Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 95L)
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
This looks like the first system to have model consensus to be a strong MDR hurricane since Sam
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
0z Euro
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
N2FSU wrote:6z GFShttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230901/1e66fbbae35df62ee5646dfc8e3642ae.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230901/a47203ae45a31104a13e35299c6eb8ca.jpg
Notice the difference in Euro and GFS. GFS clears out the N Atl. systems by the 9th. Euro has not completely done that. That may be something to keep an eye on in time. Otherwise GFS reminds me a little of Floyd 96 and Irene 11.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
Hr 192-onwards where it just veers away from Florida is classic GFS
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
Cone more to the west.
Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
this weekend. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
gradual development of this system during the early and middle
parts of next week, and a tropical depression could form while it
moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern and central
portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
this weekend. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
gradual development of this system during the early and middle
parts of next week, and a tropical depression could form while it
moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern and central
portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop= 8 AM TWO 0%/50% / Cone more to the west
Who said somewhere this season reminds then of 2004? Slow recurve scraping the east coast. Could easily make landfall somewhere, most likely to recurve based on just the odds. As long as the models aren't completely wrong this could be another good ACE maker.
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M a r k
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- SFLcane
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
It’s a long ways out but one things for sure recent trends are concerning! El Niño who?
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
Here it is.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
Meteorcane wrote:Who would have thought that the G-named storm would be impacting the future of the (probably) L-named storm...
An even more bizarre way to phrase this: Who would have though that AL06 would be impacting the future of potential AL13...
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- SFLcane
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
Could be a big one unfortunately everything looks like a go.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
Hopefully this means we’ll get an invest tag soon.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
SFLcane wrote:Could be a big one unfortunately everything looks like a go.
I don't mind if it's a big one. Could be Cat5 for all I care (that would be fun to track, actually), so long as it stays out to sea!
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- SFLcane
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
06z EPS very bullish one thing indeed that has my attention is this time around the strong members are actually to the south could be due to a strengthing ridge overhead as Idalia departs. This one has trouble all over it but well see.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
GFS run-to-run of the sub-tropical ridge looks concerning for CONUS east coast.
A long way to go though.
A long way to go though.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
Will be interesting to see how strong the ridge is by Labor Day before crossing the Hebert Box
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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