2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[Teban54]

Good thread:
 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1763383944609689755



 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1763383957079445882

Is there any meteorological/scientific backing behind the idea of a warm blob off Newfoundland causing instability issues in the tropics? I'm just wondering because I keep seeing people bring it up. 2005 had a belt of warm anomalies off Newfoundland and outside the mdr it was prime time in the deep tropics.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_tools/monthly_maps/output_png/era5-0p5deg_31.png?1709298359384

Yeah, the point about Newfoundland warm blob is one that I find curious but don't necessarily agree with. It seems like except 2023, the other three years that Danny mentioned all had relatively warm subtropics (Carolinas coast and north), which is a more likely reason for increased shear and stability over the MDR. 2023 suffered from the El Nino background state.

[NotSparta]

Good thread:
 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1763383944609689755



 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1763383957079445882

Is there any meteorological/scientific backing behind the idea of a warm blob off Newfoundland causing instability issues in the tropics? I'm just wondering because I keep seeing people bring it up. 2005 had a belt of warm anomalies off Newfoundland and outside the mdr it was prime time in the deep tropics.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_tools/monthly_maps/output_png/era5-0p5deg_31.png?1709298359384

Note how it isn't super strong in 2005 so it's less of an issue. It was much more of an issue in 2022 where the anomalies were completely overbearing and by far outweighed the tropics

[WeatherBoy2000]

Good thread:
 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1763383944609689755



 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1763383957079445882

Is there any meteorological/scientific backing behind the idea of a warm blob off Newfoundland causing instability issues in the tropics? I'm just wondering because I keep seeing people bring it up. 2005 had a belt of warm anomalies off Newfoundland and outside the mdr it was prime time in the deep tropics.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_tools/monthly_maps/output_png/era5-0p5deg_31.png?1709298359384

Yeah, the point about Newfoundland warm blob is one that I find curious but don't necessarily agree with. It seems like except 2023, the other three years that Danny mentioned all had relatively warm subtropics (Carolinas coast and north), which is a more likely reason for increased shear and stability over the MDR. 2023 suffered from the El Nino background state.

One of the big things I notice, at least with 2016/2022, is the cool canary current region. From my understanding, the Canary current has been proven to impact stability in the mdr unlike anomalies east of Newfoundland. Dry and stabler air is more often ushered into the mdr with a cooler Canary current while the opposite is true with a warm one.

[JetFuel_SE]

Here is the CanSIPS.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1763372182904680527

https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1763373905740210630

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1763374191590449277

https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1763375816690352138

And so the trend of presidential election year seasons being destructive continues. That’s literally 2020 2.0.

2016 had Matthew, 2012 had Sandy, 2008 had Gustav and Ike, 2004 had a bit of everything.
Yeah it seems like mother nature gets a bit rowdy during election years.

[aspen]

Good thread:
 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1763383944609689755



 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1763383957079445882

Is there any meteorological/scientific backing behind the idea of a warm blob off Newfoundland causing instability issues in the tropics? I'm just wondering because I keep seeing people bring it up. 2005 had a belt of warm anomalies off Newfoundland and outside the mdr it was prime time in the deep tropics.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_tools/monthly_maps/output_png/era5-0p5deg_31.png?1709298359384

Note how it isn't super strong in 2005 so it's less of an issue. It was much more of an issue in 2022 where the anomalies were completely overbearing and by far outweighed the tropics

Yeah 2022’s warm blob was off the charts. IIRC, it was from a displaced high leading to a severe marine heatwave (>10C anomalies in some parts), focusing +SSTAs away from the tropics and allowing for a lot of undercutting troughs and wave-breaking. It led to a very hot and dry summer here in the northeast US. An unusual occurrence, but it’s not impossible that it happens again. It will be harder for such a blob/marine heatwave to compete with the tropics this year if the high MDR SSTAs persist, though.

[cycloneye]

The PK teaser for his April 4th forecast that all are waiting to see how high he goes on the numbers.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1763594729608872223

[JetFuel_SE]

The PK teaser for his April 4th forecast that all are waiting to see how high he goes on the numbers.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1763594729608872223

Yikes.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1763593932535902566

[CyclonicFury]

It's always fun to look at CFS 2-3 months out, for fun only

[Teban54]

It's always fun to look at CFS 2-3 months out, for fun only

https://i.imgur.com/vLvPaAy.png
https://i.imgur.com/QaQ22DX.png

Considering Bret 2017 and Bret 2023 were the two earliest MDR storms on record, both on June 19, a May MDR TC like that will absolutely drive everyone crazy if it actually plays out.

[CyclonicFury]

 https://x.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1763647220841136575

[NotSparta]

It's always fun to look at CFS 2-3 months out, for fun only

https://i.imgur.com/vLvPaAy.png
https://i.imgur.com/QaQ22DX.png

May MDR TC confirmed

[JetFuel_SE]

 https://x.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1763647220841136575

Idk what that person is talking about, 2010 was hyperactive.

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1763647220841136575

Idk what that person is talking about, 2010 was hyperactive.

2010 does meet NOAA's "extremely active" ACE threshold, but just barely. I imagine the tweet was using "hyperactive" to describe the top 10 ACE seasons since 1950 (2005, 1995, 2004, 2017, 1950, 1961, 1998, 2020, 1999, 2003), which were highlighted in the chart, with a cutoff at 177 ACE (1999 and 2003).

Edit: Actually, they classified their methodology here:
 https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1763681123693965505

[Teban54]

New OHC anomaly map:
 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1763678031904920005

[Patrick99]

Train right into the southeast.

https://i.postimg.cc/xjtP5fnv/IMG-8565.png

https://i.postimg.cc/DwXyvPgx/IMG-8568.jpg

This looks like the best setup I've seen for SE FL/Keys/Gulf hit(s) I've seen since these products have been put out. If the hurricane season looks anything at all like this....

[USTropics]

Here are tropical cyclone density plots I've made for storm tracks for 3 different ENSO phases (1) strong La Nina (< -1.0), (2) moderate La Nina (-0.9 to -0.5) and (3) Cold Neutral (-0.4 to -0.1) going back to 1850 for all storm tracks. ONI values are for ASO.

[Blown Away]

Here are tropical cyclone density plots I've made for storm tracks for 3 different ENSO phases (1) strong La Nina (< -1.0), (2) moderate La Nina (-0.9 to -0.5) and (3) Cold Neutral (-0.4 to -0.1) going back to 1850 for all storm tracks. ONI values are for ASO.

https://i.imgur.com/VRAfxE0.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/QEiMIkj.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/JMAgSKJ.jpeg

Great post and maps, thanks!

Can you post a warm neutral and El Nino for comparison?

[USTropics]

Here are tropical cyclone density plots I've made for storm tracks for 3 different ENSO phases (1) strong La Nina (< -1.0), (2) moderate La Nina (-0.9 to -0.5) and (3) Cold Neutral (-0.4 to -0.1) going back to 1850 for all storm tracks. ONI values are for ASO.

https://i.imgur.com/VRAfxE0.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/QEiMIkj.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/JMAgSKJ.jpeg

Great post and maps, thanks!

Can you post a warm neutral and El Nino for comparison?

Definitely. Below are the tropical cyclone density plots for warm neutral (0.1 - 0.4), moderate El Nino (0.5 - 0.9), and strong El Nino (> 1.0).

[blp]

Nice maps indeed. Looking at the Nina plots almost a slam dunk to get strong SW Carribean activity. Shows up very consistent in all Nina phases.