Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 90L)

[Hypercane_Kyle]

That SW bend in the track the GFS takes this one is a little suspicious. I'd watch out for this one being weaker in the short term than maybe currently expected, especially considering Lee's surprising struggles after its RI episode.

[MetroMike]

That SW bend in the track the GFS takes this one is a little suspicious. I'd watch out for this one being weaker in the short term than maybe currently expected, especially considering Lee's surprising struggles after its RI episode.

With that in mind the trend this season is for MDR systems to go OTS. Once models show that it seems fairly clear that
Even low lat storms will be sucked up poleward. Not much drama to be had here unfortunately as the trend seems atm.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
Wednesday. Gradual development of the wave will be possible
thereafter and a tropical depression could form late this week or
next weekend while the system moves westward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

Wave is at Nigeria.

[mantis83]

That SW bend in the track the GFS takes this one is a little suspicious. I'd watch out for this one being weaker in the short term than maybe currently expected, especially considering Lee's surprising struggles after its RI episode.

With that in mind the trend this season is for MDR systems to go OTS. Once models show that it seems fairly clear that
Even low lat storms will be sucked up poleward. Not much drama to be had here unfortunately as the trend seems atm.

latest 12z euro takes this safely out to sea, as it goes well northeast of the islands

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

That SW bend in the track the GFS takes this one is a little suspicious. I'd watch out for this one being weaker in the short term than maybe currently expected, especially considering Lee's surprising struggles after its RI episode.

With that in mind the trend this season is for MDR systems to go OTS. Once models show that it seems fairly clear that
Even low lat storms will be sucked up poleward. Not much drama to be had here unfortunately as the trend seems atm.

latest 12z euro takes this safely out to sea, as it goes well northeast of the islands

No one in Bermuda would call that "safely out to sea"

[cycloneye]

The recurving pattern looks to continue.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1703507256891912229

[cycloneye]

8 PM up to 50%.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
Wednesday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development of the wave thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form late this week or next weekend while the
system moves westward across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Teban54]

Wave is at Nigeria.

https://i.imgur.com/ScLa7gT.gif

Already showing mid-level spin

[cycloneye]

For the record the 2 AM TWO with code red.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
Wednesday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development of the wave thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while
the system moves westward across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by
Wednesday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development of the wave thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while
the system moves westward across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by
Wednesday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development of the wave thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while
the system moves westward across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[aspen]

Looks like this should stay pretty weak until it gets into the central MDR. The longer this takes to develop, the further west it’ll go. Odds are it’ll be another OTS system and recurve closer to where Nigel is than Margot.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro with same track that took Nigel.

[Yellow Evan]

Not sure why the ECMWF has this intensifying in >20 knots of shear at the end of the run.

[WiscoWx02]

Model support is really dropping off with this one. Personally no longer expecting much of anything, getting to be about that time where shear starts becoming more of an issue again.

[WalterWhite]

Model support is really dropping off with this one. Personally no longer expecting much of anything, getting to be about that time where shear starts becoming more of an issue again.

The GFS has been pretty bad with genesis this year. The ECMWF, CMC, and ICON still support the development of this system.

[floridasun]

Hurricanetrack mark elnino cause weakness in Bermuda high pressure that causing hurricane move out to sea or by Bermuda we may keep having those ots hurr for Cape verb season

[cycloneye]

8 PM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by
Wednesday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development of the wave thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while
the system moves westward across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.