: 42
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 10:01 pm
Location: Myrtle Beach, SC

Re: Neutral Hurricane Season Threat Area "Study"

#5 Postby Old-TimeCane » Fri Mar 26, 2010 12:47 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
There was one system that I could not tell which state it made landfall on (2005, TS Tammy I believe, right on the FL/AL border). I gave the credit to AL.



2005, Tammy, actually made landfall near the FL/GA border (east coast), with the center crossing, I believe, in GA.
0 likes   

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 33
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

Re: Neutral Hurricane Season Threat Area "Study"

#6 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Mar 26, 2010 12:57 pm

Old-TimeCane wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:
There was one system that I could not tell which state it made landfall on (2005, TS Tammy I believe, right on the FL/AL border). I gave the credit to AL.



2005, Tammy, actually made landfall near the FL/GA border (east coast), with the center crossing, I believe, in GA.

Yeah...it was actually TS Arlene that I was not sure about:
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at20051.asp
0 likes   

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5272
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re: Neutral Hurricane Season Threat Area "Study"

#7 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri Mar 26, 2010 5:12 pm

I notice the most active seasons are in Neutral years; 1887 (19/11/2), 1933 (21/10/5), 1995 (19/11/5), and 2005 (28/15/7). None of them bode well for Texas. However, I think 1887 and 1933 were more active since satellites did not exist.
0 likes   

SETXWXLADY
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 216
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 3:26 pm
Location: SE TX Orange County

#8 Postby SETXWXLADY » Sat Mar 27, 2010 12:19 pm

Interesting study Tim. I haven't looked at the storms in terms of ENSO yet. Have been looking at them in terms of tracks and origin of development lately. I've been having trouble deciding where some of the older storms made landfall too. Heck I'm still not sure where Rita came ashore. Just know she straddled the border for about a hundred miles. Ah well I don't like any of the analog years people have been throwing around either. This should be an interesting season to say the least.
0 likes   

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 28971
Age: 72
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Spring Branch area, Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: Neutral Hurricane Season Threat Area "Study"

#9 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Mar 27, 2010 1:04 pm

If I read that right, I have decided I like El Nino years since they seem to leave Texas out of the picture the most. Besides that we actually had a winter this El Nino year too.
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 33
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

Re:

#10 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Mar 27, 2010 2:01 pm

SETXWXLADY wrote:Interesting study Tim. I haven't looked at the storms in terms of ENSO yet. Have been looking at them in terms of tracks and origin of development lately. I've been having trouble deciding where some of the older storms made landfall too. Heck I'm still not sure where Rita came ashore. Just know she straddled the border for about a hundred miles. Ah well I don't like any of the analog years people have been throwing around either. This should be an interesting season to say the least.

I know the feeling. Some of the storms were just guesses "The paint looks like it's more on this side of the line!" (since I was going off of weatherunderground's maps). I decided tonight to go and look through the archives of the NHC preliminary reports and see where exactly they listed their landfalls and go off of those. I might update everything tonight if I get the chance and stay up late enough (already 10 pm!). Looking through everything I have now...Florida is still munched regardless of the year, Texas better pray for El Nino...etc. The main things were wrong intensities at landfall, and the occasional wrong state (ie above, "Which way do I go, George?").

Just a side note, I like the form the TCRs were in prior to 2005 (website page, not .PDF or MS Word like they are today)...much, much, much, much easier to load on this internet Iraq has! I also like seasons with very little landfalls...something the last 30 years has not offered too often!
0 likes   

jinftl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4312
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:47 pm
Location: fort lauderdale, fl

Re: Neutral Hurricane Season Threat Area "Study"

#11 Postby jinftl » Sat Mar 27, 2010 6:04 pm

As the season draws closer and revised and updated forecasts come out from NOAA, Dr. Gray, Joe B., etc., we will start to hear more about what the thinking is as far as past seasons that are considered potential analogs to the upcoming one. This may help provide some early clues as to not only what the atmospheric and oceanic conditions will be that may make tropcial cyclone development more/less conducive, but it could also suggest potential tracks and landfall areas that are at greatest risk.

