Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 93L)

[AtlanticWind]

A definite threat to somewhere in Florida
I would expect at most a minimal hurricane
but more likely a T.S.
You never know for sure this time of year though.

Yep. Looks like landfall around Hernando County. More east than prior runs, not shocked. I wouldn't be shocked at a landfall more around Venice. Due to the speed and some shear I agree it won't be strong. Waters are hot though. My personal opinion Big bend on down to the Keys is think of this as a Irene 1999 storm. I can see an 85mph storm maybe.

Still, for SWFL even a cat1 will still cause issues with power outages and recovery efforts.

Landfall is Wed AM. If it's SWFL like Englewood then Tue evening, Keys early Tue AM. Things are going to get going quick.

Good assessment, my worry is the extremely warm waters too.
They are really warm off the sw coast and in the keys
A compact storm could possibly ramp up quickly if conditions
are favorable.

[Ianswfl]

A definite threat to somewhere in Florida
I would expect at most a minimal hurricane
but more likely a T.S.
You never know for sure this time of year though.

Yep. Looks like landfall around Hernando County. More east than prior runs, not shocked. I wouldn't be shocked at a landfall more around Venice. Due to the speed and some shear I agree it won't be strong. Waters are hot though. My personal opinion Big bend on down to the Keys is think of this as a Irene 1999 storm. I can see an 85mph storm maybe.

Still, for SWFL even a cat1 will still cause issues with power outages and recovery efforts.

Landfall is Wed AM. If it's SWFL like Englewood then Tue evening, Keys early Tue AM. Things are going to get going quick.

Good assessment, my worry is the extremely warm waters too.
They are really warm off the sw coast and in the keys
A compact storm could possibly ramp up quickly if conditions
are favorable.

This won't be a Charley type storm. Not enough organization and origins like Charley. These types of storms take time to organize. Looks like some shear and dry air to deal with. What could happen is you have a storm that ramps up to 90-100mph and catches everyone off guard thinking it was going to be just an 80mph storm. End up with a lot of power outages and people didn't buy supplies.

Remember though water temps don't mean everything. Got shear and dry air it puts a lid on stuff. A hurricane would rather have 5kts shear, moist air and 83 degree waters versus 91 degrees waters and bone dry air and shear being pumped into it.

[Stratton23]

You know the sad thing is I would be excited if this was coming here, with a rainfall deficit so bad i would gladly take a cat 1 hurricane in a heart beat, but I know florida needs the rain as well, just not surge and power outage’s

[Ianswfl]

You know the sad thing is I would be excited if this was coming here, with a rainfall deficit so bad i would gladly take a cat 1 hurricane in a heart beat, but I know florida needs the rain as well, just not surge and power outage’s

In my area of swfl we need rain bad. An 80mph storm would help, but if it ramped up to 90 or 100 power outages galore. Many of our lines were jerry rigged basically after Ian. We still have crews around here beefing them up and doing permanent repairs. Plus it's still august so it will be hot afterwards.

[BobHarlem]

Oz euro. Very sensitive to exactly where in the west Caribbean and some influence from Franklin also. Weaker than 12z in general. NHC's outlook is spot on I think. Decent chance for a Tropical Storm, but more than that is questionable, and still a chance for not much at all. We should have a better idea of where the vorticity energy actually goes tomorrow evening.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS has something.

[jfk08c]

Yep. Looks like landfall around Hernando County. More east than prior runs, not shocked. I wouldn't be shocked at a landfall more around Venice. Due to the speed and some shear I agree it won't be strong. Waters are hot though. My personal opinion Big bend on down to the Keys is think of this as a Irene 1999 storm. I can see an 85mph storm maybe.



Still, for SWFL even a cat1 will still cause issues with power outages and recovery efforts.

Landfall is Wed AM. If it's SWFL like Englewood then Tue evening, Keys early Tue AM. Things are going to get going quick.

Good assessment, my worry is the extremely warm waters too.
They are really warm off the sw coast and in the keys
A compact storm could possibly ramp up quickly if conditions
are favorable.

This won't be a Charley type storm. Not enough organization and origins like Charley. These types of storms take time to organize. Looks like some shear and dry air to deal with. What could happen is you have a storm that ramps up to 90-100mph and catches everyone off guard thinking it was going to be just an 80mph storm. End up with a lot of power outages and people didn't buy supplies.

Remember though water temps don't mean everything. Got shear and dry air it puts a lid on stuff. A hurricane would rather have 5kts shear, moist air and 83 degree waters versus 91 degrees waters and bone dry air and shear being pumped into it.

Shear looks to have dropped quite a bit in the past 24 hours and has a nice pocket of pretty favorable conditions. Although I think forward speed will limit development, if it can get itself into that pocket I don't see anything else that would limit it other than time. There's a little bit of dry air but it's definitely not bone dry across the Gulf

[jlauderdal]

06z GFS has something.

https://i.imgur.com/xmmHA1C.gif

GFS sees the setup differently than the others that are on-board, will see if it corrects or is on to something in terms of the flow.

