Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 93L)

[SFLcane]

HafsB has a strong TS almost Cat 1 into Ft Myers area.

[GCANE]

18Z GFS has pretty much knocked out the ULL in the east GoM on Tuesday

[Ianswfl]

HafsB has a strong TS almost Cat 1 into Ft Myers area.

https://i.postimg.cc/jj64HDR6/IMG-7500.jpg

Seems reasonable. Will catch a lot off guard since it's the weekend. However we need the rain. Any sustained min hurricane winds would be along the coast, inland some gusts to 80. Damage wise wouldn't be much but for the beach communities would suck for Ian recovery. based on that image probably a 65mph storm. Looks pretty disorganized and only 994mb. Doesn't get really organized until right before landfall and still looks sheared.

[Ianswfl]

Probably not going to happen but I hope that it stalls long enough to miss the trough and we can get some of that moisture to come to Texas. Central Texas coast to the Upper Texas coast is in a extreme drought right now.

Not much chance of it coming our way.

What's your current predictions of landfall location and intensity?

I recall Ian you pegged Ft. Myers pretty far out, but I remember you had the intensity a bit too low though.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the 18Z Euro is a slightly weaker again at the 72 hour mark compared to the 12Z plus it is more over the Yucatán on the 18Z which is why it is probably a bit weaker. Seems the trend with the Euro is weaker each run.

Surprised NHC went up to 70%, would have kept it at 60% until we see at least something on the GFS.

[jlauderdal]

Now can we just get some hwrf going!

At least a major into tampa or new orleans

[jfk08c]

Looks like the 18Z Euro is a slightly weaker again at the 72 hour mark compared to the 12Z plus it is more over the Yucatán on the 18Z which is why it is probably a bit weaker. Seems the trend with the Euro is weaker each run.

Surprised NHC went up to 70%, would have kept it at 60% until we see at least something on the GFS.

Might be waiting a while for that one

[jlauderdal]

Surprised the GFS is struggling so much with this one, normally it's the Euro struggling with these setups and GFS predicting genesis.

The gfs struggles in many ways, lets see how fast to catch up?

[robbielyn]

Will be interesting to see how this model pans out.
AI based Pangu
Latest run has Tampa Bay taking the hit.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/pangu ... 2308300000

Which usually means it’s not coming to tampa bay lol

[IcyTundra]

Probably not going to happen but I hope that it stalls long enough to miss the trough and we can get some of that moisture to come to Texas. Central Texas coast to the Upper Texas coast is in a extreme drought right now.

Not much chance of it coming our way.

That's what I thought just trying to wishcast lol.

[CrazyC83]

The fact that water temperatures in the low 90s lie ahead is probably why they went so high. That is rocket fuel if it can take advantage of it, but without a spark or with bad ingredients such as wind shear or dry air, nothing happens.

[SunnyThoughts]

Probably not going to happen but I hope that it stalls long enough to miss the trough and we can get some of that moisture to come to Texas. Central Texas coast to the Upper Texas coast is in a extreme drought right now.

Not much chance of it coming our way.

That's what I thought just trying to wishcast lol.

I think we are all doing a little wishcasting right now. Heat is unbearable for so many.

[jlauderdal]

Not much chance of it coming our way.

That's what I thought just trying to wishcast lol.

I think we are all doing a little wishcasting right now. Heat is unbearable for so many.

No need for it in SEFLA, we have had a very active rainy season...already past the season average at FLL

[SouthFLTropics]

Just for reference, the next name on the list for 2023 is the dreaded "I" name. Hopefully this will not live up to its predecessors. The next name is Idalia, pronounced ee-DAL-ya.

[gatorcane]

Notably weaker on the 18Z Euro compared to the 12Z:

[Ianswfl]

Notably weaker on the 18Z Euro compared to the 12Z:

https://i.postimg.cc/HsKzYjjt/ecmwf-z850-vort-watl-31.png
https://i.postimg.cc/Fz6yHnFK/ecmwf-z850-vort-watl-33.png

That's because it's moving a tad slower on the 18z so that's why it's 2mb higher due to prolong land interaction.

[Ianswfl]

18z euro ensembles not much change from 12z. More concentrated towards FL though this run.

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 8-144.html

[Kingarabian]

Notably weaker on the 18Z Euro compared to the 12Z:

https://i.postimg.cc/HsKzYjjt/ecmwf-z850-vort-watl-31.png
https://i.postimg.cc/Fz6yHnFK/ecmwf-z850-vort-watl-33.png

But could be stronger beyond 72hrs if it went that far out. It's more NW on this run which will mean more time over water.

[OuterBanker]

No HWRF until we get an invest. 12z Euro does have a cat one around Hatteras on Thursday.

[SFLcane]

That's what I thought just trying to wishcast lol.

I think we are all doing a little wishcasting right now. Heat is unbearable for so many.

No need for it in SEFLA, we have had a very active rainy season...already past the season average at FLL

Lol wait till November January when El Niños influence gets stronger. Cfs has a boat load of rain right through the holidays into next year. We’re gonna need a bigger boat!