Earlier this month in an accuweather blog, Joe Bastardi mentioned potential analog seasons that would seem to indicate a higher threat across the U.S. and Caribbean overall, but with Florida and S.E. Coastal landfalling storms being the key notes of those particular seasons. It will be interesting to see if other analogue years are bounced around over time and by others.


"There are a number of physical drivers that have Bastardi concerned for this upcoming hurricane season. These include:

--The rapidly weakening El Niño
--Warmer ocean temperatures in the typical Atlantic tropical breeding grounds compared to last year (tropical storms draw energy from warm water)
--Weakening trade winds which reduce the amount of dry air injected into the tropics from Africa
--Higher humidity levels which provide additional upward motion in the air and fuel tropical storm development

Bastardi compared a number of years to the upcoming season in terms of storm setup, including 1964, 1995, and 1998. All were major impact seasons for the U.S. coast.

In 1964, Hurricane Cleo struck southeastern Florida near Miami as a Category 2 storm and killed 217 people.

In 1995, Hurricane Opal made landfall in Pensacola, Florida as a Category 3 storm affecting 200 miles of coastline and causing $3 billion in damages.

In 1998, Hurricane Bonnie struck near Wilmington, North Carolina as a borderline Category 2 to Category 3 storm causing significant harm to crops and $1 billion in damages.
"
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... 2010-1.asp
0 likes   

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 33
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

Re: Neutral Hurricane Season Threat Area "Study"

#12 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Mar 28, 2010 3:57 pm

Here are 4 images I created after compiling all the data from the NHC. This is using the data I looked up in the NHC archives, and not my "guess the map" ones. Note: I would of used the S2K maps, but I couldn't find them anywhere!

El Nino TC Landfalls:
Image

La Nina TC Landfalls:
Image

Neutral TC Landfalls:
Image

Total Landfalls from 1980 - 2009:
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Neutral Hurricane Season Threat Area "Study"

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 28, 2010 4:38 pm

:uarrow: Interesting graphics there.Neutral has the most landfalls in that period and all indications point that neutral will be the ENSO condition by next summer if the models are right.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31390
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#14 Postby KWT » Sun Mar 28, 2010 4:57 pm

Yeah there are more neutral landfalls, though there is nearly double the number of neutrals, so the totals probably aren't going to be that much different I'd imagine.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

SETXWXLADY
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 216
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 3:26 pm
Location: SE TX Orange County

Re: Re:

#15 Postby SETXWXLADY » Mon Mar 29, 2010 12:48 am

brunota2003 wrote:
SETXWXLADY wrote:Interesting study Tim. I haven't looked at the storms in terms of ENSO yet. Have been looking at them in terms of tracks and origin of development lately. I've been having trouble deciding where some of the older storms made landfall too. Heck I'm still not sure where Rita came ashore. Just know she straddled the border for about a hundred miles. Ah well I don't like any of the analog years people have been throwing around either. This should be an interesting season to say the least.

I know the feeling. Some of the storms were just guesses "The paint looks like it's more on this side of the line!" (since I was going off of weatherunderground's maps). I decided tonight to go and look through the archives of the NHC preliminary reports and see where exactly they listed their landfalls and go off of those. I might update everything tonight if I get the chance and stay up late enough (already 10 pm!). Looking through everything I have now...Florida is still munched regardless of the year, Texas better pray for El Nino...etc. The main things were wrong intensities at landfall, and the occasional wrong state (ie above, "Which way do I go, George?").

Just a side note, I like the form the TCRs were in prior to 2005 (website page, not .PDF or MS Word like they are today)...much, much, much, much easier to load on this internet Iraq has! I also like seasons with very little landfalls...something the last 30 years has not offered too often!