[toad strangler]

0z Euro sends a strong tropical stormish cyclone into the southern Big Bend

[GCANE]

The Upper-Level setup is actually quite believable for development.
Currently, a strong UL Low in the BoC will pull up the strong LL vort currently in the EPAC into the W Carib.
That UL Low will move west and an anti-cyclone will form in the W Carib coinciding with the LL vort.
Moderate humidity and CAPE then, so I don't see any rapid development at this point.

[TallyTracker]

It looks like the disturbance will be largely traveling with the shear vector. If the shear is divergent, that is a fairly favorable environment for intensification. The extreme example is Michael though it doesn’t look like the shear vector will line up that good thankfully!

[NDG]

The GFS still has big differences with the Euro, still showing a stronger narrow mid level ridge moving towards the western Caribbean south of Franklin, pushing the ML vorticity coming out of EPAC further north & weaker, then it shows a strong ULL/shortwave dropping south towards FL pushing the UL High in the Western Caribbean S & W towards MX.
So the it shows 20-25 knots of shear over the NW Caribbean thus a more broad stretched out vorticity pulling NE east of FL vs a more friendly UL environment shown by the Euro.

[Extratropical94]

10/50

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure, originating along the East Pacific
coast of Central America, is forecast to move into northwestern
Caribbean Sea by this weekend. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter into early next week, and a tropical
depression could form while it moves slowly northward, entering the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[wxman57]

The Upper-Level setup is actually quite believable for development.
Currently, a strong UL Low in the BoC will pull up the strong LL vort currently in the EPAC into the W Carib.
That UL Low will move west and an anti-cyclone will form in the W Carib coinciding with the LL vort.
Moderate humidity and CAPE then, so I don't see any rapid development at this point.

I was going to mention that upper low, as well as strong SW-NE winds aloft across the NW Caribbean. Anything moving into the NW Caribbean is Florida-bound. I'm thinking as early as Monday afternoon or possibly Tuesday. By Wednesday, it may be past Florida and heading out into the Atlantic. Not an ideal setup for strengthening. Could be anything from an area of rain to a moderate TS. I think chances are more like 70% than the NHC's 50%. They'll bump their numbers up by this weekend.

[USTropics]

A bit more active on the 06z GFS ensembles compared to 00z:

[Ianswfl]

A bit more active on the 06z GFS ensembles compared to 00z:
https://i.imgur.com/v4JDJby.gif

Track coming into agreement with euro. Track wise more like those june type sheared ts into Cedar Key, but a bit south of there.

[SFLcane]

A bit more active on the 06z GFS ensembles compared to 00z:
https://i.imgur.com/v4JDJby.gif

[Ianswfl]

A bit more active on the 06z GFS ensembles compared to 00z:
https://i.imgur.com/v4JDJby.gif

Weak still. 00z euro ensembles more tame too, not those cat4s earlier runs had. Icon 6z came in weaker too. Could see a cat1 i think.if it's gfs path into tampa or sarasota like these ensembles members could be some nice rains. Swfl members would still be a problem with recovery efforts.

[Ianswfl]

The Upper-Level setup is actually quite believable for development.
Currently, a strong UL Low in the BoC will pull up the strong LL vort currently in the EPAC into the W Carib.
That UL Low will move west and an anti-cyclone will form in the W Carib coinciding with the LL vort.
Moderate humidity and CAPE then, so I don't see any rapid development at this point.

I was going to mention that upper low, as well as strong SW-NE winds aloft across the NW Caribbean. Anything moving into the NW Caribbean is Florida-bound. I'm thinking as early as Monday afternoon or possibly Tuesday. By Wednesday, it may be past Florida and heading out into the Atlantic. Not an ideal setup for strengthening. Could be anything from an area of rain to a moderate TS. I think chances are more like 70% than the NHC's 50%. They'll bump their numbers up by this weekend.

More like a june track, sloppy system more like.

I'm going with an Irene 1999 storm except more north. Sheared cat1. What part of fl do you think landfsll is?

Whatever it is won't have a ton of time over water. This will evolve fast people will be caught off guard with the weekend.

[SFLcane]

A bit more active on the 06z GFS ensembles compared to 00z:
https://i.imgur.com/v4JDJby.gif

Weak still. 00z euro ensembles more tame too, not those cat4s earlier runs had. Icon 6z came in weaker too. Could see a cat1 i think.if it's gfs path into tampa or sarasota like these ensembles members could be some nice rains. Swfl members would still be a problem with recovery efforts.

That’s not the point a TS could surely form and heavy rain could be a problem for Florida. Once this gets into the ne Caribbean and gulf whatever is there should start moving NE.