2024 EPAC Season

[Astromanía]

Hey, EPAC will start the tropical season in the whole north hemisphere

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Major adjustment on today's 12z GFS run regarding the 0/30. More in line with the other guidance now.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b5b451f39162d88652bb562ccd86cd4fbc0dfd216ce5de67afd998197517c257.gif

Was a one-off apparently - past two runs are back to showing a hurricane again. Remains an outlier in that regard, though.

[Hurricane2022]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
Satellite data indicate that a small area of low pressure located
several hundred miles offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico
is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
gradual development is possible during the next day or so while the
low moves little. By this weekend, the system is forecast to merge
with another disturbance to its east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles to
the south of southern Mexico during the next couple of days. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves
slowly to the west or west-northwest, remaining south of the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Reinhart

[Kingarabian]

:sun:
https://imageshack.com/i/pmhXuCkzg
https://imageshack.com/i/poN0BRwJj

Should be tagged soon. MLC is pretty vigorous.

[cycloneye]

Eastern area looking better this afternoon.

[cycloneye]

We can post our forecast for EPAC as the season began yesterday. My numbers are 13/6/2.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Happy hour GFS with another dramatic swing for the 0/40. Now shows barely anything after spinning up a hurricane for multiple days.



(I'm predicting 15/6/2 btw)

[Hurricane2022]

We can post our forecast for EPAC as the season began yesterday. My numbers are 13/6/2.

My numbers are 13/4/2 ACE 72 (preliminary )

[Category5Kaiju]

My prediction: 18/6/3. ACE of 90. No Central Pacific-named storms (poor Hone will have to wait for some time).

Many short-lived storms. And maybe it's just some PTSD from Otis last year, but I'm going to predict that one of the three major-strength hurricanes will end up hitting Mexico, Central America, or Hawaii with great force and end up getting retired despite a relatively tame season otherwise.

It only takes one.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1791245144513028507

[Teban54]

We can post our forecast for EPAC as the season began yesterday. My numbers are 13/6/2.

Can I bet 14/2/0?

Anyway, on a more serious note, 14/5/3. Somewhat of a 2020 repeat with many slops but nevertheless still a few powerful storms. EPAC seems to still be capable of spinning up majors even during unfavorable years (just not as easily as El Nino years), as seen in 2020-22, three back-to-back La Nina years that averaged 3 majors per year.

[Category5Kaiju]

Welp….there goes that orange AOI

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce a
small area of showers and thunderstorms. While environmental
conditions appear only marginally favorable due to nearby dry air,
some development of this system is possible during the next day or
so as the low remains nearly stationary. By late this weekend, the
low is forecast to interact or merge with another system to its
east, and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
to the south of southern Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to
occur as the disturbance moves slowly westward during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[Kingarabian]

GFS/CMC off to a hot start lol.

[Chris90]

My numbers:

16/7/3 ACE: 86

[cycloneye]

Looks like this basin will have to wait a while longer for Aletta to show up.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat May 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms several hundred miles to the south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear marginal and
development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur as it
moves westward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. South of the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system
is no longer expected due to nearby dry air and unfavorable
environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.


Forecaster Kelly

[Teban54]

Looks like this basin will have to wait a while longer for Aletta to show up.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat May 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms several hundred miles to the south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear marginal and
development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur as it
moves westward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. South of the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system
is no longer expected due to nearby dry air and unfavorable
environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.


Forecaster Kelly

First Northern Hemisphere flop in 2024? Or do they not count if they never even got tagged as invests?

[Hurricane2022]

Looks like this basin will have to wait a while longer for Aletta to show up.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat May 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms several hundred miles to the south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear marginal and
development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur as it
moves westward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. South of the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system
is no longer expected due to nearby dry air and unfavorable
environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.


Forecaster Kelly

First Northern Hemisphere flop in 2024? Or do they not count if they never even got tagged as invests?

perhaps it could have been a bust, as the GFS was persistent for a while in showing a hurricane until stopping everything 2 days ago. The CMC was also on board predicting a moderate TS. Several ensembles also showed the formation of something there, but as King Euro never actually showed anything, I don't think it was necessarily a bust.

So, All Hail King Euro.

[Kingarabian]

Going with 16/7/3 with about 90 ACE.