The time difference thing threw me until I got to the Iraq part. I read that you are in the military. I was a career army brat years ago. Now my brats are grown up. Or they're supposed to be. :lol: I was mainly using weather underground for my research too. The graphics you put together are pretty cool. I had read some where that Texas was second only to Florida in landfalls. That makes sense - second most coastline. But I did notice something strange about the tracks of the storms that hit Texas. Only one of them went through Florida! That really surprised me! And that one took the strangest track I've seen yet. I'll try to post the pic of the track.

Image
0 likes   

StormClouds63
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 582
Age: 60
Joined: Tue May 13, 2008 11:56 am
Location: Southwest Louisiana

Re: Neutral Hurricane Season Threat Area "Study"

#16 Postby StormClouds63 » Mon Mar 29, 2010 12:25 pm

brunota2003:

Thanks for taking the time and effort in creating those maps. Great job. Interesting for Louisiana, the hits in El Nino years are higher than La Nina or Neutral.
0 likes   

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 33
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

Re: Neutral Hurricane Season Threat Area "Study"

#17 Postby brunota2003 » Tue Mar 30, 2010 4:48 am

I did one more set of maps...these show how many years each state got hit by at least one tropical cyclone, instead of the number of TCs.

El Nino Years:

Image

Neutral Years:

Image

La Nina Years:

Image

Total Years (out of the 30) with at least one landfall:

Image
0 likes   

SETXWXLADY
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 216
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 3:26 pm
Location: SE TX Orange County

Re: Neutral Hurricane Season Threat Area "Study"

#18 Postby SETXWXLADY » Tue Mar 30, 2010 2:27 pm

Nice job again Tim. Thanks! :D
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: Re:

#19 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Mar 31, 2010 1:19 pm

SETXWXLADY wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:
SETXWXLADY wrote:Interesting study Tim. I haven't looked at the storms in terms of ENSO yet. Have been looking at them in terms of tracks and origin of development lately. I've been having trouble deciding where some of the older storms made landfall too. Heck I'm still not sure where Rita came ashore. Just know she straddled the border for about a hundred miles. Ah well I don't like any of the analog years people have been throwing around either. This should be an interesting season to say the least.

I know the feeling. Some of the storms were just guesses "The paint looks like it's more on this side of the line!" (since I was going off of weatherunderground's maps). I decided tonight to go and look through the archives of the NHC preliminary reports and see where exactly they listed their landfalls and go off of those. I might update everything tonight if I get the chance and stay up late enough (already 10 pm!). Looking through everything I have now...Florida is still munched regardless of the year, Texas better pray for El Nino...etc. The main things were wrong intensities at landfall, and the occasional wrong state (ie above, "Which way do I go, George?").

Just a side note, I like the form the TCRs were in prior to 2005 (website page, not .PDF or MS Word like they are today)...much, much, much, much easier to load on this internet Iraq has! I also like seasons with very little landfalls...something the last 30 years has not offered too often!



The time difference thing threw me until I got to the Iraq part. I read that you are in the military. I was a career army brat years ago. Now my brats are grown up. Or they're supposed to be. :lol: I was mainly using weather underground for my research too. The graphics you put together are pretty cool. I had read some where that Texas was second only to Florida in landfalls. That makes sense - second most coastline. But I did notice something strange about the tracks of the storms that hit Texas. Only one of them went through Florida! That really surprised me! And that one took the strangest track I've seen yet. I'll try to post the pic of the track.

Image


I'm thinking that one will be reanalyzed as two separate storms. Also I definitely prefer the PDF format to the HTML format for the TCR's.
0 likes   

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 33
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#20 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Mar 31, 2010 1:47 pm

The .PDFs might be cleaner, but they take way longer to load (a good 10 minutes to load, versus the quick look at the HTMLs, since I only needed 1 page at most, not all 300). And of course, as the HTML page loads, you can read the text...not so on the .PDFs
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot] and 60 guests