CyclonicFury wrote:Very quiet Augusts in the Atlantic (< 5 ACE) and how September followed, since 1950:
1957: 2 ACE in August, 63 ACE in September
1961: 0 ACE in August, 122 ACE in September
1967: 0 ACE in August, 97 ACE in September
1977: 3 ACE in August, 19 ACE in September
1982: 3 ACE in August, 21 ACE in September
1984: 3 ACE in August, 30 ACE in September
1988: 2 ACE in August, 71 ACE in September
1997: 0 ACE in August, 26 ACE in September
2002: 3 ACE in August, 46 ACE in September
2013: 2 ACE in August, 16 ACE in September
2018: 2 ACE in August, 72 ACE in September
The average ACE for the following September is 53, and the median ACE for the following September is 46. This is slightly lower than the 1991-2020 mean ACE for September, which is ~57, but a very quiet August is not always followed with a quiet September. In fact, some years have been quite the opposite.
After finishing with roughly 76 ACE, a respectable amount, September 2022 falls in the upper echelon of these analogs, only behind 1967 and 1961.