Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 95L)

[aspen]

18z GFS is back to no development, but gets a MDR hurricane out of the wave behind it.

[MetroMike]

18z GFS is back to no development, but gets a MDR hurricane out of the wave behind it.

Not sure if this thread is for the 2nd wave you mention, but that one comes much further west and south than the 12z GFS did.

[cycloneye]

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
this weekend. Environmental conditions could support some gradual
development of this system through the middle part of next week
while it moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern and
central portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Hurricane Mike]

August 31st 11pm Video Update on Tropics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02zffb3RSKw

[cycloneye]

A powerful hurricane to the Caribbean.

[mantis83]

A powerful hurricane to the Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/kvZMupk.gif

headed for the shredder on the gfs, canadian is well north of the islands about to recurve out to sea

[IcyTundra]

A powerful hurricane to the Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/kvZMupk.gif

headed for the shredder on the gfs, canadian is well north of the islands about to recurve out to sea

A hurricane that strong wouldn't completely die over Hispanola would just weaken it a lot.

[Meteorcane]

Even in the medium range (~6 days) there are pretty large forecast differences regarding the overall synoptic pattern in the Central Atlantic which translate to significant differences in the long-range track of this system. The GFS keeps this disturbance somewhat weak initially but also sees ridging build north of it, due to the remnants of Gert being swept generally E-NE with Idalia's remnants and therefore Gert's remnants are not strong/enough to create a weakness to lift this disturbance north and the Azores high remains in place .

Conversely the Canadian and EC depict Gert's remnants being amplified enough to create a weakness, and also develop this wave faster, which results in a track much further north. Who would have thought that the G-named storm would be impacting the future of the (probably) L-named storm... what a weird pattern in the Central Atlantic with so many system's/remnants of systems present at the same time. I guess the question is will the cyclone train, shift far enough north to allow the ridge to build under it (and additionally how quickly will this system get organized)? The ensembles seem to favor the northerly solution at the moment but I wouldn't write it in stone.

[cycloneye]

A powerful hurricane to the Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/kvZMupk.gif

headed for the shredder on the gfs, canadian is well north of the islands about to recurve out to sea

A hurricane that strong wouldn't completely die over Hispanola would just weaken it a lot.

It did that and is with 993 mbs in the Bahamas.

[caneman]

A powerful hurricane to the Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/kvZMupk.gif

headed for the shredder on the gfs, canadian is well north of the islands about to recurve out to sea

This is a common myth that people love to repeat. Many storms having gone over those islands have re-generated. I would argue far more do than don't.

[emeraldislenc]

I get so tired of hearing about the shredder about as much hearing every storm called a fish before it even forms. Many storms survived after Haiti and not all storms are fish!

[mantis83]

gfs does indeed restrengthen it after hitting the big island, but still finds a way to recurve away from the east coast at the last minute....way out in time i'm sure it'll change tho

[underthwx]

Now at 40% per NHC Outlook...

[weeniepatrol]

It's a truly wonderful thing we have the shredder (as if the people on that island are not devastated by even weak tropical cyclone impacts or anything) to prevent systems like Laura 2020 from significantly impacting the US. Oh... wait.....,

[underthwx]

It's a truly wonderful thing we have the shredder (as if the people on that island are not devastated by even weak tropical cyclone impacts or anything) to prevent systems like Laura 2020 from significantly impacting the US. Oh... wait.....,

What's the shredder?

[weeniepatrol]

It's a truly wonderful thing we have the shredder (as if the people on that island are not devastated by even weak tropical cyclone impacts or anything) to prevent systems like Laura 2020 from significantly impacting the US. Oh... wait.....,

What's the shredder?

The island of Hispaniola in the Greater Antilles (consisting of the countries of Haiti & the Dominican Republic), dubbed as such due to its extremely mountainous terrain which disrupts the circulations of tropical cyclones that pass near or over.

But we've seen plenty of times recently that this disruption does NOT mean few impacts down the line.

[LarryWx]

The conservative UKMET (0Z) is once again pretty strong with this, which just about all models develop:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 10.9N 22.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2023 60 11.4N 24.8W 1008 37
0000UTC 04.09.2023 72 10.8N 27.6W 1008 32
1200UTC 04.09.2023 84 11.6N 31.6W 1008 31
0000UTC 05.09.2023 96 12.3N 35.1W 1006 34
1200UTC 05.09.2023 108 13.0N 39.3W 1005 35
0000UTC 06.09.2023 120 13.7N 42.6W 1005 31
1200UTC 06.09.2023 132 13.9N 45.5W 1001 37
0000UTC 07.09.2023 144 14.5N 48.1W 1000 39
1200UTC 07.09.2023 156 15.3N 50.6W 997 51
0000UTC 08.09.2023 168 16.2N 53.3W 997 47

[mantis83]

euro develops this strongly well north of the islands, similar to cmc,with a weakness off the east coast, would probably recurve past 240

[chris_fit]

This is farrrr from a guaranteed fish.

00z GEFS




00Z EPS - Not so Fishy

[aspen]

The models are way less fishy this morning because they’re taking Idalia out of the picture quicker. Runs from yesterday were showing it looping around and possibly even impacting New England. Now they’re having a harder time regenerating it, and are leaning towards an OTS dissipation track. Without Idalia to keep an escape route open, future Katia/Lee is less likely to be a perfectly safe OTS MDR system.