Tropical Wave in the SE GOMEX (Is Invest 91L)

[Wampadawg]

Doesn’t the ICON usually so a better job on these Homegrown storms

New Euro looks to like Texas

[gatorcane]

Euro now has a TD approaching se texas

Would be great news to bring some rain and relief from the heat.

[Stratton23]

gatorcane no kidding! I havent seen an inch of rain or even a half inch in nearly 2 months

[LadyBug72]

Euro now has a TD approaching se texas

It sure would be a welcome sight if it would bring some rain and no damage. It is so hot and dry here.

[captainbarbossa19]

I hope it rides the coastline of Louisiana on its way to Texas. All of Louisiana is currently under a burn ban and could use the moisture too. It is possible for this to happen since the coastline runs in an E-W direction and there will be a strong ridge on top of the system.

[Stormlover1970]

I hope it rides the coastline of Louisiana on its way to Texas. All of Louisiana is currently under a burn ban and could use the moisture too. It is possible for this to happen since the coastline runs in an E-W direction and there will be a strong ridge on top of the system.

hope it’s not an allison

[jasons2k]

Look what happens after it reaches SE Texas.

https://i.imgur.com/nNWijB8.gif

Erin's twin sister?

[KatDaddy]

We need the rainfall across TX. It will be interesting to see how things look this weekend.

[Wampadawg]

We need the rainfall across TX. It will be interesting to see how things look this weekend.

I think the models are struggling with this one

[Teban54]

3. Western Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western
Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. Some slow development
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves westward and
approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Wampadawg]

These Homegrown systems are a different animal ,tracking
Them is almost impossible to they show there ugly head then we are all over them

[Steve]

Models are starting to roll in. Icon has a hit +/- Kings Ranch - Corpus Christi area next Monday night. Icon shows a weak but intensifying system. Ignore the 1006mb because it’s not going to get that right. More important is the tightening trend which one would expect to see with a Texas landfall in August. Icon takes a south Texas path toward San Antonio and Uvalde. I’m about to go to bed but within a week, models are worth starting to pay attention to.

[Texoz]

Models are starting to roll in. Icon has a hit +/- Kings Ranch - Corpus Christi area next Monday night. Icon shows a weak but intensifying system. Ignore the 1006mb because it’s not going to get that right. More important is the tightening trend which one would expect to see with a Texas landfall in August. Icon takes a south Texas path toward San Antonio and Uvalde. I’m about to go to bed but within a week, models are worth starting to pay attention to.

Could be interesting week next week over Northern Mexico and SW US if Pacific Hurricane Hilary decides to curve NE over the Baja while(if) the GOM system tracks NW over southern Texas in the same time frame.

[jabman98]

It's making all the TV news in Houston. We really need the rain, that's for sure. Right now the Euro sure looks like it would dump rain across the city.

[LarryWx]

This is still not on the UKMET as a TC.

[ouragans]

3. Western Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western
Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. Some slow development
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves westward and
approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[underthwx]

It's making all the TV news in Houston. We really need the rain, that's for sure. Right now the Euro sure looks like it would dump rain across the city.

No news is good news. It's either feast or famine it seems like with the rain tho..the grass is like shredded wheat, I saw tumbleweeds rollin cross the road...but yes, rain is needed

[jaguars_22]

I’m guessing that the flare up north of PR is the disturbance that will be effecting the Texas coast Tuesday. I have been seeing an upper level low move across south texas before this system makes landfall. How would that effect development?

[cycloneye]

Western Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western
Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. Some slow development
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves westward and
approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[jasons2k]

Here is an update from local met Jeff Lindner with details about the gulf system:

Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories for all of the area today into the weekend.

After a brief reprieve of drier air into the region late Tuesday through Wednesday evening, southerly winds have returned along with muggy dewpoints and a more humid air mass will continue to move into the area from the south today. With the ridge of high pressure building back across Texas today into the weekend afternoon high temperatures will push into the 100-107 degree range for inland areas. Heat index values of 108-116 degrees will be common across the area today into the weekend.

College Station has recorded 38 straight days at 100 or above (previous record was 30 in 1998)
BUSH IAH has recorded 18 straight days at 100 or above (record is 33 in 2011)

Critically dry conditions remain across the entire area and fire weather concerns are in place. Luckily, generally light winds of 5-10mph are helping hinder rapid forward progression on any fires even with extremely low afternoon humidity values of less then 25% in many areas. Similar conditions with an increase in humidity are expected into the weekend and early next week.

Gulf of Mexico:
A weak tropical wave located north of Puerto Rico this morning will move westward toward the southern Bahamas and southern FL over the next 2-3 days. This wave has disorganized areas of convection associated with it at this time. The wave axis will move into the southeast/eastern Gulf of Mexico late Sunday into early Monday and then come under the influence of building high pressure over the Midwest which will result in a west to west-northwest track across the Gulf of Mexico toward the western or northwest Gulf coast by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Global forecast models along with some of their ensemble members continue to indicate the potential for a broad and weak surface reflection to develop with this wave. The guidance clustering is generally toward the lower and middle Texas coast with the ECWMF on the northern end of the guidance and the CMC on the south end. Overall, there has been little change in the various global solutions over the last 24 hours with development chances or track.

While upper level winds look generally favorable for development along with very warm Gulf of Mexico water temperatures, lingering dry air along the US Gulf coast combined with the fast forward motion of the wave may hinder development. Conditions appear to become most favorable just prior to landfall along the Texas coast and development if any may be very near the coast just prior to landfall, in part due to the board nature of the wave interacting with the concave curvature of the Texas coast.

Regardless, if the feature makes landfall as a tropical wave, tropical depression, or weak tropical storm the impacts will be nearly the same….much needed rainfall for parched areas of coastal Texas and possibly inland central and southwest Texas. Moisture will start to increase as early as late Sunday, but more likely into Monday and Tuesday especially along the coast. How much ground the sprawling high pressure over the Midwest gives will determine how far inland rain chances will extend.

Given the various uncertainties at play it is best to monitor forecasts daily.

National Hurricane Center indicates a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the Monday-Wednesday period:

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1