2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[NotSparta]

Yikes, the MDR will get more warmer with the -NAO comming in March.

https://i.imgur.com/d6Ns6wo.png

Seems about right. Spring begins and with it a -NAO develops. Like clockwork in the 2020s

[weeniepatrol]

Lmao the cooling from the brief period of stronger trades has already been reversed. MDR might hit +2.0C for the first time ever?

[cycloneye]

And the warming will intensifie in March thru early April per EPS with the -NAO.

[cycloneye]

Oh boy, JB continues with his 2024 Hurricane idea.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1763011863783088488

[Teban54]

For fun only: I was looking up a bunch of tweets, and found this from March 2013:
 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/317004456036294656



Disclaimer: by no means am I claiming this season will be like 2013 or that some other unknown factor will hold it back. Just thought it was interesting to see.

Current SSTAs for reference:

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1762236459761717421



 https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1762258722041008292

[ScottNAtlanta]

For fun only: I was looking up a bunch of tweets, and found this from March 2013:
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/317004456036294656?s=19
Disclaimer: by no means am I claiming this season will be like 2013 or that some other unknown factor will hold it back. Just thought it was interesting to see.

Current SSTAs for reference:
https://i.postimg.cc/j2srs22B/ssta-natl.png

As I recall...2013 had a warm signature pretty much everywhere which lead it to be slow. Currently we look to be setting up for the Atlantic Tripole with a cooler subtropical region...if it stays that way. That's another sign of a busy season

[zzzh]

For fun only: I was looking up a bunch of tweets, and found this from March 2013:
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/317004456036294656?s=19
Disclaimer: by no means am I claiming this season will be like 2013 or that some other unknown factor will hold it back. Just thought it was interesting to see.

Current SSTAs for reference:
https://i.postimg.cc/j2srs22B/ssta-natl.png

As I recall...2013 had a warm signature pretty much everywhere which lead it to be slow. Currently we look to be setting up for the Atlantic Tripole with a cooler subtropical region...if it stays that way. That's another sign of a busy season

2013 was warm in the winter-spring only. +NAO persisted in spring 2013 leading to a pretty obvious -AMO by June.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Hey...they just let out of the hospital today after being there a week with a bone infection of all things. I'm just getting back into the swing of things...must not have remembered correctly

[cycloneye]

Here is the CanSIPS.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1763372182904680527




 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1763373905740210630




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1763374191590449277




 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1763375816690352138

[MarioProtVI]

Here is the CanSIPS.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1763372182904680527

https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1763373905740210630

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1763374191590449277

https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1763375816690352138

And so the trend of presidential election year seasons being destructive continues. That’s literally 2020 2.0.

[Teban54]

Here is the CanSIPS.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1763372182904680527

https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1763373905740210630

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1763374191590449277

https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1763375816690352138

That third tweet comparing the 850 mb zonal wind anomalies to 2010, 1995, 2017, 2004 and 2005 is as eerie as it gets.

And then you have upper level winds like this:
 https://twitter.com/daniloevan11/status/1763379494247706808



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1763378905811960282



 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1763380020385325112



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1763381391977304434

[zzzh]

Comparing Cansips forecast with the composite of the most active hurricane seasons.

[zzzh]

Strong +U850 anomaly in the MDR is due to +AMO, in the Caribbean it's due to La Nina. When those 2 are both here, get ready for a busy season

[NotSparta]

https://i.imgur.com/5OsQlb2.png
https://i.imgur.com/WOVZU30.png
https://i.imgur.com/ZPu3YH8.png
https://i.imgur.com/kKby2G5.png
Comparing Cansips forecast with the composite of the most active hurricane seasons.

The u-wind anomalies are basically out of a textbook. Makes sense when all the indicators are favorable

[SFLcane]

Train right into the southeast.

[mixedDanilo.E]

https://i.imgur.com/5OsQlb2.png
https://i.imgur.com/WOVZU30.png
https://i.imgur.com/ZPu3YH8.png
https://i.imgur.com/kKby2G5.png
Comparing Cansips forecast with the composite of the most active hurricane seasons.

That's a very active look... to say the least.

[mixedDanilo.E]

It's like the WPAC called and wants to relocate to the atlantic lol.

[Teban54]

Good thread:
 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1763383944609689755



 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1763383957079445882

[WeatherBoy2000]

Good thread:
 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1763383944609689755



 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1763383957079445882

Is there any meteorological/scientific backing behind the idea of a warm blob off Newfoundland causing instability issues in the tropics? I'm just wondering because I keep seeing people bring it up. 2005 had a belt of warm anomalies off Newfoundland and outside the mdr it was prime time in the deep tropics.