2023 EPAC Season

[Extratropical94]

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern portion of the east
Pacific. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development
during the next several days, and a tropical depression is expected
to form by midweek while the system moves west-northwestward,
roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[aspen]

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern portion of the east
Pacific. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development
during the next several days, and a tropical depression is expected
to form by midweek while the system moves west-northwestward,
roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

I’m interested to see what this one will do. It looks like it’ll be a fairly large and broad disturbance, but the upper-level outflow on the GFS looks pretty good and we saw with Adrian how a broad precursor can rapidly tighten up into a respectable hurricane. If this can tighten up, the ceiling could be quite high.

You can tell an El Niño is in effect with the quality of storms the EPac has been cranking out. TD4 and Eugene were the only systems to not hit hurricane intensity so far (Fernanda is likely a hurricane), and it’s possible we could see two more majors — Fernanda and the 30/90 AOI — in the next week.

[Yellow Evan]

Nuclear upper level environment - reminds me of Marie 14 a bit which had similar global model support long in advance. Large size is an issue, however.

[cycloneye]

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern portion of the east
Pacific. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development
during the next several days, and a tropical depression is expected
to form by midweek while the system moves west-northwestward,
roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Extratropical94]

1. Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern portion of the east
Pacific. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next few days,
while the system moves west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the
coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave continues to produce a broad area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms off the southern coasts of Mexico,
Guatemala, and El Salvador. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to
form within the next few days, while the system moves
west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Ntxw]

Fernanda beat expectations (and frankly models on intensity) and is cat 4. Potential Irwin is one to watch after she winds down.

[Ntxw]

[Kingarabian]

https://i.imgur.com/7t6x7Qp.gif

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/7t6x7Qp.gif

Looks lile is going to be a large system.

Nothing yet about Recon.

PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[cycloneye]

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing widespread showers and thunderstorms off the southern
coasts of Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form within the next few days, while the
system moves west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. South of the Bay of Campeche:
Another area of low pressure could form south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec over the weekend. Some gradual development of the
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Panoramic view.

[cycloneye]

Invest 90E is up

[cycloneye]

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec over the weekend. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Ntxw]

Looks like another long-tracker signal is on the horizon. EPAC could be near 100 ACE by month's end or sooner.

84-85 units. Maybe another 5-10 from Fernanda and Greg, then 90E should get it over 100.

[gatorcane]

More activity on tap for the EPAC even after Hilary if the GFS is correct:

[Teban54]

More activity on tap for the EPAC even after Hilary if the GFS is correct:

https://i.postimg.cc/V6HQqWLD/gfs-mslp-pcpn-epac-32.png

192 hrs on the GFS means nothing to me. Wake me up when it's less than a week.

/s

[Ntxw]

With Hilary on tap to have some impacts to the west coast, along with Hawaii this EPAC season has effected the US in multiple ways already PDO or not, it's something we often tie together with El Nino for possibilities.

Kind of hard not to think another major landfall might occur on the Mexican west coast in the coming months.

[ElectricStorm]

With the 0z BT for Hilary at 105kts, this is now the fourth major of the season and it's only mid-August. There hasn't been more than 4 majors in an EPAC season since 2018.

Could end up with an 8+ major season

[Ntxw]

EPAC crossed 100 units of ACE.